US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA205

UNCLAS  BRATISLAVA 000205 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, LO, POLITICAL REFORM 
SUBJECT: Slovakia Political Roundup February 7-27, 2004 
 
 
1. Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
Same Date, Separate Elections 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The referendum on early parliamentary elections, 
though scheduled for the same day as the presidential 
election, will not be on the same ballot because the 
referendum requires a different electoral commission and 
polling station.  Speculation that polling places for the 
two votes could end up across town is likely not true 
(separate rooms is more probable) but as a result of the 
separation the cost will be the same as if the elections 
were held on separate dates.  There will still be 
disincentives for voters, since they will have to wait in 
two separate lines to vote in both elections.  Smer MP 
Kalinak told poloffs Smer is divided about supporting Rudolf 
Schuster for re-election; some in the party prefer Ivan 
Gasparovic.  Kalinak added that Foreign Minister Eduard 
Kukan's closeness to PM Dzurinda, considering coalition 
troubles and upset over the fast pace of economic reforms, 
may hurt Kukan at the polls. 
 
OSCE May Want to Monitor Election 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) OSCE representatives told polec officers that while 
they are confident in the electoral process, they are 
considering a monitoring mission because some member states 
are concerned about the pairing of the presidential election 
and a referendum on early Parliamentary elections, and about 
Vladimir Meciar's participation. 
 
Gasparovic: If I Get to Second Round, I Could Win... 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
4. (SBU) Movement for Democracy (HZD) Chairman Ivan 
Gasparovic told poloffs on February 24 that he expects the 
first round of presidential elections to be tough, but if he 
happened to make it to the second round, Gasparovic said he 
could win.  He laments lack of funding and visibility 
compared to the three candidates ahead of him in the polls, 
who are in government and appear frequently in the media. 
He expects support from the six percent of voters who 
indicate a preference for the Slovak National Party, saying 
they support Zilina mayor Jan Slota's wing, not that of 
Peter Sulovsky (whom he called a "nobody").  He rejected the 
idea that he was allying with extremists and said his 
Coalition of National Forces will serve to push extremism 
out of nationally-oriented parties.  If Meciar wins, it 
might be a good thing, Gasparovic said, as Meciar would 
concentrate on the office, protecting his property, and 
ensuring his and his children's financial safety, leaving 
the top post in HZDS open for Gasparovic to claim.  In 
Gasparovic's opinion, the two men have no hope for 
reconciliation.  (Comment: Gasparovic has been somewhat 
marginalized since his split with Meciar and HZDS before the 
2002 election in which his HZD did not make it to 
Parliament.  He has no realistic chance of winning the 
presidency, but he will have raised his own and his party's 
profile substantially). 
 
SMK: Closer to a Presidential Choice 
------------------------------------ 
 
5. (SBU) Recent press reports indicate the Party of the 
Hungarian Coalition (SMK) will endorse KDH presidential 
candidate Frantisek Miklosko, which would boost his chances. 
(Comment: SMK supporters tend to follow voting 
recommendations from their party.)  If the run-off ends with 
Meciar and Schuster, SMK Secretary General Peter Voros and 
Spokeswoman Livia Pokstaller privately told us SMK would 
support Schuster.  They explained that party chair Bela 
Bugar and others sees the coalition problems as damaging 
Slovakia's stability and image abroad and discouraging 
investors.  They suggested the current ad-hoc assembly of 
support for the minority government is not a long-term 
solution for the coalition troubles. 
 
6. (SBU) SMK is very happy about the new Hungarian 
University in Komarno, which will give opportunities to 
ethnic Hungarians in southern Slovakia (but it is not 
running at full capacity yet).  The SMK leaders said Deputy 
Prime Minister Pal Csaky has been losing influence in SMK 
lately, is not very capable and is no longer supported by 
most SMK voters, as was the case in the past election term. 
But, they were pleasantly surprised by the successful 
outcome of Csaky's negotiations with KDH Justice Minister 
Daniel Lipsic that led to Cabinet approval of an anti- 
discrimination law. 
 
Slovak-Hungarian Agreement on Ethnic Minorities in Force 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
7. (SBU) The Slovak-Hungarian agreement on mutual support 
for ethnic minorities came into effect February 13 after 
some delays relating to administration of benefits to 
Slovaks in Hungary.  SMK spokesmen publicly opined in 
January that this would help the Kukan campaign among 
Hungarian voters.  But contacts have told poloffs there is 
still friction over the Hungarian Status law, which the GOS 
feels has extraterritorial and discriminatory elements.  The 
GOS would prefer that the Hungarians address all issues 
affecting the Hungarian minority in Slovakia through the 
existing bilateral agreement and reciprocal benefits for 
minorities in both countries. 
 
Sulovsky's Slovak National Party: We Are Not Extreme 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
8. (SBU) Poloffs met with official Slovak National Party 
(SNS) Chairman Peter Sulovsky and Vice-chairman Viliam 
Oberhauser to discuss the party's plans and the recent 
conflict over leadership of the party (a court ruled in 
Sulovsky's favor, but Zilina mayor Jan Slota still claims to 
be the party's true leader).  Sulovsky is interested in 
moving away from the radical SNS Slota represents.  Sulovsky 
supports the EU, though cautioning the integration process 
should be slower; NATO accession is no longer an issue for 
this SNS.  He said the economic reforms are necessary, but 
the government should have assessed their impact better so 
as to prevent the current unrest.  Sulovsky said the 6 
percent of voters who indicate support for SNS in most polls 
mean his party, not Slota's.  He added that his party is 
more respected abroad and that his concept of a "national 
party" will become more important in the EU.  The SNS 
perceives the U.S. Republican Party as its ideological ally 
(as does Gasparovic).  SNS has not chosen a presidential 
candidate to support but is leaning toward Meciar.  SNS 
could work with most other parties, particularly KDH and 
even SMK, as he said even the Hungarian minority has the 
same economic concerns as everyone else. 
 
THAYER 
 
 
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