US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO406

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000406 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, S/CT, SA/INS, INR/NESA 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:           DECL:  03/08/14 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINR, MOPS, CE, NO, Elections, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka:  Ignoring orders of LTTE 
leadership, rebel commander remains ensconced in east 
 
Refs:  (A) Ops Center - Colombo 03/08/2004 telecon 
 
-      (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 060831Z Mar 04 
-      (C) Oslo 419 
-      (D) Colombo 387, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Charge'd'Affaires James F. Entwistle. 
Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The main Tamil Tiger organization in 
the north announced March 6 that it was replacing a 
dissident commander.  The commander, Karuna, has refused 
to step down, however, and remains ensconced in his 
eastern jungle base.  No violence has been reported, but 
the situation is becoming increasingly tense in the 
east.  The GSL has indicated that it has no plans to 
deal directly with Karuna despite his requests that it 
do so.  In the meantime, the campaign for the April 2 
parliamentary elections proceeds apace in the rest of 
the country.  Karuna's split from the main LTTE 
organization appears to be the most serious internal 
crisis ever faced by the group.  If there is no 
resolution to the situation, there will almost certainly 
be complications for the peace track down the road.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
==================================== 
LTTE Acts to replace Rebel Commander 
==================================== 
 
2.  (U) The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have 
reacted to eastern military commander Karuna's recent 
moves to separate his command from the main organization 
(see Ref D).  On March 6, LTTE Political chief S.P. 
Thamilchelvam, speaking at a press conference held in 
the northern LTTE-controlled town of Kilinochchi, 
announced that Karuna had been removed from his 
position.  An official statement posted on the pro-Tiger 
website "TamilNet" explained the decision in the 
following (choppy) manner: 
 
"Mr. Karuna, who was commander of Batticaloa-Ampara, 
instigated by some malicious elements opposed to the 
Tamil Eelam liberation struggle, acting traitorously to 
the Tamil people and the Tamil Eelam national 
leadership, has planned to secede himself from the 
liberation organization.  The commanders, divisional 
heads and cadres under him unable to acquiesce with his 
traitorous act have refused to comply with his orders 
and met with the national leadership, and explained the 
ground reality prevailing there.  In accordance with 
this, Karuna has been discharged from the Liberation 
Tiger organization and relieved from official 
responsibilities." 
 
3.  (U) The LTTE statement went on to name Ramesh 
(formerly Karuna's deputy) as "special commander" of the 
Batticaloa/Ampara sector, Karuna's former political 
adviser Kaushlyan was retained as political head, and 
two other cadre, Ram and Prabha, were named as commander 
and deputy commander respectively.  Speaking at the 
press conference following the announcement of Karuna's 
expulsion from the Tigers, Ramesh stated "the decision 
Karuna has made is his own.  He has not discussed this 
with the leadership.  The commanders, officials, and 
fighters do not accept the decisions he has made on his 
own."  Joining in the wave of criticism of Karuna was 
former Batticaloa/Ampara Tiger political head Karikalan, 
who was quoted by TamilNet as stating:  "Karuna will be 
seen as a Pol Pot if he continues to act irresponsibly 
towards our people."  Thamilchelvam was also quoted as 
stating, "our leader is always ready to provide amnesty 
to those who realize their mistakes and I have high 
hopes that Karuna will be given amnesty."  He also 
indicated that the LTTE continues to support the peace 
process, stating:  "our leadership and our structures 
remain firmly committed to peaceful negotiations and the 
ceasefire agreement, and this isolated issue will not 
affect the peace initiative." 
====================== 
Karuna remains Defiant 
====================== 
 
4.  (SBU) For his part, Karuna remains defiant in the 
face of his expulsion from the LTTE.  Karuna, in an 
interview with a local newspaper, was quoted as stating: 
"We will not take orders from Prabhakaran."  He also 
asserted that the LTTE had sent out "killer squads" in 
an effort to assassinate him.  Karuna told the BBC that 
he was willing to return to the main LTTE organization 
if guarantees were given that eastern LTTE personnel 
would receive the same treatment as northern elements 
from now on.  (Karuna has said his rebellion is based, 
in part, on his view that northern LTTE members do not 
respect members from the east.)  Karuna also demanded 
the removal of several high-level officials serving LTTE 
leader V. Prabhakaran, including Intelligence Chief 
Pottu Aman.  Numerous media reports also carried 
statements from Karuna's spokesman, Varanthan, to the 
effect that the breakaway faction of the LTTE controlled 
by Karuna would function as an independent unit and 
would continue to observe the ceasefire "even though we 
are not a party to it."  Varathan also said the LTTE's 
official statement of expulsion "lacked logic," as 
Karuna had already made a decision to leave the group. 
In a press report late on March 8, Varathan said the 
dissident faction of the Tigers controlled by Karuna 
would consider "a friendly partnership" with 
Prabhakaran, but he did not provide further details. 
 
5.  (C) Estimates vary wildly, but there may be as many 
as six thousand LTTE personnel in the eastern district 
who remain loyal to Karuna.  (There are unconfirmed 
reports that the main LTTE organization may be 
preventing up to 600 eastern cadre who have been based 
in the north from returning to the east.)  Karuna 
himself is said to be ensconced deep in bases in the 
Thoppigalla jungle located west of Batticaloa city. 
These long-time LTTE bases are said to be well- 
fortified.  That said, it is not clear what financial 
resources Karuna's group has, and whether it has 
significant supplies of food and ammunition for the long 
haul. 
 
