US embassy cable - 00HARARE7266

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 007266 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/10 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07266  01 OF 02  281245Z 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: NEW ZIMBABWE POLITBURO STRENGTHENS MNANGAGWA'S 
BID TO SUCCEED MUGABE 
 
REFS: A) HARARE 7164, B) HARARE 7134 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: PRESIDENT MUGABE'S NEW ZANU-PF 
POLITBURO, APPOINTED DECEMBER 15 AT THE SPECIAL PARTY 
CONGRESS (REF B), STRENGTHENS SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT 
EMMERSON MNANGAGWA'S POSITION IN THE PARTY AND COULD 
SIGNAL MUGABE'S INTENTION TO MAKE MNANGAGWA HIS 
SUCCESSOR.  SINCE JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 
MNANGAGWA HAS BEEN BROUGHT BACK FROM THE BRINK OF 
POLITICAL EXTINCTION AFTER LOSING HIS LEGISLATIVE SEAT. 
THE NEW POLITBURO ALSO EFFECTIVELY MARGINALIZES THE 
NDEBELE AND MANICA ETHNIC GROUPS, TWO GROUPS 
INCREASINGLY VIEWED IN THE PARTY AS SYMPATHETIC TO THE 
OPPOSITION MDC, ACCORDING TO ONE LOCAL POLITICAL 
OBSERVER.  MNANGAGWA, WIDELY FEARED AND DESPISED 
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY, COULD BE AN EVEN MORE REPRESSIVE 
LEADER IF HE TURNS OUT TO BE MUGABE'S ANNOINTED ONE. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) MUGABE'S NEWLY APPOINTED RULING PARTY POLITBURO, 
ANNOUNCED DECEMBER 15 AT THE ZANU-PF SPECIAL CONGRESS, 
APPEARS TO FAVOR THE ASCENDANCY OF SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT 
EMMERSON MNANGAGWA.  MNANGAGWA, WHO DIRECTED THE CIO AND 
PRESIDED OVER THE MATABELELAND MASSACRES DURING THE 
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1980S, WAS ON THE BRINK OF POLITICAL OBLIVION EARLIER 
THIS YEAR AFTER HE LOST HIS KWEKWE SEAT IN THE JUNE 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TO THE OBSCURE BLESSING CHEBONDO 
OF THE MDC.  MUGABE RESCUED HIM BY ENSURING HE WAS 
ELECTED SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT IN AUGUST.  MNANGAGWA'S 
POSITION WAS FURTHER STRENGTHENED WITH HIS APPOINTMENT 
TO THE NUMBER FOUR POSITION IN THE PARTY AS SECRETARY 
FOR ADMINISTRATION (ONLY PRESIDENT MUGABE AND THE TWO 
VICE-PRESIDENTS HOLD HIGHER POSITIONS).  MNANGAGWA 
REPLACED DIDYMUS MUTASA, WHO IS CANINELY LOYAL TO 
MNANGAGWA AND WHOSE OWN PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRATIONS NOW 
HAVE BEEN SIDELINED.  FROM THIS PLATFORM, MNANGAGWA WILL 
BE ABLE TO EXERCISE CONSIDERABLE CONTROL OVER ZANU-PF'S 
STRUCTURES AND THE PEOPLE WHO FILL THEM. 
 
3.  (C) STRENGTHENING MNANGAGWA'S POSITION IN THE NEW 
POLITBURO IS THE APPOINTMENT OF HIS ALLIES TO IMPORTANT 
POSITIONS AND THE SIDELINING OF HIS RIVALS.  ACCORDING TO 
THE "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT," RICHARD HOVE IS AN ALLY OF 
MNANGAGWA'S FROM HIS HOME MIDLANDS PROVINCE, AND WAS 
MADE SECRETARY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS.  HOVE WAS ALSO 
APPOINTED TO HEAD UP THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S NEW LAND 
REFORM STANDING COMMITTEE (REF B).  THE "INDEPENDENT" 
DESCRIBES OTHER POLITBURO ALLIES OF THE SPEAKER AS: 
DAVID KARIMANZIRA (MASHONALAND EAST GOVERNOR AND ZANU-PF 
SECRETARY FOR FINANCE), WITNESS MANGWENDE (DEPUTY 
 
SIPDIS 
SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION), AND ENOS CHIKOWORE 
 
SIPDIS 
(SECRETARY FOR LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT).  EACH NOW 
OCCUPIES SOME OF THE POLITBURO'S MOST CRITICAL PORTFOLIOS, 
AND EACH WAS ELEVATED FROM OBSCURE POSTS IN THE POLITBURO 
STRUCTURE.  THEY ARE ALSO MOSTLY SPENT FORCES KNOWN FOR 
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THEIR STRIDENT AND SHRILL ANTI-WESTERN REMARKS.  (NOTE: 
ALTHOUGH IT IS UNKNOWN TO WHAT EXTENT YOUTH DEVELOPMENT 
MINISTER AND PARTY COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI SUPPORTS 
MNANGAGWA, THE 36-YEAR-OLD GEZI HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF 
AN MNANGAGWA PROTEGE.  GEZI, AS GOVERNOR OF MASHONALAND 
WEST, WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN DIRECTING THE TERROR CAMPAIGN 
AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS IN HIS PROVINCE EARLIER THIS 
YEAR, AND HE IS CURRENTLY LEADING A CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE 
IN THE BIKITA WEST CONSTITUENCY FOR THE JANUARY BY- 
ELECTION [REF A].  END NOTE.) 
 
