US embassy cable - 04AMMAN1737

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 001737 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN CIVIL SOCIETY REPS QUESTION U.S. STAYING 
POWER ON DEMOCRATIC REFORM 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.5 (b) (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  Jordanian civil society reps told U/S Grossman March 3 
that they supported reforms in the Middle East, but saw deep 
mistrust of U.S. motives among Arabs.  Most doubted the 
ability of the U.S. to carry through on its commitments to 
democratic reform.  Many asked that the U.S. not impose ideas 
from outside, although one thought that the West should 
encourage faster reform.  All mentioned that a just solution 
to the Arab-Israeli conflict was central to regional 
perceptions of U.S. motives, U.S. credibility, and the 
success of reform efforts in the region.  END SUMMARY 
 
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WE SUPPORT REFORM IN PRINCIPLE, BUT... 
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2.  (C)  U/S Marc Grossman met with a group of Jordanian NGO 
and civil society activists in Amman March 3 to discuss how 
to promote and support reform in the region.  He outlined the 
key principles underpinning his trip:  the best ideas will 
come from the region; real, lasting reform takes time and is 
never completely finished; the Greater Middle East initiative 
(GME) is not a substitute for progress in the Arab-Israeli 
conflict, but the conflict should not be an excuse to 
postpone reform; the U.S. is acting now because the 
conversation on reform in the region has already begun and 
will not stop. 
 
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SHORT U.S. ATTENTION SPAN CREATES MONSTERS 
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3.  (C)  The groups responses followed several themes.  All 
supported in general the idea of reform in the Middle East, 
and agreed that while there is a conversation on democracy 
and reform, it lagged far behind the rest of the world. 
Nearly all, however, expressed strong doubts about the 
ability of the USG to follow through on its rhetoric to 
support reform in the Middle East, or regain the credibility 
it needs to press its ideas.  One journalist commented that, 
when the U.S. is forced to choose between its interests and 
its principles, "its interests always win." 
 
4.  (C)  Several participants argued that U.S. policies in 
the region create monsters because the U.S. loses interest 
and fails to complete its job.  Usama Bin Laden, several 
argued, was "made in America" as a convenient tool to use 
against the Soviet Union.  Once the Cold War was won, the 
U.S. merely cast him aside:  "if you raise a lion cub then 
let it loose in the neighborhood, it will attack the 
neighbors, and maybe even you."  Others echoed these thoughts 
with regard to Saddam Hussein, whom most believed the U.S. 
had supported in the 1980's as a counterweight to the Islamic 
revolution in Iran.  Again, according to this argument, when 
Iran was weakened, the U.S. lost focus on Iraq, and Saddam 
was permitted to develop WMD and invade Kuwait.  The group 
feared that the U.S. reform effort could also end badly for 
the region.  A human rights activist said that most Arabs 
understand the term democracy to mean free elections, and 
democratic reforms run the risk of replacing "the tyranny of 
an individual with the tyranny of the majority." 
 
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NO TO IMPOSITION OF DEMOCRACY 
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5.  (C)  Nearly all participant asked the U.S. not to impose 
reforms on the region.  This, they argued, could lead to a 
popular backlash that would undermine the reforms themselves. 
 Even if the U.S. seeks to consult, one academic noted, the 
size and power of the U.S. "on the receiving end is 
overwhelming" and makes even friendly advice seem like 
dictates.  While most Arabs believe that reform and democracy 
are needed, most also reject the Western model of democracy 
because of popular objections to U.S. policy and "hegemony" 
in the region.  The lack of U.S. credibility in the region is 
a major impediment to the success of democratic reform. 
 
6.  (C)  One academic disagreed and said he would be 
disappointed if the U.S. was seeking to support only locally 
produced reforms.  "If you wait for us to democratize, reform 
will take too long."  He encouraged the U.S. to push the 
governments of the region toward faster and deeper change. 
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U.S. POLICIES HAVE HURT DEMOCRACY IN THE REGION 
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7.  (C)  Many Arabs believe that the U.S. is "better off 
without democracy" in the region because it can more easily 
manipulate dictatorial regimes, and therefore question the 
sincerity of the U.S. initiative.  The U.S., several argued, 
has historically supported regimes in the Middle East that 
repressed free political expression.  One businessman noted 
that he was taught by his parents never to go into politics 
even in a time of political openness because that openness 
always ended, and those who went too far were always punished 
-- they would be jailed, or they and their families would 
never be permitted to establish a good career.  It will take 
time for Arabs to get over their mistrust of the U.S., and of 
their own governments. 
 
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...AND DON'T FORGET ISRAEL-PALESTINE 
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8.  (C)  Most participants agreed that "the core of our 
problem is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," which the U.S. 
must address if the GME is to have any credibility.  For many 
years, one academic argued, Arab regimes supported by the 
U.S. told their people that they had to sacrifice political 
and economic development in order to "solve the Arab-Israeli 
problem through arms."  Arabs were told that democratic 
reform and economic prosperity would come after a "just" 
settlement.  Much of the anger at the U.S., a former diplomat 
argued, is due to "the undeserved support of the U.S. for 
Israel."  "The belief that ignorance and backwardness are the 
source of terrorism is wrong:  they only provide a source for 
recruitment," but the Arab-Israeli conflict drives Arab anger. 
 
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FOCUS ON WOMEN 
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9.  (C)  One women's right activist asked that the U.S. focus 
the GME on women "not only as half the population, but as 
those who raise the other half of the population, including 
suicide bombers."  She wondered what kind of values the 
mothers of suicide bombers had taught them in their 
childhood, and hoped that women educated to be modern and 
tolerant would teach their children those same principles. 
 
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PARTICIPANTS 
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10.  (U)  U.S. 
 
U/S Marc Grossman 
Amb. Edward W. Gnehm 
NSC Staffer Dan Fried 
NEA DAS Alina Romanowski 
EUR A/DAS Glyn Davies 
P Special Assistant Jonathan Carpenter 
A/DCM Doug Silliman (notetaker) 
PAO Haynes Mahoney 
 
JORDAN 
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Nancy Bakir, Women's Rights Activist and human rights advisor 
to the PM 
Dr. Mohammad Kheir Mustafa, Professor, Jordan University 
Amb. Hassan Abu Nimeh, former Jordanian PermRep to the UN, 
New York 
Jamal Tahat, NGO head and Director, Strategic Studies Center, 
National Defense College 
Nidal Mansour, Committee for the Defense of the Freedom of 
Journalists 
Bassem Sakijha, Transparency International, columnist 
Walid al-Turk, World Affairs Council, businessman 
 
11.  (U)  U/S Grossman has cleared this message. 
 
Visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at 
 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ 
 
or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET 
home page. 
HALE