=========================== 
Heightened Tensions in East 
=========================== 
 
6.  (SBU) While the majority of Mission's contacts in 
the east describe the situation there as calm for the 
most part, an underlying mood of tension has been 
developing since Karuna's defection from the main 
organization on March 3.  Contacts at the Sri Lanka 
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) confirm that at least two pro- 
Karuna protests took place in Batticaloa district on 
March 7.  Effigies of Tiger leader V. Prabakharan and 
newly appointed eastern commander Ramesh were burnt in 
both demonstrations.  Pro-Karuna elements also sponsored 
a hartal (work stoppage) on March 8 in Tamil areas of 
Batticaloa and Ampara Districts that was successful in 
closing down some shops.  In a related development, 
examinations have been postponed at Eastern University, 
located 20 kilometers south of Batticaloa city, and 
student housing at the Tamil-dominated university has 
been closed down and students told to leave. 
 
7.  (C) Although tensions are inching up, no violence 
has been reported.  Contacts indicate a significant 
increase in the number of LTTE forces gathering in an 
area dividing Trincomalee District from Batticaloa 
District, however.  Kurt Spur of the SLMM's Trincomalee 
office told poloff March 8 that there had been a "large 
increase" in the number of LTTE cadre gathered near the 
town of Verugal in this area.  The forces in the Verugal 
area appear to be loyal to the main LTTE organization. 
It is not clear whether these forces plan to enter 
Batticaloa District in an attempt to oust Karuna. 
(There are reports that the main LTTE organization has 
arrested Pathuman, the political chief for Trincomalee. 
The reports are unconfirmed, but Pathuman may have been 
arrested because he is considered pro-Karuna.) 
 
============================ 
GSL Takes "Hands-off" Policy 
============================ 
 
8.  (C) The Sri Lankan government appears to be sticking 
to a "hands off" policy regarding the LTTE crisis.  Late 
March 5, Defense Secretary Cyril Herath rejected the 
idea of negotiating a separate ceasefire pact with 
Karuna's breakaway faction, stating in a press interview 
"when there is one ceasefire agreement signed between 
the Prime Minister and Prabhakaran, how can we have 
another?"  (Per Ref D, Karuna had approached the Sri 
Lankan military last week and offered to negotiate a 
separate ceasefire accord for the east.)  Karuna was 
reportedly not happy with this response from the GSL, 
and was quoted as stating that if the government did not 
deal with his faction "I will be forced to display my 
strength."  Despite reports to the contrary in the local 
press, the Sri Lankan military has said it is not on 
"high alert."  Military spokesman Colonel Sumeda Perera 
told poloff March 8 that the military was closely 
monitoring the situation in the east, however. 
 
9.  (SBU) As of March 8, both President Kumaratunga's 
People's Alliance (PA) party and Prime Minister 
Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP) continue to 
remain virtually mum regarding the LTTE rift.  In one of 
the few instances of comment on the Tiger situation by a 
political entity in the south, the Patriotic National 
Movement (PNM), an extremist Sinhalese group linked to 
the radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, 
issued a statement on March 7.  The statement alleged 
that the split in the LTTE presented an opportunity for 
the south to undermine the LTTE and perhaps destroy the 
group.  The PNM asserted that the SLMM should not get in 
the middle of the situation and criticized the PM for 
not using the situation in a way that would break up the 
LTTE organization. 
 
========================================= 
Parliamentary Election Campaign continues 
========================================= 
 
10.  (SBU) Against the backdrop of the recent 
developments in the Tiger organization, the campaign for 
Sri Lanka's upcoming April 2 parliamentary elections 
continues apace.  President Kumaratunga and PM 
Wickremesinghe have been speaking in front of large 
rallies in various parts of the country.  Candidates 
have also been engaged in canvassing in a normal 
fashion.  Based on what Mission is hearing, campaigning 
continues in LTTE-influenced areas like Jaffna and 
Trincomalee.  Some canvassing is reportedly even taking 
place in Batticaloa and Ampara Districts, though at a 
lower level than before the LTTE crisis.  In other 
election-related developments, a team of election 
monitors from the European Union arrived in Sri Lanka on 
March 7.  The leader of the EU's monitors, John 
Cushnahan, a senior European parliamentarian, is slated 
to arrive on March 10.  The EU team will consist of 
roughly sixty monitors when it is fully on the ground 
(twenty are expected to arrive this coming weekend). 
 
======= 
COMMENT 
======= 
 
11.  (C) The exact dimensions of Karuna's split from the 
main LTTE organization are as yet unclear.  As touched 
on above, there are conflicting reports, for example, 
over whether the bulk of LTTE forces in the east remain 
loyal to Karuna, or to the main LTTE organization. 
Moreover, although it took the step to fire Karuna in a 
very public manner, it remains unclear whether the LTTE 
plans to move quickly to try to oust him (or worse), or 
to proceed more cautiously, perhaps because it does not 
yet have enough forces in place in the east to take 
action against him.  In any case, Karuna's split from 
the main LTTE organization appears to be the most 
serious internal crisis ever faced by the group. 
 
12.  (C) If the situation is not resolved quickly, there 
will be implications for the peace process.  In the 
near-term, there does not appear to be any serious 
threat to the informal peace process, though out-and-out 
warfare between rival LTTE factions could lead to 
serious complications in affected areas.  In the longer 
term, however, the Norwegian facilitators will have 
their hands full monitoring the ceasefire accord and 
trying to resume peace talks if there are two de facto 
LTTE groups, one in the north and the other in the east. 
END COMMENT. 
 
13.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
ENTWISTLE