4.  (C) MNANGAGWA RIVALS, SUCH AS ENERGY MINISTER SYDNEY 
SEKERAMAYI AS SECRETARY FOR HEALTH AND CHILD WELFARE, 
AND FORMER ARMY GENERAL SOLOMON MUJURU AS MEMBER WITHOUT 
PORTFOLIO, HAVE BEEN RELEGATED TO THE POLITBURO 
PERIPHERY.  ACCORDING TO UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE 
PROFESSOR BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, RIVAL EDDISON ZVOBGO WAS 
FORCED OUT OF THE POLITBURO ALTOGETHER AS A WAY TO 
PROTECT MNANGAGWA'S ASCENDANCY.  A POTENTIAL RIVAL, 
FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI--OFTEN TOUTED AS A 
POSSIBLE SUCCESSOR TO MUGABE--WAS MADE THE PARTY'S 
DEPUTY SECRETARY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, UNDER THE 
WATCHFUL EYE OF MNANGAGWA'S FRIEND HOVE.  THE NEW 
POLITBURO HAS BEEN SET UP TO SUPPORT MNANGAGWA AND 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7469 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  07266  02 OF 02  281245Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------B06523  281246Z /38 
O 281245Z DEC 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7897 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 007266 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/10 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07266  02 OF 02  281245Z 
TAGS:  PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: NEW ZIMBABWE POLITBURO STRENGTHENS MNANGAGWA'S 
BID TO SUCCEED MUGABE 
 
SIDELINE HIS FOES, ACCORDING TO RAFTOPOULOS. 
 
5.  (C) RAFTOPOULOS TOLD US THAT HE ALSO SEES AN ETHNIC 
DIMENSION TO THE POLITBURO APPOINTMENTS.  THE NDEBELE 
AND MANICA--WHOSE HOME PROVINCES ARE DOMINATED BY THE 
MDC--ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPPOSITION, AND ZANU-PF 
MEMBERS FROM THOSE AREAS ARE MORE OFTEN SUSPECTED OF 
HARBORING SYMPATHIES FOR THE OPPOSITION.  AS A RESULT, 
THE NDEBELE OR MANICA NO LONGER RETAIN INDEPENDENT POWER 
BASES IN ZANU-PF, AND THE NEW POLITBURO REFLECTS THAT, 
ACCORDING TO RAFTOPOULOS.  NONE OF THE NEW POLITBURO 
DEPARTMENT HEADS HAIL FROM MATABELELAND OR MANICALAND, 
TO OUR KNOWLEDGE.  THE DEPARTURE OF ZVOBGO WEAKENS HIS 
POSITION IN KALANGA-DOMINATED MASVINGO, WHERE ZANU-PF 
AND THE MDC ARE BATTLING FOR INFLUENCE.  ZANU-PF IS 
TRYING TO THWART A POSSIBLE NDEBELE-KALANGA ALLIANCE LED 
BY ZVOBGO, WHO HAS BEEN TRYING TO DILUTE THE ZANU-PF 
LEADERSHIP'S AUTHORITY IN MASVINGO, RAFTOPOULOS STATED. 
ZANU-PF IS TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN "POWER AXIS" 
BETWEEN THE ZEZURU OF MASHONALAND AND THE KALANGA OF 
MASVINGO BY SIDELINING ZVOBGO AND INSTALLING PARTY 
LEADERS LOYAL TO HARARE IN MASVINGO, ACCORDING TO 
RAFTOPOULOS. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT: MUGABE'S NEW POLITBURO NOT ONLY 
CONSOLIDATES HIS OWN POSITION IN ZANU-PF, IT APPEARS TO 
PUT MNANGAGWA NEAR THE APEX OF PARTY POWER.  IF MUGABE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  07266  02 OF 02  281245Z 
IS INDEED THINKING OF STEPPING DOWN A YEAR OR TWO AFTER 
WINNING ONE MORE TERM, AS A NUMBER OF INTERLOCUTORS HAVE 
TOLD US, NOW WOULD BE THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING A 
SUCCESSOR.  MNANGAGWA IS A LONG-TIME AND CLOSE ALLY OF 
MUGABE AND HAS THE FULL CONFIDENCE OF THE PRESIDENT. 
THE SPEAKER'S FEARED REPUTATION AS AN "ENFORCER" WOULD 
SERVE MUGABE'S DESIRE TO HOLD ZANU-PF TOGETHER AND 
DEFEAT THE MDC USING ANY MEANS NECESSARY.  IF HE BECAME 
PRESIDENT, MNANGAGWA COULD TURN OUT TO BE JUST AS 
DICTATORIAL AS MUGABE; RAFTOPOULOS BELIEVES HE WOULD BE 
EVEN MORE RUTHLESS THAN MUGABE.  IT IS STILL FAR TOO 
EARLY TO TELL WHETHER MNANGAGWA IS THE ACTUAL HEIR 
APPARENT, BUT RECENT EVENTS MAKE HIM THE EARLY FAVORITE. 
 
IRVING 
 
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