US embassy cable - 04CARACAS728

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 000728 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: THE OPPOSITION'S NEGOTIATING DILEMMA 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 716 
 
     B. CARACAS 717 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for 
Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The Democratic Coordinating Committee (DCC) is 
negotiating with National Electoral Council (CNE) Director 
Jorge Rodriguez to design a workable appeals process 
("reparo") for regaining the signatures petitioning a 
presidential recall referendum not initially accepted by the 
CNE.  The DCC wants to have full international observer 
presence, expand the time period to at least three days, 
ensure the computer system is capable and fraud-proof, and 
restore signatures that were rejected for missing signature 
forms and tally sheets.  The DCC is also fighting to maintain 
internal agreement on whether even to negotiate with the CNE, 
with NGOs and Henrique Salas Romer the notable holdouts.  End 
summary. 
 
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DCC Negotiating With CNE 
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2. (C) Poloff met on March 3 with Democratic Coordinating 
Committee (DCC) representatives Enrique Naime, Amado Dounias, 
and Daniel Thiman, who are operational officials for the DCC. 
 Naime, who is the principal opposition witness for the 
signature verification process, confirmed that Miranda State 
Governor Enrique Mendoza and Movement to Socialism (MAS) 
party chief Felipe Mujica met twice with CNE Director Jorge 
Rodriguez on March 3 to negotiate a feasible process to 
re-affirm or challenge the signatures in support of a 
presidential recall (ref a).  Naime, MAS party official 
Nelson Rampersaad, and OAS and Carter Center representatives 
also attend the negotiations.  Naime said the DCC is 
dedicated to maintaining the "democratic route" to the 
referendum.  Rodriguez confirmed publicly on March 3 that the 
conversations had been "very positive" and will continue over 
the next few days. 
 
3. (C) Opposition advisor Ana Julia Jartar had a more 
negative assesment of the the negotiations, claiming that 
Rodriguez would not change &anything8 concerning previously 
announced rules and regulations governing the reparo.  The 
Ambassador told her to recognize this as a standard hard-line 
opening position in negotiations that should not defer the 
opposition from negotiating. 
 
4. (C) The CNE announced preliminary results of the signature 
count on March 2 in which the opposition fell some 600,000 
signatures short of the 2.4 million threshold required by the 
constitution.  Rodriguez publicly offered the opposition on 
March 2 an opportunity to discuss the design of the appeals 
process ("proceso de reparos" in Spanish).  Naime said that 
opposition spokespersons Julio Borges and Antonio Ledezma 
failed to give the DCC's consensus opinion that the 
opposition wanted a couple of days to study the CNE's 
preliminary decision before agreeing to negotiate. 
 
5. (C) Dounias said the DCC asked the CNE for a database of 
the preliminary results for study.  The DCC will request that 
signatures that were voided due to missing forms or lost 
tally sheets be reintegrated into the count of valid 
signatures.  Also, they will insist that all signatures go to 
the appeals process regardless of the reason for exclusion. 
Dounias said the DCC will ask for more technical 
specifications on how the computer system used to register 
appeals will work, which will determine how many days -- they 
would like at least three days for now though the rules 
dictate five -- or centers are needed to ensure the appeals 
process offers a chance at victory.  (Note: The Carter Center 
told the Ambassador on March 3 that the opposition and CNE 
Director Rodriguez would meet on March 5 to discuss the 
statistical results.  The opposition submitted 3.4 million 
signatures; the figure announced March 2 by CNE President 
 
Carrasquero totals 3.1 million.) 
 
6. (C) Opposition advisor Fernando Martinez Mottola told the 
Ambassador March 3 that 10,000 computers would be needed, not 
the 2,700 currently planned for. He also lamented possible 
logistical problems for the computers: power source, computer 
paper, Internet access, and the hardware itself.  The 
Ambassador added that Carter Center representatives told him 
March 2 that there was not enough time to secure and load the 
proper software. 
 
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Internal Conflicts Plague DCC 
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7. (C) Naime acknowledged that the DCC is split on whether to 
negotiate with the CNE after its unfair treatment of the 
forms with similar handwriting ("planillas planas" in 
Spanish).  Naime said that Gente de Petroleo leader Juan 
Fernandez had "gone crazy" with his refusal to negotiate with 
the CNE.  The three representatives agreed that the NGOs in 
the DCC are most opposed to negotiating with the GOV, 
convinced the GOV is readying a trap that will cause the 
opposition to fail.  Political parties largely favor 
negotiations.  AD Secretary General Henry Ramos, said Naime, 
has agreed to participate in the appeals process if the DCC 
negotiates a "feasible" process. 
 
8. (C) Thiman noted that the conflict of opinion within the 
DCC reflects that of Venezuelan society over the CNE 
decision.  The representatives denied they were coordinating 
street demonstrations throughout Venezuela, insisting the 
protests are spontaneous.  Thiman said Saturday's march to 
the CNE headquarters is an attempt to channel frustration 
among their supporters. 
 
9. (C) Martinez told the Ambassador that the internal reparo 
debate has significantly stressed opposition unity, both 
within the CD and the individual parties that make up the CD. 
 He said a divide exists in the CD between people who want to 
abandon the recall process our of principle and those that 
wish to continue negotiating to gain international favor and 
bolster their democratic credentials.  Both sides have no 
illusions about the recall process: Chavez will not allow it 
happen.  The disagreement is over how to proceed.  According 
to Martinez, the negotiators are led by Enrique Mendoza, 
COPEI, and MAS.  Primero Justicia is supporting negotiations 
reluctantly, AD is split, and Projecto Venezuela is opposed 
to negotiating further.  Sumate staff  look at the process 
through a technical, practical perspective, in which 
continuing with a failed process is illogical.  The reparo 
&puts us in a position where we are against our own people 
that see the reparo as technically impossible,8 Martinez 
said. 
 
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Enter Salas Romer 
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10. (C) Proyecto Venezuela head Henrique Salas Romer, they 
said, is acting "reborn" with his call for civil disobedience 
on March 3.  They described Salas as a "populist" (Mendoza as 
a "statesman") who hopes the DCC will fail so that people 
support a military solution.  Naime believes Salas is 
positioning himself to take over the opposition if the 
Mendoza and the DCC fail.  (Salas told the PolCoun and 
Ambassador on March 2 that if the Coordinadora accepts a bad 
mechanism for going to reparos it will destroy the 
Coordinadora.) 
 
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Comment 
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11. (C) The pragmatists in the DCC are trying to reach a 
workable solution to keep the referendum process alive.  We 
expect the CNE will meet some of the opposition's demands, 
but will try to make the process so onerous that they are 
unable to "repair" enough signatures to activate the recall. 
The rifts within the DCC will diminish if a feasible solution 
 
is reached.  Salas' distancing himself from the DCC is 
opportunistic but not surprising.  He perceives the DCC as a 
vehicle for Mendoza and therefore an obstacle to his 
ambitions.  Our message to Salas, to Mendoza, to Borges, and 
to other opposition leaders has been and continues to be that 
they must negotiate the best deal possible and then make it 
work. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA00728 - CONFIDENTIAL