US embassy cable - 04CARACAS740

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 000740 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: WHERE THE OPPOSITION STANDS ON CNE TALKS 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 730 (NOTAL) 
     B. CARACAS 728 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: ABELARDO A. ARIAS, POLITICAL COUNSELOR, 
FOR REASONS 1.4 (D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) OPPOSITION LEADERS BEGAN DISCUSSIONS WITH NATIONAL 
ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) JORGE RODRIGUEZ ON MARCH 3 TO WORK 
OUT A FORMULA FOR THE REFERENDUM SIGNATURES APPEALS PROCESS. 
IN ADDITION TO NEGOTIATING WITH THE CNE, THE OPPOSITION 
LEADERS FACE FUNDAMENTAL INTERNAL DIVISIONS AS TO WHETHER TO 
PURSUE THE APPEALS PROCESS AT ALL.  WE HAVE EMPHASIZED TO 
THEM THE IMPORTANCE OF PURSUING THE REFERENDUM PROCESS TO THE 
END, INCLUDING NEGOTIATING A VIABLE APPEALS PROCESS. 
GENERALLY, TRADITIONAL PARTIES FAVOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE 
CNE WHILE NEWER PARTIES AND NGOS BELIEVE THAT NEGOTIATIONS 
VALIDATE THE UNFAIR, ILLEGAL CNE DECISION KNOCKING OUT MORE 
THAN HALF OF THE SIGNATURES OF THE OPPOSITION SUBMITTED IN 
DECEMBER 2003 IN SUPPORT OF A RECALL OF PRESIDENT HUGO 
CHAVEZ.  THIS MESSAGE PROVIDES OUR ASSESSMENT, BASED ON 
DIRECT CONVERSATIONS AND OTHER IMPRESSIONS, OF WHERE 
OPPOSITION LEADERS STAND REGARDING THE APPEALS PROCESS.  END 
    SUMMARY. 
 
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ENRIQUE MENDOZA:  NEGOTIATING THE "REPARO" PROCESS 
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2. (C) AIDES TO DEMOCRATIC COORDINATING COMMITTEE (DCC) CHIEF 
ENRIQUE MENDOZA SAY HE IS FULLY DEDICATED TO NEGOTIATING WITH 
THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) TO DESIGN A WORKABLE 
APPEALS PROCESS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL REFERENDUM SIGNATURES. 
MENDOZA, THE DCC CHIEF NEGOTIATOR IN THE TALKS WITH THE CNE, 
IS PUSHING AGREEMENT WITHIN THE DCC TO GO TO THE APPEALS 
PROCESS, HIS AIDES SAY, THOUGH MUCH DEPENDS ON HIS ABILITY TO 
GARNER CONCESSIONS FROM THE CNE (REF). 
 
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MAS ON BOARD:  MUJICA NEGOTIATING 
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3. (C) MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM (MAS) PRESIDENT FELIPE MUJICA 
TOLD POLOFF MARCH 4 THAT HE IS NEGOTIATING ALONG WITH MENDOZA 
AT THE CNE.  HE IS OPTIMISTIC THAT A WORKABLE SOLUTION WILL 
BE REACHED.  HE ASKED US FOR HELP IN CONVINCING OPPOSITION 
HOLDOUTS THAT THE APPEALS PROCESS IS THE ONLY VIABLE 
ALTERNATIVE. 
 
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CTV:  NEGOTIATIONS WITH OAS GUARANTEES, STREET ACTION 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
4. (C) CONFEDERATION OF WORKERS (CTV) OF VENEZUELA SECRETARY 
    GENERAL MANUEL COVA SAID HIS ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS THE 
NEGOTIATIONS, THOUGH HE DOUBTS THE APPEALS PROCESS WILL BE 
HANDLED FAIRLY.  HE SAID THEY HOPE THE OAS WILL ACT AS 
GUARANTORS OF THE APPEALS PROCESS.  COVA COMMENTED THAT THIS 
WOULD BE THE LAST TIME THE OPPOSITION CAN BE EXPECTED TO GO 
BACK TO THE REFERENDUM PROCESS.  HE SAID THE CTV IS CALLING 
FOR PEACEFUL PROTESTS AND UNION MEETINGS TO DISCUSS THE 
POLITICAL SITUATION. 
 
