US embassy cable - 01HARARE125

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000125 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/08/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT:  ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH 
CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS 
 
REF: HARARE 114 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00125  01 OF 03  091359Z 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE INDEPENDENT PRESS HAS 
CRITICIZED THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE 
(MDC) FOR FUMBLING ALONG WITHOUT ANY SENSE OF URGENCY OR 
DIRECTION.  MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHQ NCUBQTRONGLY 
REJECTED THE CRITICISM, SAYING SOME WERE UNDERSTANDABLY 
FRUSTRATED WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE ECONOMY AND 
CONTINUED GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED LAWLESSNESS, AND WITH THE 
OPPOSITION PARTY'S INABILITY TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT.   HE 
INSISTED THAT THE PARTY WAS ORGANIZING ENERGETICALLY IN 
RUQL AREAS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION.  MDC MP TENDAI BITI ADMITTED THAT THE MDC HAD 
BEEN ADRIFT FROM SEPTEMBER THROUGH DECEMBER, BUT CLAIMED 
THAT IT HAD AWAKENED FROM ITS SLUMBER.  SINCE IT WON 57 
SEATS IN PARLIAMENT IN JUNE 2000, THE MDC APPEARS TO HAVE 
GAINED MIDDLE CLASS SUPPORT, AND SOME RURAL AREAS, WHERE 
MANY ANGRY RESIDENTS WERE UNABLE TO AFFORD BREAD DURING THE 
HOLIDAY SEASON, ARE PROVING TO BE INCREASINGLY FERTILE 
GROUND.  AT THE SAME TIME, IN ORDER TO ASSUAGE SUPPORTERS 
FRUSTRATED ABOUT THE LACK OF CHANGE, THE MDC MUST DO A 
BETTER JOB OF EXPLAINING TO ITS SUPPORTERS THE LIMITED ROLE 
IT CAN PLAY AS AN OPPOSITION PARTY.   END SUMMARY. 
 
MDC ADRIFT?... 
-------------- 
 
2.  (U)  IN RECENT WEEKS, THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) HAS BEEN STRONGLY CRITICIZED IN THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00125  01 OF 03  091359Z 
INDEPENDENT MEDIA FOR NOT ENERGETICALLY CONSOLIDATING ITS 
SUPPORT IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS.   IN LATE DECEMBER, THE INFLUENTIAL WEEKLY "THE 
FINANCIAL GAZETTE" CARRIED A STINGING FRONT PAGE STORY 
URGING THE MDC TO SHAPE UP OR TO GO.  THE ARTICLE ACCUSED 
THE OPPOSITION PARTY OF FUMBLING ALONG WITHOUT ANY SENSE OF 
URGENCY OR DIRECTION, OF MAKING ILL-CONSIDERED PUBLIC 
STATEMENTS, AND OF LETTING ITS SUPPORTERS DOWN BY FAILING 
TO PURSUE ITS LONG-PROMISED MASS ACTION.   ON JANUARY 3, 
THE "DAILY NEWS" CARRIED A SCATHING POLITICAL CARTOON 
ENTITLED "PREPARING FOR ELECTION 2002."  IT PORTRAYED THE 
MDC AS A FAT MAN IN A DEEP SLUMBER OVER A SIGN SAYING "DO 
NOT DISTURB, WE ONLY WAKE UP WHEN THERE IS BOOING TO DO IN 
PARLIAMENT."  ZANU-PF, ON THE OTHER HAND, WAS PORTRAYED AS 
A MUSCLE-BOUND MAN LIFTING WEIGHTS INTENSIVELY IN 
PREPARATION FOR 2002. 
 
