US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB380

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000380 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR S/WCI AND EUR/SCE 
THE HAGUE FOR KAYE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KAWC, War Crimes 
SUBJECT: CROATIAN PRESS REPORTS NEW ICTY INDICTMENTS 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: DCM PATRICK S. MOON FOR REASON 1.5 (B, D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) THE CROATIAN PRESS IS WIDELY REPORTING THAT THE 
    GOVERNMENT OF CROATIA HAS RECEIVED NEW SEALED ICTY 
INDICTMENTS FROM THE HAGUE TRIBUNAL.  THE GOVERNMENT IS 
REFUSING TO COMMENT, BUT THE PRESS CITES THAT SANADER AND 
OTHER HDZ LEADERS ARE WORKING HARD TO MANAGE POLITICAL 
FALLOUT BEFORE THE INDICTMENTS ARE MADE PUBLIC.  THE GOC 
RECOGNIZES THAT ITS COOPERATION WITH THE TRIBUNAL WILL BE 
UNDER THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S MICROSCOPE; SANADER'S 
GOVERNMENT KNOWS THAT DECISIONS ABOUT CROATIA'S SUITABILITY 
AS AN EU CANDIDATE WILL DEPEND ON HIS ACTIONS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU) ON MARCH 5, ALL OF THE CROATIAN PRESS REPORTED THAT 
NEW INDICTMENTS AGAINST MLADEN MARKAC AND IVAN CERMAK HAD 
BEEN HANDED DOWN BY THE ICTY PROSECUTOR AND THAT THEY HAD 
BEEN DELIVERED UNDER SEAL TO THE GOC OFFICE FOR COOPERATION 
WITH ICTY ON FEBRUARY 26.  THE FACT OF THE INDICTMENTS HAS 
BECOME AN OPEN SECRET IN ZAGREB, BUT GOC LEADERS REFUSE TO 
COMMENT OR SPECULATE ON THE RECORD.  INDICTMENTS AGAINST 
MARKAC AND CERMAK FOR THEIR ACTIVITIES DURING AND AFTER 
"OPERATION STORM" IN NOVEMBER 1995 HAVE BEEN EXPECTED IN 
ZAGREB SINCE JANUARY. 
 
3.  (SBU) PM SANADER REPORTEDLY BRIEFED PRESIDENT MESIC ABOUT 
THE INDICTMENTS ON MARCH 1.  MESIC IN TURN BRIEFED FORMER PM 
RACAN (NOW LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION) ON MARCH 2.  ACCORDING 
TO PRESS REPORTS, SANADER HAS ALSO DISCUSSED THE INDICTMENTS 
WITH ANTO DJAPIC, LEADER OF THE EXTREME NATIONALIST CROATIAN 
PARTY OF RIGHT (HSP) IN ORDER TO TEMPER THE HSP REACTION AND 
THEREBY COVER THE GOVERNMENT'S NATIONALIST POLITICAL FLANK. 
THE PRESS REPORTS THAT SANADER WANTS THE TWO INDICTEES TO 
ANNOUNCE THE INDICTMENTS THEMSELVES, AT THE SAME TIME AS THEY 
PUBLICLY AGREE TO TRAVEL TO THE HAGUE TO ANSWER THE CHARGES. 
    THE GOVERNMENT WILL REPORTEDLY OFFER THE COURT THE SAME 
"GUARANTEES" FOR MARKAC AND CERMAK WHICH IT GAVE ON BEHALF OF 
ICTY INDICTEE RAHIM ADEMI, WHO WAS RELEASED BY ICTY TO AWAIT 
TRIAL AT HOME IN CROATIA. 
 
4.  (SBU) CERMAK IS ALREADY ON THE PUBLIC RECORD AS DECLARING 
HIS READINESS TO GO THE HAGUE IF INDICTED.  IN A RECENT PRESS 
INTERVIEW CERMAK NOTED THAT HE HAD ALREADY BEEN "INTERVIEWED" 
BY ICTY INVESTIGATORS.  HE TOLD THE PRESS THAT HE "WOULD 
CONTINUE TO COOPERATE WITH THE HAGUE" SO AS "NOT TO CAUSE 
PROBLEMS FOR HIS HOMELAND," A CLEAR REFERENCE TO THE DAMAGE 
TO CROATIA'S EU BID CAUSED BY ICTY PIFWC ANTE GOTOVINA'S 
FUGITIVE STATUS. 
 
INDICTMENTS AGAINST BOSNIAN CROATS 
---------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) CROATIA'S PRESS REPORTS THAT ICTY INDICTMENTS HAVE 
BEEN HANDED DOWN ON THREE BOSNIAN CROATS, MILIVOJ PETKOVIC, 
JADRANKO PRLIC AND SLOBODAN PRALJAK, ALL FOR ACTIVITIES 
DURING THE WAR IN BIH.  PETKOVIC AND PRALJAK WERE HVO 
COMMANDERS AND PRLIC WAS PRESIDENT OF THE SHORT-LIVED 
PSEUDO-STATE OF HERCEG-BOSNA.  PRALJAK AND PETKOVIC BOTH 
RESIDE IN ZAGREB.  PETKOVIC IS CURRENTLY THE INSPECTOR 
GENERAL OF THE CROATIAN ARMY AND PRALJAK (WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE 
FOR THE DESTRUCTION OF THE ANCIENT MOSTAR BRIDGE) IS A 
BUSINESSMAN PROMINENT IN ZAGREB HIGH SOCIETY.  WHILE THESE 
THREE INDICTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS POLITICALLY SENSITIVE 
-- THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAR IN BOSNIA AND NOT WITH 
THE RECAPTURE OF CROATIAN TERRITORY IN "OPERATION STORM" -- 
THEY WILL ALSO PRESENT POLITICAL CHALLENGES TO THE SANADER 
    GOVERNMENT. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7.  (C) WHILE THESE INDICTMENTS PRESENT A POLITICAL CHALLENGE 
TO THE SANADER GOVERNMENT, THEY ALSO PRESENT AN IMPORTANT 
OPPORTUNITY.  SANADER HAS BEEN SEEKING TO CONVINCE THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- AND PARTICULARLY EU DECISIONMAKERS 
-- THAT HIS GOVERNMENT IS DOING ALL IT CAN TO COOPERATE FULLY 
WITH THE ICTY, DESPITE CROATIA'S FAILURE TO APPREHEND AND 
TRANSFER GOTOVINA.  IF SANADER CAN "DELIVER" ON THE NEW SET 
OF INDICTMENTS, HIS ARGUMENT ON GOTOVINA WILL BE 
STRENGTHENED.  QUICK AND DECISIVE ACTION COULD ALSO OVERCOME 
SPECIFIC BRITISH AND DUTCH RESERVATIONS THAT ARE BLOCKING 
CROATIA'S EU CANDIDACY. 
FRANK 
 
NNNN