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AD: TEETERING TOWARD NEGOTIATIONS 
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5. (C) ACCION DEMOCRATICA (AD) REPORTEDLY HAS BEEN LESS 
WILLING TO NEGOTIATE, PREFERRING TO LET THE DCC NEGOTIATE. 
DCC REPRESENTATIVES HAVE TOLD US THAT AD SECRETARY GENERAL 
HENRY RAMOS TOLD THEM THAT AD WOULD SUPPORT A "FEASIBLE" 
APPEALS PROCESS.  THE KILLING AN AD PARTY MEMBER DURING A 
PROTEST IN ZULIA ON MARCH 4 MAY EFFECT AD'S POSITION. 
 
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PRIMERO JUSTICIA: GOV HAS CROSSED THE LINE 
 
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6. (C) PRIMERO JUSTICIA (JUSTICE FIRST, PJ) SECRETARY GENERAL 
JOSE LUIS MEJIAS TOLD POLOFF MARCH 4 THAT HIS PARTY BELIEVES 
THE CNE DECISION ESSENTIALLY STOLE THE REFERENDUM AND THAT 
THE OAS MUST ACT UNDER THE INTER-AMERICAN CHARTER.  MEJIAS 
OPINED THAT THE TRADITIONAL PARTIES THAT ARE NEGOTIATING WITH 
THE CNE ARE SEEKING TO PRESERVE REMNANTS OF THE "FOURTH 
    REPUBLIC," THAT IS, THE PRE-CHAVEZ POWER SHARING STRUCTURE. 
HE SAID THE APPEALS PROCESS IS NOT WINNABLE AND NOT WORTH 
PURSUING.  HE CONCEDED THAT PJ MIGHT SUPPORT AN APPEALS 
PROCESS IF IT SEEMED POSSIBLE TO SUCCEED. 
 
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PROYECTO VENEZUELA:  SITTING IT OUT 
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8. (C) PROYECTO VENEZUELA (VENEZUELA PROJECT) FOUNDER 
HENRIQUE SALAS ROMER ANNOUNCED MARCH 3 HE WOULD NOT SUPPORT 
NEGOTIATING WITH THE GOV "ON PRINCIPLE."  SALAS TOLD 
AMBASSADOR MARCH 2 HE BELIEVED THE DCC'S DECISION TO 
NEGOTIATE WOULD SPELL ITS POLITICAL DEATH.  (COMMENT:  SALAS 
IS LIKELY GAMING THE SITUATION TO BE THE EMERGING OPPOSITION 
LEADER ONCE THE APPEALS PROCESS FAILS.  END COMMENT.) 
 
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ALIANZA BRAVO PUEBLO: LIKELY SUPPORT 
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9.  (C) ALIANZA BRAVO PUEBLO (BRAVE PEOPLE'S ALLIANCE, ABP) 
PRESIDENT ANTONIO LEDEZMA TOLD POLOFF MARCH 2 HE WOULD 
SUPPORT THE APPEALS PROCESS.  HIS SUBSEQUENT PRESS STATEMENTS 
HAVE SUGGESTED OTHERWISE.  NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY TIMOTEO 
ZAMBRANO, CO-FOUNDER WITH LEDEZMA OF ABP AND NOW AT ODDS WITH 
HIS COLLEAGUE, HAS SAID HE SUPPORTS THE NEGOTIATIONS AND 
GETTING TO THE APPEALS PROCESS.  (COMMENT:  DESPITE LEDEZMA'S 
PUBLIC STATEMENTS URGING CONTINUED PROTESTS TO "DEFEND THE 
SIGNATURES," WE EXPECT HE WILL GO ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS 
AND SUPPORT THE APPEALS PROCESS.  END COMMENT.) 

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FEDECAMARAS:  WILLING TO GO ALONG 
--------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) FEDECAMARAS PRESIDENT ALBIS MUNOZ TOLD ECONCOUNS 
MARCH 4 SHE HAS TAKEN A TOUGH LINE AGAINST THE CNE ON THE 
ILLEGALITY OF ITS DECISION.  HOWEVER, SHE BELIEVES THE 
OPPOSITION MUST FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE APPEALS PROCESS. 
THEY MUST TRUST NEGOTIATORS MENDOZA AND MUJICA TO MAKE THE 
BEST DEAL POSSIBLE FROM THE CNE, SHE SAID. 
 
