US embassy cable - 00HARARE7273

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 007273 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND 
AFR/SA C. PALMA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI, UK 
SUBJECT: A VISIT TO MR. MUGABE'S PLANET: THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
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PRESIDENT'S END OF YEAR SPEECH 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) IN HIS HOUR-LONG END OF YEAR MESSAGE DECEMBER 
27, PRESIDENT MUGABE GAVE HIS VERSION OF EVENTS IN THE 
YEAR 2000.  HE ATTRIBUTED THE COUNTRY'S DIFFICULT 
ECONOMIC PATCH TO FALLING COMMODITY AND RISING INPUT 
PRICES AS WELL AS RESERVE BANK MONETARY POLICY.  HE 
REHEARSED THE REASONS FOR THE FAST-TRACK LAND REFORM 
PROGRAM AND BLAMED THE GREED OF THE "ANGLO-SAXON" 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS FOR HAMPERING PROGRESS.  HE CONDEMNED 
THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE FOR 
ATTEMPTING TO COME TO POWER THROUGH VIOLENT MEANS AND 
PURSUING A SEDITIOUS POLITICAL AGENDA.  HE SAID THE YEAR 
HAD BEEN A DIFFICULT ONE AND THANKED PEOPLE FOR THEIR 
FORBEARANCE WITH THE SHORTAGES OF FUEL.  THE SPEECH, 
RIDDLED WITH FACTUAL INACCURACIES, LOGICAL 
INCONSISTENCIES AND NOT-SO-VEILED THREATS, SUCCEEDED IN 
EMBARRASSING ALL BUT THE MOST ARDENT ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS 
PRESENT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE DELIVERED HIS END-OF-YEAR 
MESSAGE TO AN ESTIMATED 500 GUESTS AT A STATE HOUSE 
RECEPTION DECEMBER 27.  THE PRESIDENT, WHO SPOKE FOR AN 
HOUR, OFTEN DEPARTED FROM HIS PREPARED TEXT.  THE SPEECH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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WAS AN EMBARRASSMENT; IT WAS BREATHTAKING IN ITS 
INTELLECTUAL DISHONESTY, LOGICAL INCONSISTENCY AND NOT- 
SO-VEILED THREATS.  AUDIENCE REACTION WAS MUTED WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF THE OCCASIONAL "HEAR, HEAR," SHOUTED BY 
SOME OF THE MORE ZEALOUS OF THE PARTY FAITHFUL. 
MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE NKOSANA 
MOYO CONFIDED TO THE AUSTRALIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER HERE 
THAT HE FELT "SHATTERED" FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S SPEECH. 
 
3.  (SBU) MUGABE LED OFF BY MAKING A POINT OF GREETING 
THOSE IN ATTENDANCE FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND THE 
PARASTATALS.  HE SEEMED TO BE ALIGNING GOVERNMENT WITH 
THESE TWO GROUPS AND MADE MENTION OF THE FACT THAT THEY 
HAD STOOD TOGETHER IN SOLIDARITY TO COMBAT THE FORCES 
FROM OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY.  HE THEN CALLED THE 
INDEPENDENT "DAILY NEWS" NEWSPAPER THE "DAILY LIARS," 
AND SAID THAT THEY AND THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) DID NOT KNOW THE DIFFERENCE 
BETWEEN A BANQUET AND A RECEPTION.  (COMMENT: THIS WAS A 
JAB AT THE MDC FOR BOYCOTTING THE EVENT.  THE "DAILY 
NEWS" REPORTED ON THE DECEMBER 27 THAT THE OPPOSITION 
PARTY SAID IT COULD NOT ATTEND SUCH A LAVISH EVENT WITH 
THE SUFFERING GOING ON OVER THIS LAST YEAR.  END 
COMMENT). 
 
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THE ECONOMY IS NOT OUR FAULT 
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4.  (SBU) THE PRESIDENT ADMITTED THAT IT HAD BEEN A 
DIFFICULT YEAR FOR EVERYONE.  HE SAID THE MAIN CAUSE WAS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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THE DOWNWARD PRICE OF ZIMBABWE'S MINERALS, ESPECIALLY 
GOLD, WHICH HE LABELED (INCORRECTLY) AS THE MAIN SOURCE 
OF ZIMBABWE'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOLLOWED BY TOBACCO. 
THIS SET THE TREND FOR GREAT HARDSHIPS.  ON THE OTHER 
HAND, HE STATED, "THERE ARE AREAS WHERE THE GOVERNMENT 
IS BLAMED FOR FOLLOWING THE WRONG POLICIES.  ECONOMICS 
IS NOT A SCIENCE OF CERTAINTY.  IT IS A SCIENCE OF 
ASSUMPTIONS.  PRICES INCREASE BECAUSE OF DEMAND OR OTHER 
FORCES.  IN THE CASE OF ZIMBABWE, THEY INCREASE BECAUSE 
OF 'COST-PUSH INFLATION.'"  (COMMENT: SOUTH AFRICA, THE 
SOURCE FOR 60 PERCENT OF IMPORTS, HAD AN INFLATION RATE 
OF UNDER FIVE PERCENT THIS YEAR.  END COMMENT).  HE 
CONTINUED, "WE GET MATERIALS FROM ABROAD AND WE HAVE TO 
PAY THE SUPPLIERS' PRICES.  WE HAVE NO CONTROL OVER 
THESE PRICES