...WHILE MUGABE CONSOLIDATES CONTROL OF ZANU-PF 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
3.  (C) WHILE THE MDC APPEARED TO BE STUMBLING, PRESIDENT 
MUGABE WAS BUSY CONSOLIDATING HIS CONTROL OVER THE RULING 
PARTY.  HE USED ZANU-PF'S EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS IN 
DECEMBER TO QUASH GROWING DISSENT WITH HIS LEADERSHIP, 
ELEVATING TO THE PARTY'S SUPREME DECISION-MAKING BODY CLOSE 
ALLIES SUCH AS PARLIAMENT SPEAKER EMMERSON MNANGAGWA AND 
YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI, AND EXPELLING 
THOSE, SUCH AS EDDISON ZVOBGO, WHOSE LOYALTIES TO MUGABE 
WERE WANING.  MUGABE ALSO SQUELCHED ANY POTENTIAL 
CHALLENGES TO HIM AS THE PARTY'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN 
2002.  MUGABE'S SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF HIS CONTROL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00125  01 OF 03  091359Z 
OVER THE RULING PARTY, COMBINED WITH THE PARTY'S VICTORY IN 
THE SPECIAL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION IN MARONDERA IN NOVEMBER 
(ALBEIT A VICTORY ACHIEVED THROUGH VIOLENCE AND 
INTIMIDATION) CONTRIBUTED TO A PUBLIC PERCEPTION THAT ZANU- 
PF HAD REGAINED A DEGREE OF POLITICAL MOMENTUM. 
 
CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS 
---------------------- 
 
4.  (C) MUCH OF THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA'S CRITICISM OF THE 
MDC IS ROOTED IN A GENUINE FRUSTRATION THAT, DESPITE THE 
MDC'S WINNING NEARLY HALF THE CONTESTED SEATS IN 
PARLIAMENT, THE ECONOMY HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND 
GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED LAWLESSNESS IN RURAL AREAS HAS 
CONTINUED UNABATED.  OUR MDC CONTACTS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT 
SOME OF THE CRITICISM WAS JUSTIFIED, BUT POINTED OUT THAT 
IT IS SIMPLY UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT AN OPPOSITION PARTY 
WITHOUT ACCESS TO GOVERNMENT RESOURCES -- AND IN DIRE 
FINANCIAL STRAITS ITSELF -- TO DELIVER JOBS, BETTER ROADS, 
AND HEALTH CARE.  MOREOVER, THESE CONTACTS INSISTED, THE 
MDC IS NOW WORKING ENERGETICALLY THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY TO 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5113 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00125  02 OF 03  091359Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  DS-00    FBIE-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   NSAE-00  IRM-00   SSO-00 
      SS-00    DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /002W 
                  ------------------B40202  091359Z /38 
P 091359Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7971 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000125 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/08/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT:  ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH 
CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS 
 
PREPARE FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
 
5.  (C)  TENDAI BITI, WHO REPRESENTS THE MDC IN PARLIAMENT 
AND SERVES AS THE PARTY'S SHADOW FOREIGN MINISTER, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00125  02 OF 03  091359Z 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE PARTY EXPERIENCED A SLUMP FROM 
SEPTEMBER THROUGH DECEMBER OF LAST YEAR.  HE ATTRIBUTED THE 
SLUMP TO EXHAUSTION IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS AND TO A CRISIS OF LEADERSHIP, RESULTING FROM THE 
ELECTION OF MANY OF THE MDC'S MOST CAPABLE LEADERS TO 
PARLIAMENT, AN INSTITUTION WHICH CONSUMED THEIR ATTENTION 
AND ALLOWED LITTLE TIME FOR GRASS-ROOTS PARTY-BUILDING. 
IN ADDITION, BITI CRITICIZED MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI FOR TAKING A NUMBER OF FOREIGN TRIPS THAT WERE 
 
SIPDIS 
NOT SANCTIONED BY THE PARTY AND DID NOT APPEAR TO HAVE 
CLEAR OBJECTIVES.  HE SINGLED OUT FOR PARTICULAR CRITICISM 
TSVANGIRAI'S MEETING WITH RENAMO LEADER DHLAKAMA IN SOUTH 
 
SIPDIS 
AFRICA, CALLING IT "COMPLETELY PREMATURE."   BITI ALSO 
CRITICIZED SOME OF HIS MDC PARLIAMENTARY COLLEAGUES FOR NOT 
MEETING FREQUENTLY ENOUGH WITH THEIR CONSTITUENTS. 
 
