US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV1291

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001291 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR BURNS/SATTERFIELD 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/DANIN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2014 
TAGS: KPAL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, GOI INTERNAL, SETTLEMENTS 
SUBJECT: PEACE NOW CHIEF SKEPTICAL BUT SUPPORTIVE OF PM'S 
DISENGAGEMENT PLAN 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The head of Peace Now told Embassy econoff 
that he welcomed the PM's initiative calling for the 
unilateral dismantling of settlements in the Gaza Strip and 
some in the West Bank.  Peace Now is skeptical, however, 
about the PM's seriousness and cautioned the U.S. to look at 
the actions of this government rather than the words.  The 
organization does not foresee the imminent demise of the 
government coalition despite the harsh rhetoric from those 
within the government who oppose the plan.  Peace Now 
predicts those in opposition to the plan will wait until the 
PM takes an irrevocable step before quitting the government, 
such as the ordering of the evacuation of a settlement or 
large occupied outpost.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) The General Secretary of Peace Now, Yariv 
Oppenheimer, told Embassy econoff on February 25 that his 
organization is taking a wait and see approach to the PM's 
unilateral disengagement plan.  Oppenheimer said the hallmark 
of Sharon's settlement policy has been "positive rhetoric, 
backed up by little action on the ground."  Oppenheimer 
remarked that had the PM taken already promised action 
against the outposts there would be few outposts remaining. 
Oppenheimer remarked that the government's unofficial motto 
to the settlers is "see what I do, not what I say." 
Oppenheimer speculated that the PM may have made the decision 
to announce the unilateral disengagement plan for any number 
of reasons, including: to divert attention from his ongoing 
legal troubles; to staunch the negative tide of international 
pressure caused by the seam-zone barrier; to appear to the 
Israeli public as having a long-term strategy; or because he 
really believes this is the best option at this time. 
Oppenheimer suggested that the real answer is probably a 
combination of these factors, but cautioned against expecting 
action any time soon. 
 
3.  (C) Oppenheimer was upbeat about the effect that the 
announcement has had upon the Israeli public.  During last 
year's election the Likud "successfully painted Mitzna 
(former Labor party leader) as naive for proposing this 
plan," Oppenheimer said. "Now, this same plan is being 
introduced by Sharon."  Oppenheimer highlighted the widely 
reported poll in the nation's largest independent newspaper, 
Yediot Aronoth, which claimed that three-quarters of the 
Israeli population support a unilateral withdrawal from the 
Gaza Strip settlements.  According to Oppenheimer, it will be 
very difficult for the national consensus to walk away from 
the concept of withdrawing from the Gaza Strip settlements 
now that their "architect is on board."  Sharon, he said, has 
made the idea of unilateral settlement withdrawal a centrist 
philosophy again. 
 
4.  (C) Oppenheimer said he has been stunned by the low key 
response to the initiative from settlement leaders.  He 
perceived the settler's march to the PM's office last week, 
their current vigil outside the Knesset, and statements by 
their leadership as perfunctory, lacking the fire and numbers 
that were typical of protests at the start of the Oslo 
Accords.  Oppenheimer speculated that the reason for this low 
key response could be three-fold; the Gaza Strip settlements 
are small, holding little spiritual or historic value to most 
Israelis; the majority of settlers in the West Bank have 
resigned themselves to the possibility of Gaza settlements 
being evacuated; and/or the settlers are skeptical about 
whether Sharon is committed. 
 
5. (C) When asked about whether the settlement withdrawal 
plan could initiate the fall of the current government 
coalition, Oppenheimer said that he believed it unlikely that 
either the National Religious Party (NRP) or National Union 
would leave the government before an irrevocable step was 
taken.  Only the dismantlement of a settlement or serious 
action against large occupied outposts would cause these 
parties to abandon their current posts.  Oppenheimer 
predicted that the leadership of these parties will denounce 
a PM visit to the U.S. to gain support for the plan, but will 
stop short of leaving the government.  Oppenheimer stressed 
that ministers Eitam, Elon, Lieberman, Katz, and other 
settlement supporters in the government are being given a 
virtual free hand to continue settlement activity, at the 
mere cost of the PM's verbal statements to the U.S.  These 
ministers know that if they quit the government, their 
replacements (probably the Labor party) will freeze most 
settlement activity, Oppenheimer said.  He concluded that 
"they will wait until the last possible moment before leaving 
the government." 
 
6.  (C) Comment:  We agree with Oppenheimer's analysis, 
despite Lieberman's threats to the contrary, that the NRP and 
National Union will remain in the government as long as they 
can still credibly claim to their constituents that they are 
using their positions to foil the PM's disengagement 
impulses.  The GOI continues to provide funding and 
assistance for settlement activity and drag its feet on the 
removal of all outposts established after March 2001.  NRP 
and National Union can argue reasonably to their constituents 
that this would not be possible if they left the government. 
End comment. 
 
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