US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA222

UNCLAS  BRATISLAVA 000222 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, LO 
SUBJECT: Next President: Kukan, Schuster, or Meciar? 
 
 
1. Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
2. (U) Summary.  As the April 3 first round of presidential 
elections draw near, three candidates have emerged as the 
strongest: Foreign Minister and SDKU candidate Eduard Kukan; 
President Rudolf Schuster; and HZDS Chairman and former 
Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar.  While politicians and polls 
indicate Kukan is the favorite in the first round with 26-27 
percent, Meciar has been gaining ground and Schuster is not 
so far behind.  Most Slovaks agree Meciar could make it to 
the second round, with the most likely scenario a replay of 
the 2002 Parliamentary elections where HZDS appeared strong 
but SDKU and its allies strengthened in the end when voters 
recalled the reality of Slovakia's isolation under Meciar in 
the 1990s.  The difference from 2002 is the lack of an NGO 
"Get Out the Vote" effort which, when combined with possible 
voter apathy and backlash against Kukan's SDKU party for 
recent economic and social reforms, could create an upset. 
End summary. 
 
Kukan Still Leads Polls 
----------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) With the elections a month away, polls show a more 
or less consistent level of support for each candidate, but 
a month is a long time in Slovak politics and in the mind of 
the Slovak voter.  Candidates have unofficially campaigned 
to various degrees but the two official campaign weeks 
immediately before the election will determine which two 
candidates pass to the April 17 second round.  There are 
three realistic possibilities for the second round: (in 
order of likelihood) Kukan vs. Meciar, Kukan vs. Schuster, 
or Schuster vs. Meciar.  In a February 11-17 Focus agency 
poll, of those who intended to vote, 27.5 percent favored 
Kukan, 23.1 percent supported Meciar, and 17.5 percent would 
vote for Schuster.  In an MVK poll published March 2, when 
asked whom they would support in a Kukan-Meciar runoff, 62.9 
percent chose Kukan and 37.1 percent selected Meciar. 
Virtually all contacts and voters to whom poloffs have 
spoken refer to each potential runoff as a "lesser of two 
evils" choice in which Kukan or Schuster would win against 
Meciar, with Kukan also likely to win over Schuster.  SDKU 
contacts have cited current poll results as reason enough 
Kukan will win, but the true campaigning has yet to begin. 
 
Meciar's Populism Has Enduring Appeal 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Meciar and HZDS still enjoy substantial popular 
support.  The party and the man remain indivisible 
politically and operationally.  Opposition MPs indicate many 
Slovaks are tired of crushing economic and social reforms 
and criticism from the EU and U.S., and they consider Meciar 
to be the only one who "stands up" for Slovakia.  But many 
agree that Meciar, despite changing his rhetoric to support 
EU integration and reform, still does not have enough 
sympathy among the public to win and is not considered a 
vote for change, as much as voters may dislike their 
economic situation. 
 
Schuster's Support Unclear 
-------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Schuster may end up with Smer's endorsement, as its 
chairman Robert Fico has said positive things about Schuster 
in the media and would be unlikely to support archrival 
Meciar or coalition candidate Kukan.  However, Schuster 
seems to have lost the labor unions to Meciar. 
 
6. (SBU) Opposition politicians have told poloffs Kukan's 
poll numbers seem high considering his closeness to PM 
Dzurinda and public discontent over economic reforms that 
took place en masse at the beginning of this year.  However, 
there are many layers between personalities and policy, and 
many observers doubt party affiliation or support has the 
same strong effect as in parliamentary elections.  Thus, 
voters are unlikely to make this connection between the 
actions of the SDKU-led coalition and Kukan himself.  For 
example, in the 1992 Parliamentary elections, voters 
supported a united Czechoslovakia yet voted for Meciar, 
whose goal was a separate Slovak state. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (SBU) Meciar, if he gets to the second round, will appeal 
to labor unions, nationalists, and his traditional 
supporters.  (Even Kukan's own campaign manager admitted 
privately that his family in eastern Slovakia would vote for 
no one but Meciar.)  Meciar may also benefit from the 
widespread discontent of Roma and other socially and 
economically disadvantaged citizens, who are angry at the 
 
government and so will vote against Kukan, the "government 
candidate".  A vote "against" could combine with apathy 
resulting in a low turnout which could create an upset. 
 
8. (SBU) Political analysts close to the Embassy believe 
those who strongly oppose Meciar and would come out 
specifically to vote against him outnumber his strong 
supporters, making the prospect of a Meciar victory possible 
but unlikely at this point.  One respected pollster opined 
in the media that Meciar could win only if turnout is very 
low. 
 
9.  (SBU) The possibility of a Meciar victory raises the 
question of a U.S. response.  We took an active, albeit 
nuanced, approach to his candidacy in 2002, including a 
major nonpartisan GOTV effort.  No one was in doubt as to 
our position, which was a topic of great interest in 
Slovakia.  So far, our position in 2004 has not been a 
subject of inquiry, public or private.  It would be 
premature at this juncture for us to engage.  Doing so in 
the current political climate might possibly enhance his 
attractiveness to some voters.  If he gets to the second 
round, we will then want to consider his electoral prospects 
and decide how to react.  End Comment. 
 
THAYER 
 
 
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