6.  (C)  THE MDC IS CURRENTLY HAVING TO WALK A VERY NARROW 
TIGHTROPE.  IF THE PARTY MOVES TOO AGGRESSIVELY IN 
ORGANIZING MASS ACTION INTENDED TO PRESSURE PRESIDENT 
MUGABE TO STEP DOWN, THE GOVERNMENT ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD 
RESPOND WITH OVERWHELMING FORCE, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT 
BLOODSHED AND PROVIDING A PRETEXT TO CLOSE DOWN THE MDC, 
WHICH COULD SET BACK THE PARTY'S DEVELOPMENT SEVERAL YEARS. 
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE OPPOSITION PARTY MOVES TOO SLOWLY 
IN PRESSING FOR CHANGE, IT RISKS ALIENATING ITS SUPPORTERS. 
THE BEST WAY TO NEGOTIATE THAT TIGHTROPE SUCCESSFULLY, BITI 
BELIEVED, IS TO RETURN TO BASICS BY IDENTIFYING THE ISSUES 
OF CORE CONCERN TO ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS -- THE ECONOMY, 
INCLUDING THE LAND ISSUE, MISGOVERNANCE, AND THE NEED FOR 
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM -- AND TO COMMUNICATE REGULARLY WITH 
VOTERS A CLEAR MDC POSITION ON THOSE ISSUES.  BITI NOTED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00125  02 OF 03  091359Z 
THAT THE MDC'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE HAD AGREED TO 
FORM FOR EACH PROVINCE OUTREACH TEAMS CHARGED WITH TAKING 
THE MDC'S MESSAGE TO RURAL ZIMBABWEANS. 
 
7.  (C) IN A JANUARY 5 CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF, MDC 
SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE STRONGLY DISAGREED WITH 
 
SIPDIS 
THE ASSESSMENT THAT THE MDC IS RESTING ON ITS LAURELS.  HE 
ATTRIBUTED THAT PERCEPTION PRIMARILY TO INDEPENDENT MEDIA 
JOURNALISTS WHO, HE SAID, HAD BECOME INCREASINGLY 
FRUSTRATED WITH THE MDC'S INABILITY TO EFFECT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GOVERNMENT'S DISASTROUS POLICIES. 
NCUBE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE OPPOSITION PARTY COULD HAVE 
DONE A BETTER JOB OF COMMUNICATING WITH THE MEDIA, AND WAS 
MOVING TO ADDRESS THIS SHORTCOMING BY ORGANIZING MEETINGS 
BETWEEN THE SENIOR MDC LEADERSHIP AND THE EDITORS OF THE 
MAJOR INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS.  NCUBE REGRETTED THAT 
"CARELESS" STATEMENTS BY MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI 
HAD PROVIDED RICH FODDER FOR CRITICISM, PARTICULARLY 
TSVANGIRAI'S PREDICTION THAT MUGABE WOULD BE OUT OF OFFICE 
 
SIPDIS 
BY DECEMBER 2000. 
 
8.  (C)  NCUBE INSISTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE MDC HAD WORKED 
SUCCESSFULLY TO STRENGTHEN ITS SUPPORT SINCE THE 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS LAST JUNE.   HE AND PARTY VICE- 
PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, HE SAID, HAD SPENT EVERY WEEKEND 
SINCE JUNE IN CITIES AND TOWNS THROUGHOUT ZIMBABWE CARRYING 
THE MDC'S MESSAGE, AND HE HAD OBSERVED A NOTICEABLE 
INCREASE IN THE NUMBERS AND DIVERSITY OF PEOPLE AT THEIR 
RALLIES.   AS AN EXAMPLE OF THE PARTY'S GROWING 
ORGANIZATIONAL STRENGTH, NCUBE POINTED OUT THAT THE MDC NOW 
HAS IN PLACE IN MOST OF ZIMBABWE'S EIGHT PROVINCES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00125  02 OF 03  091359Z 
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEES AT THE VILLAGE, WARD, AND CAPITAL CITY 
LEVELS. 
 
