US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO1518

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 001518 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #26: MEJIA CLOSES DEAL - FELLO 
IS RUNNING MATE 
 
REF: A. SANTO DOMINGO 1319 
 
     B. SANTO DOMINGO 1300 
 
1. (U) This is no. 26 in our series on the Dominican 
presidential election: 
 
MEJIA CLOSES DEAL; FELLO IS RUNNING MATE 
 
(U) PRD Secretary General Rafael "Fello" Subervi Bonilla has 
agreed to become President Mejia's running mate in the May 16 
election" for the sake of PRD unity and keeping the party in 
power." This follows weeks of back-room parlays. Subervi had 
opposed re-nomination of the President and competed with 
Mejia for the PRD presidential nomination, but the PRD 
leadership had kept bridges open by naming Subervi Secretary 
General of the Party in January.  Mejia and advisors made a 
well-publicized pilgrimage to Fello's home on March 3 to 
offer the VP nomination, which Fello had previously insisted 
he would never accept.  To no one's surprise, on March 4 he 
announced on national television his acceptance. Subervi cast 
himself as a PRD apostle with 43 years of unwavering, 
unblemished service, pursuing the virtually unattainable holy 
grail of party unity. The 35-minute talk was as long as 
Mejia's state-of-the-republic address.  Partisans in the 
studio supported him with applause and campaign chants. 
 
(SBU) Fello played hard poker until the last minute.  His 
rumored winnings:  RD pesos 70 million (US $1.4 million) in 
"campaign funds" to cover his expenses to date and an 
undisclosed number of government positions for his followers. 
A PRD insider tells us he wants for his supporters 9 
provincial governorships, the Consulate in Miami, and the 
Ministry of Tourism (his post for the last 4 years).  Subervi 
denied getting any payoff but left the door ajar for future 
distribution of patronage. Mejia also denied having made any 
such commitments.  An adviser to Subervi told poloff that 
Mejia would announce cabinet changes as early as March 9 
(Mejia assured the Ambassador in late February that changes 
were imminent). Some will probably benefit Subervi's faction. 
 
 
(SBU) Whether the canny, sleazy Fello can salvage the 
President's re-election bid is doubtful.  Chief adversary, 
former president Leonel Fernandez (PLD), is reminding 
everyone that he scored 63 percent of voter intentions in the 
latest poll, far ahead of Mejia and Eduardo Estrella (PRSC) 
with 15 percent each.  Subervi's rejection rate was 79 
percent, close to Mejia's 86 percent.  Some 42 percent of PRD 
voters in 2000 (and almost as many PRSC) said they would 
switch to the PLD in 2004.   PLD Secretary General Reynaldo 
Pared Perez told poloff March 4 that, in light of this and 
other credible polls, "only an act of God" could prevent a 
Fernandez victory May 16 or in a second round June 30.  In 
his call on the Department on March 2 Fernandez stressed the 
need to keep the elections honest. 
 
(C) Mejia and his inner circle have poo-pooed the polls and 
shown a resolute face of optimism.  Labor Minister Ray 
Guevara stressed to the Ambassador on March 6 that PRD 
affiliates number 1.4 million and the challenge is to get 
them to vote rather than to abstain; he sees the PRD's 
natural strength as almost 45 percent of the expected votes. 
Mejia's reach for party unity was a major objective of his 
February 27 state-of-the-republic message, and his choice of 
Fello has the same purpose. Another adviser assured poloff on 
March 3 that Hipolito and Fello together "will unify more 
than 95 percent" of the party.  This advisor asserts that the 
President's  relentless series of trips to the provinces to 
inaugurate  piped water systems, roads, bridges, schools, and 
other public works will catapult him into first place.  With 
factional splits healed, the PRD masses will mobilize, and 
then "there is no way" Fernandez can win. 
 
(SBU) Bravado aside, the Mejia-Subervi campaign team is 
trying to patch the gaps in its base.  Subervi in his 
acceptance speech called on PRD mavericks Hatuey De Camps and 
Vice President Milagros Ortiz-Bosch to support the mainline 
PRD candidates.  Ortiz-Bosch has released her followers to 
vote their consciences and party matron Peggy Cabral (wife of 
the late, hallowed Pena Gomez) is promoting Milagros for the 
party presidency. One of our contacts says that Milagros may 
be invited now to chair the November PRD national convention 
in November.  Mejia visited former vice president and 
dissident PRSC leader Carlos Morales Troncoso March 4 to 
explore a cross-party alliance that might undercut Fernandez. 
 
(C) Subervi, 61, has been a PRD militant since his law school 
days in the 1960s.  He has served as Secretary of State for 
Tourism (twice), Mayor of Santo Domingo (two four-year terms) 
and deputy in the lower house of Congress (two 
non-consecutive terms).  To our certain knowledge his closest 
collaborators sought hefty payoffs to influence decisions on 
municipal procurement and tourism concessions; they probably 
obtained many and probably shared those with Subervi. He 
belongs to a prominent Barahona family and is an officer in 
several family-owned companies.  He is married and has three 
children.  He does not speak English. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
HERTELL