US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU407

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000407 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA 
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: NEPAL:  KING PONDERING POSSIBLE POLLS NEXT YEAR 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 0279 
 
Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  Royal confidant Prabhakar Rana told the Ambassador 
on March 3 that King Gyanendra is considering holding 
national elections by May 2005. There was no indication of 
when an official announcement might be made.  While we view 
free and fair elections as the best way to restore Nepal's 
derailed democracy, the King's strategy for encouraging the 
participation of estranged political parties--at least as 
described by Rana--has been tried before with no success.  We 
believe that relations between the parties and the Palace 
have not improved sufficiently to warrant significant 
optimism that an all-party government is likely.  There does 
appear, however, to be growing support for elections within 
the Government.  End summary. 
 
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KING CONSIDERING ELECTIONS 
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2.  (C)  On March 3 Prabhakar Rana, a confidant and business 
partner of King Gyanendra, told the Ambassador that he had 
been instructed by the King to relay to the U.S. his views 
about holding long-delayed national elections.  Rana said the 
King had begun seriously weighing the possibility of holding 
national elections by May 2005.  (Note:  This projection 
differs from the October/November timeframe we have heard 
suggested by others, including, recently, the Prime Minister. 
 End note.)  Local elections could be held "whenever and 
wherever possible."  The King wanted to convey that he would 
welcome foreign assitance, to include election monitors, to 
help ensure free and fair elections, Rana stressed. 
 
3.  (C)  The King recognizes that successful elections will 
require the participation of the political parties, Rana 
explained, and is contemplating two separate scenarios to 
encourage their cooperation.  First, he might convoke a 
meeting of leaders of major political parties to brief them 
on his recent visits in western Nepal (Reftel) and to explain 
his current thinking on elections.  Alternatively, he might 
invite party leaders to join an all-party government, led by 
Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, to prepare for elections. 
 The King realizes the parties would likely reject this 
offer, Rana said, and is thus prepared to offer as a 
fall-back proposal the possibility of joining an all-party 
government under a different Prime Minister.  Membership in 
the Cabinet would be open only to those who would not run in 
the election, according to Rana, and the purpose and term of 
the new interim government would be limited to holding the 
elections.  (Note:  These are the same conditions that the 
King set for membership in the Cabinet of former Prime 
Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand.  None of the protesting 
political parties accepted the offer.  End note.)  The King 
realizes that only the Election Commissioner can set the date 
for elections, Rana said, but added that the King may 
announce his plans for an all-party government and hopes for 
elections during his visit to Pokhara on March 28. 
 
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INDIANS REPORTEDLY IN FAVOR 
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4.  (C)  Rana said that the only other foreign mission 
apprised of the King's plans is the Indian Embassy. 
According to Rana, Indian Ambassador Shyam Saran indicated 
that his government would support plans to hold elections. 
Rana reported that he plans to travel to New Delhi March 7-8 
to brief Indian National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra on 
the King's thinking. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5.  (C)  We have been pressing the Government of Nepal for 
some time to review seriously possibilities for elections. 
This communication marks another indication--we have had 
several recently--that the Government is beginning to do so. 
There are a number of factors that must be carefully 
considered; the likelihood of violent Maoist efforts to 
disrupt polling is just one of numerous significant hurdles 
the Government must confront.  That said, free and fair 
elections are clearly the best resolution that we can 
envision to the protracted political stalemate and the 
suspension of representative democracy.  We are concerned, 
however, that the King's strategy for attracting support from 
the political parties, at least as described by Rana, seems a 
rehash of the same Palace proposals the parties have rejected 
several times already.  We have seen no subsequent 
improvement in the chilly relations between the parties and 
the Palace that leads us to believe that this time prospects 
that the parties will cooperate are any brighter.  If 
anything, the King's recent round of visits to 
Maoist-affected areas--where no national political leader has 
dared or bothered to appear for years--has further 
exacerbated the politicians' distrust and suspicion of his 
motives.  Under these circumstances, a unilateral 
announcement from the King heralding the onset of elections 
that had not been thoroughly briefed to the parties 
beforehand is unlikely to be welcomed by them.  We will do 
our part to urge the parties' participation, but we will also 
urge the Palace to meet the parties halfway by consulting 
with them earlier, rather than later, in the process. 
MALINOWSKI