US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA206

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000206 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
TREASURY FOR CHGREWE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ECON, LO 
SUBJECT: ARCHITECT OF ECONOMIC REFORMS TO BE SACKED? 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
1.  (U) SLOVAK MINISTER OF FINANCE AND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER 
IVAN MIKLOS, THE ARCHITECT OF THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC REBIRTH 
    OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS, FACES A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE IN THE 
NEAR FUTURE WHICH HE MAY NOT SURVIVE.  ALL OPPOSITION GROUPS 
HAVE REPORTEDLY CLOSED RANKS ON THIS ISSUE AND ARE WITHIN 
TWO OR THREE VOTES OF REACHING THE SIMPLE MAJORITY OF 76 
VOTES NEEDED IN PARLIAMENT.  ECONOMIC REFORMS DESIGNED BY 
MIKLOS ARE BLAMED FOR SOCIAL UNREST AMONG SLOVAKIA'S ROMA 
MINORITY LAST WEEK AND GENERAL CONCERN AMONG THE COUNTRY'S 
POORER CLASSES.  MIKLOS' FUTURE NOW APPEARS TO REST IN THE 
HANDS OF EIGHT OR NINE INDEPENDENT AND RENEGADE MPS. 
 
2.  (U) OPPOSITION LEADER ROBERT FICO OF THE SMER PARTY HAS 
LONG SOUGHT THIS ACTION AGAINST MIKLOS BUT COULD NEVER GAIN 
THE COOPERATION OF OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES.  NOW, HOWEVER, 
VLADIMIR MECIAR OF THE HZDS PARTY HAS TAKEN THE LEAD AND 
WILL PETITION THE PARLIAMENT TO HOLD THE NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE. 
THE COMMUNIST PARTY AND SPLINTER OPPOSITION GROUPS QUICKLY 
JOINED THE CAUSE TO FORM THE STRONGEST THREAT YET TO MIKLOS. 
THE OPPOSITION APPEARS TO HAVE 73 OR 74 VOTES AGAINST 
MIKLOS, INCLUDING SEVEN DEPUTIES FROM IVAN SIMKO'S FREE 
FORUM PLATFORM WHO FORMERLY WERE PART OF PRIME MINISTER 
MIKULAS DZURINDA'S SDKU PARTY IN THE RULING COALITION. 
 
3.  (SBU)  COMMENT: THE PROPOSAL FOR MIKLOS' OUSTER WILL 
LIKELY BE DELIVERED TO PARLIAMENT NEXT WEEK AND ACTED UPON 
WITHIN SEVEN DAYS ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE DELAYED AS LONG AS 30 
DAYS.  IN THE MEANTIME, BOTH SIDES WILL BE COURTING THE 
HANDFUL OF MPS WHO HAVE NOT COMMITTED THEIR VOTES.  THE 
PROSPECT OF BACKROOM DEALS WILL COMPLICATE THIS ISSUE, 
FURTHER MAKING A CLEAR READING DIFFICULT TO GIVE.  IF THE NO- 
CONFIDENCE VOTE SUCCEEDS, MIKLOS WILL LOSE HIS MINISTRY BUT 
REMAIN A DEPUTY, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE REPORTS HE MIGHT RESIGN 
    TO ENTER THE PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO.  WHILE 
THE GOS WOULD SUFFER A POLITICAL DEFEAT, IT WOULD NOT MEAN 
THE GOVERNMENT WOULD FALL; MANY MORE DEPUTIES ARE PREPARED 
TO COUNTENANCE SACKING THE SOMETIMES ARROGANT MIKLOS THAN 
ARE PREPARED TO UNSEAT THE ENTIRE COALITION. 
 
THAYER 
 
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