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SUMATE:  DUBIOUS BUT ON BOARD 
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11.  (C) LEADERS OF THE NGO SUMATE TOLD US THEY DOUBT THE 
APPEALS PROCESS WILL WORK ON TECHNICAL GROUNDS.  IDENTIFYING 
THE POOL OF PERSONS WHOSE SIGNATURES WERE NOT ACCEPTED, AND 
GETTING THEM TO A CNE-RUN CENTER DURING THE APPEALS PERIOD, 
ARE SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS, THEY SAY. 
 
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GENTE DE PETROLEO: WRESTLING WITH PRINCIPLE 
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12.  (C) JUAN FERNANDEZ, LEADER OF GENTE DE PETROLEO 
("PETROLEUM PEOPLE," COMPOSED OF FIRED PDVSA WORKERS AND 
THEIR FAMILIES), TOLD POLCOUNS MARCH 4 HE BELIEVES IT IS 
IMPORTANT TO PURSUE THE REFERENDUM PROCESS TO THE END.  HE 
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE DCC MUST COME UP WITH A FORMULA THAT 
    TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE STRONG FEELING THAT MANY VENEZUELANS 
HAVE ABOUT BEING DEFRAUDED BY THE CNE DECISION.  HE 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THERE IS NO EASY SOLUTION TO THAT DILEMMA. 
AS OF MARCH 4, FERNANDEZ WAS UNCERTAIN THAT HE COULD FULLY 
SUPPORT THE NEGOTIATIONS ON THE APPEALS PROCESS, BUT HE WOULD 
NOT BLOCK THEM. 
 
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COMMENT 
 
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13. (C) WE HAVE STRESSED TO OPPOSITION REPRESENTATIVES THE 
IMPORTANCE OF PURSUING THE REFERENDUM PROCESS TO THE END, 
INCLUDING COMING TO THE TABLE WITH THE GOVERNMENT TO 
NEGOTIATE ON THE SIGNATURE APPEALS PROCESS (REPAROS).  WE 
HAVE NOTED THAT WE ARE NOT MERELY ADVISING THAT THE 
OPPOSITION STICK WITH THE PROCESS AND NEGOTIATE ON THE 
APPEALS PROCESS BECAUSE IT IS JUST ONE MORE BOX TO CHECK OFF. 
 ANOTHER POINT WE HAVE MADE IS THAT THE GOV HAS THE UPPER 
HAND BECAUSE THE CNE HAS CREATED THE APPEARANCE OF HAVING 
MADE A PROPER DECISION, WITHIN ITS AUTHORITY, AND THE 
OPPOSITION IS NOT WITHOUT LEGAL RECOURSE.  WE HAVE ALSO 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT WHILE THE OPPOSITION FACES THE DILEMMA OF 
"NEGOTIATING AWAY" THE SIGNATURES, OR OF VIOLATING PRINCIPLES 
BY "VALIDATING" THE WRONGS COMMITTED BY THE CNE TO DATE, 
BEING MADE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABORTING THE REFERENDUM PROCESS 
WOULD HURT THE OPPOSITION AND HAND CHAVEZ A JUICIER VICTORY. 
 
 
14.  (C) THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE APPEALS PROCESS BY THE 
    OPPOSITION AT-LARGE WILL DEPEND ON THE TERMS OF THE DEAL 
BROKERED WITH THE CNE.  WE BELIEVE THAT IF A REASONABLE 
AGREEMENT IS REACHED, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OPPOSITION 
GROUPS WILL GO ALONG.  SALAS MAY EVEN PARTICIPATE IF HE IS 
ABLE TO DO SO WHILE RETAINING HIS PURIST IMAGE.  MAINTAINING 
OPPOSITION UNITY DEPENDS ON THE SUCCESS OF THE NEGOTIATIONS, 
MAKING THE ROLE OF THE OAS AND CARTER CENTER AS FACILITATORS 
BETWEEN THE OPPOSITION AND THE CNE CRITICAL. 
 
SHAPIRO 
 
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      2004CARACA00740 - CONFIDENTIAL