MASVINGO KEY PROVINCE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
9.  (C)  ACCORDING TO NCUBE, THE MDC IS NOW FOCUSING 
INTENSIVELY ON BUILDING SUPPORT FOR THE UPCOMING 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  THE MDC BELIEVES IT CURRENTLY 
ENJOYS 90% SUPPORT IN MATABELELAND NORTH AND MATABELELAND 
SOUTH, 55-65% SUPPORT IN MIDLANDS, 60-70% IN MANICALAND, 
AND 50% IN MASVINGO.  THE PARTY HOPES IT CAN WIN 35-40% OF 
THE VOTES IN ZANU-PF'S STRONGHOLDS IN MASHONALAND EAST, 
WEST, AND CENTRAL, BUT NCUBE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THAT WOULD BE AN 
UPHILL STRUGGLE, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE GOVERNMENT'S TACTIC 
OF INTIMIDATING OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS INTO STAYING AWAY 
FROM THE POLLS.   IN THE END, NCUBE IS CONVINCED THAT 
MASVINGO WILL BE THE KEY BATTLEGROUND PROVINCE, AS IT IS 
THE MOST POPULOUS AND BECAUSE THE RECENT EXPULSION OF 
NATIVE SON POLITICIAN EDDISON ZVOBGO FROM THE ZANU-PF 
POLITBURO MIGHT NUDGE FENCE-SITTING VOTERS INTO THE MDC 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5115 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00125  03 OF 03  091400Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  DS-00    FBIE-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   NSAE-00  IRM-00   SSO-00 
      SS-00    DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /002W 
                  ------------------B40221  091400Z /38 
P 091359Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7972 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000125 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/08/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT:  ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH 
CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS 
 
CAMP. 
 
MDC GAINING STRENGTH 
-------------------- 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00125  03 OF 03  091400Z 
 
