US embassy cable - 04CARACAS749

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000749 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON 
USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: OAS AND CARTER CENTER PUT PRESSURE ON GOV 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: DCM STEPHEN G. MCFARLAND FOR REASON 1.4(D) 
 
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SUMMARY: 
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1. (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE MATTHEW HODES TOLD THE 
AMBASSADOR MARCH 4 THAT FORMER PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER AND OAS 
SYG CESAR GAVIRIA WOULD PULL THEIR MISSIONS OUT OF VENEZUELA 
IF THE GOV INSISTS ON UNWORKABLE RULES FOR THE PROPOSED 
APPEALS PROCESS (REPARO).  CNE DIRECTOR JORGE RODRIGUEZ WANTS 
TO FIND AN AGREEMENT, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT INSTRUCTIONS HE 
RECEIVED FROM CHAVEZ.  MIRANDA STATE GOVERNOR MENDOZA AND 
FELIPPE MUJICA (PREMERO JUSTICIA) ARE NEGOTIATING ON BEHALF 
OF THE OPPOSITION, BUT THEY ALSO MUST NEGOTIATE WITH THE 
OPPOSITION TO SELL WHATEVER DEAL THEY STRIKE.  THE PARTIES 
ARE SCHEDULED TO MEET AGAIN MARCH 5.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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CARTER AND GAVIRIA READY TO WALK 
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2. (C) DURING DINNER WITH THE AMBASSADOR MARCH 4, CARTER 
CENTER REPRESENTATIVE MATTHEW HODES SAID THAT BOTH FORMER 
PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER AND OAS SYG CESAR GAVIRIA WOULD PULL 
THEIR MISSIONS OUT OF VENEZUELA IF THE GOV INSISTS ON 
    UNWORKABLE RULES FOR THE PROPOSED PRESIDENTIAL REFERENDUM 
SIGNATURES APPEALS PROCESS (REPARO).   HODES UNDERSTANDS THE 
INHERENT CONFLICT BETWEEN THE ROLE OF THE OAS/CARTER CENTER 
AS FACILITATORS OF NEGOTIATIONS AND THEIR ROLE AS OBSERVERS. 
AS FACILITATORS, HODES SAID ONE NEVER WANTS TO WALK AWAY FROM 
A NEGOTIATION SO LONG AS THE PARTIES ARE WILLING TO CONTINUE. 
 AS OBSERVERS, THEY WILL HAVE TO ISSUE A REPORT ON THEIR 
FINDINGS.  HE SAID CARTER AND GAVIRIA BOTH BELIEVE THAT THE 
OBSERVER ROLE TRUMPS THE NATURAL INCLINATION TO KEEP DIALOGUE 
GOING. 
 
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NEGOTIATIONS: CNE AND OPPOSITION IN TOUGH POSITIONS 
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3. (C) HODES TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT NATIONAL ELECTORAL 
COUNCIL (CNE) DIRECTOR JORGE RODRIGUEZ SEEMS PERSONALLY 
INTERESTED IN FINDING RULES FOR THE APPEALS PROCESS THAT WILL 
BE MUTUALLY AGREEABLE.  HOWEVER, HODES SAID, RODRIGUEZ IS 
OBVIOUSLY TAKING INSTRUCTIONS FROM MINISTER OF INFRASTRUCTURE 
DIOSDADO CABELLO AND PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ AND IT IS UNCLEAR 
WHAT INSTRUCTIONS RODRIGUEZ HAS.  HODES NOTED THAT WHILE 
MIRANDA STATE GOVERNOR ENRIQUE MENDOZA AND FELIPE MUJICA 
(MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM) SAY THEY ARE NEGOTIATING ON BEHALF OF 
THE OPPOSITION, IN REALITY THEY HAVE TO FIRST NEGOTIATE WITH 
RODRIGUEZ, THEN NEGOTIATE WITH THE OPPOSITION TO SELL 
WHATEVER DEAL THEY STRIKE. 
 
4. (C) THE PARTIES ARE SCHEDULED TO MEET AGAIN MARCH 5 TO 
DISCUSS DETAILS FOR THE PROCESS AND WILL ALSO EXCHANGE DATA. 
THE CNE WAS TO GIVE THE OPPOSITION THE OFFICIAL CNE RESULTS 
    AND DATA ON MARCH 4.  THE OPPOSITION BELIEVES IT WILL TAKE AT 
LEAST TWO FULL DAYS TO ANALYZE THAT INFORMATION AND COMPARE 
IT TO DATA MAINTAINED BY SUMATE. 
 
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CARTER TELLS GOV TO RESPECT THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE 
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5. (C) HODES SAID THAT DURING A MEETING WITH FORMER PRESIDENT 
JIMMY CARTER IN ATLANTA FEBRUARY 25, CARTER TOLD CABELLO THAT 
IT WAS ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE THAT FIFTY PERCENT OF THE 
SIGNATURES WERE ELIMINATED ON A TECHNICALITY, AND AN EX POST 
FACTO TECHNICALITY AT THAT, AND THAT THE WILL OF THE 
CITIZENRY SHOULD PREVAIL.  CARTER SUGGESTED THAT IF CHAVEZ 
WOULD WIN A RECALL, THEN THE GOV SHOULD ALLOW ONE TO TAKE 
PLACE.  CABELLO WOULD NOT BUDGE FROM HIS POSITION. 
 
 
SHAPIRO 
 
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      2004CARACA00749 - CONFIDENTIAL