10.  (C) INDEPENDENT OBSERVERS AGREE THAT THE PARTY REMAINS 
POPULAR, ALTHOUGH THE MDC HAS MUCH WORK TO DO TO 
CONSOLIDATE ITS GAINS OF LAST JUNE.  UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE 
POLITICAL SCIENTIST JOHN MAKUMBE MAINTAINS THAT THE MDC HAS 
GAINED STRENGTH SINCE JUNE.  ACCORDING TO MAKUMBE, MANY 
ZIMBABWEANS WHO SYMPATHIZED WITH THE MDC DID NOT VOTE FOR 
IT BECAUSE THEY DID NOT THINK IT STOOD A CHANCE, AND WERE 
GREATLY SURPRISED WHEN THE PARTY WON 57 SEATS.  AS A RESULT 
OF THE MDC'S ELECTORAL SUCCESS, AN INCREASING NUMBER OF 
VOTERS ARE NOW CONVINCED THAT THE PARTY PROVIDES A CREDIBLE 
ALTERNATIVE TO THE CURRENT REGIME.  IN PARTICULAR, THE MDC 
IS GAINING GROUND AMONG THE MIDDLE CLASS, WHICH DURING THE 
PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN WAS SKEPTICAL OF MORGAN TSVANGIRAI'S 
INTELLECTUAL HEFT, BUT IS NOW CONVINCED AFTER THE "ANNUS 
HORRIBILIS" OF 2000 THAT "EVEN AN IDIOT WOULD BE BETTER 
THAN MUGABE."   MAKUMBE CONTENDED THAT THE MDC IS BEGINNING 
TO ATTRACT SUPPORT FROM BLACK AND WHITE ZIMBABWEAN 
BUSINESSMEN LIVING ABROAD WHO HAVE BEEN CONVINCED THAT THE 
PARTY WOULD PURSUE RATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES, AND TO MAKE 
INROADS WITH INCREASINGLY ANGRY RURAL RESIDENTS, MANY OF 
WHOM COULD NOT EVEN AFFORD TO BUY BREAD DURING THE HOLIDAY 
SEASON.   IN ADDITION, ACCORDING TO MAKUMBE, THE MDC IS 
DEMONSTRATING MATURITY BY TRYING TO WOO THE ARMY, BOTH VIA 
PUBLIC STATEMENTS ABOUT THE IMPORTANT ROLE OF THE MILITARY, 
AND IN QUIET BEHIND-THE-SCENES DISCUSSIONS. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
11.  (C) FOR AN OPPOSITION PARTY THAT IS LITTLE MORE THAN A 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00125  03 OF 03  091400Z 
YEAR OLD, THE MDC HAS ACHIEVED SOME IMPRESSIVE INROADS.  IT 
CONVINCED VOTERS TO REJECT A DRAFT CONSTITUTION THAT WOULD 
HAVE FURTHER STRENGTHENED PRESIDENTIAL POWERS.  IT WON 57 
OF THE 120 CONTESTED SEATS IN PARLIAMENT, BREATHING NEW 
LIFE INTO AN INSTITUTION THAT HAD BEEN MERELY A RUBBER 
STAMP FOR THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH, SUBJECTING THE GOVERNMENT 
TO SCRUTINY AND GENERATING A NEW INTEREST IN PARLIAMENT AND 
POLITICS.  THE MDC HAS PROVIDED AN ALTERNATIVE VOICE TO 
ZANU-PF, AND PARLIAMENT HAS PROVIDED LEGITIMACY TO THAT 
VOICE.  ONE OF THE MAJOR ISSUES OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, -- THE 
FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE -- IS BEING CONDUCTED 
EXTRANEOUS TO PARLIAMENT -- AND, INDEED, THE JUDICIAL 
BRANCH -- AS GOVERNMENT RESOURCES ARE OSTENSIBLY BEING 
DEPLOYED IN SUPPORT OF THE LAWLESSNESS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS. 
IT IS IMPERATIVE FOR THE MDC'S OWN RELEVANCE THAT THE PARTY 
SHIFT THE DEBATE ON LAND BACK INTO PARLIAMENT.  SHINING A 
SPOTLIGHT ON THE DELETERIOUS IMPACT OF THE FAST TRACK 
APPROACH ON THE ECONOMY AND THE RULE OF LAW, AND OFFERING A 
CLEAR, RATIONAL ALTERNATIVE PROGRAM WOULD HAVE A POWERFUL 
RESONANCE WITH THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF ZIMBABWEANS WHO 
ARE FED UP WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S POLITICAL MANIPULATION OF 
THE LAND ISSUE. 
 
12.  (C) THE MDC REMAINS POPULAR, AS FRUSTRATION MOUNTS IN 
MOST SECTORS OF ZIMBABWE'S POPULATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S 
POLICIES.  AT THE SAME TIME, THE MDC LEADERSHIP RECOGNIZES 
THAT, IF IT INTENDS TO REMAIN VIABLE AND REGAIN POLITICAL 
MOMENTUM, IT HAS SOME PUBLIC RELATIONS WORK TO DO WITH ITS 
SUPPORTERS -- VIA THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, WORD OF MOUTH, AND 
REGULAR MEETINGS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY -- IN EXPLAINING 
WHAT ROLE IT CAN PLAY AS AN OPPOSITION PARTY AND THAT IT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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CANNOT BRING THE KIND OF CHANGE THEY ARE DEMANDING WHILE IN 
THE MINORITY. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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