US embassy cable - 04CARACAS700

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 000700 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: WEEKEND OF CONFLICT IN CARACAS; NO CNE DECISION YET 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Opposition groups staged two days of protests in the 
wake of the February 27 march that left one dead and dozens 
injured.  The GOV staged its own march of hundreds of 
thousands on February 28 to protest U.S. intervention in 
Venezuelan affairs.  Speaking to the crowd, President Chavez 
delivered an unusually ferocious attack against the USG, in 
which he repeatedly attacked President Bush, claiming he had 
evidence of U.S. invasion plans.  The President promised to 
meet any blockade or invasion by cutting off oil to the U.S.; 
any actions against Venezuelan companies in the U.S. would be 
reciprocated against U.S. companies in Venezuela.  The 
National Electoral Council (CNE) did not/not report the 
preliminary results of the presidential recall signature 
drive on February 29 as planned and plans to meet on March 1 
to come to an agreement.  The CNE approved instructions for 
the five-day challenge period for the referendum petition 
signatures and asked for comments from the parties.  End 
summary. 
 
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Three Days of Conflict 
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2. (U) In the wake of the GOV's quelling of the opposition's 
march on February 27, small opposition groups staged protests 
throughout Venezuela on February 28 and 29.  Protesters 
blocked roads, burning tires and trash day and night, 
throughout the eastern part of Caracas.  GOV security forces 
made little effort to clear protests and open roads.  Similar 
incidents were reported in the states of Zulia, Carabobo, 
Lara, Anzoategui, and Tachira.  Some protesters claimed to be 
acting under Article 350 of the constitution, which obligates 
citizens to reject a government that strays from democratic 
rule or violates human rights.  Graffiti around Caracas says: 
"RR or 350" (Recall Referendum or Article 350 of the 
Constitution). 
 
3. (U) In Caracas, the main conflict February 29 occurred at 
Plaza Francia in the pro-opposition area of Altamira, where 
dozens of National Guard clashed with more than a hundred 
protesters.  Eight protesters were wounded by gunshots and 
more than 100 suffered from tear gas, according to Chacao 
Mayor Leopoldo Lopez. 
 
4. (U) An opposition group of about 120 people demonstrated 
support for the USG at the Embassy on February 29.  The 
demonstration was peaceful and without incident. 
 
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GOV Rallies March Against Imperialism 
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5. (C) The GOV organized a mass march on February 29 with 
participants from all over the country.  The theme was 
rejection of U.S. intervention in Venezuela and of electoral 
fraud by the opposition.  Foreign press reports said more 
than 100,000 people attended the march, which ended on the 
Francisco Fajardo highway.  Private media reports showed more 
than a hundred buses used to transport many march 
participants from outside Caracas.  Poloff observed about 300 
pro-government marchers heading toward the march's beginning 
point under escort by five armed men in plain clothes on 
motorcycle.  The marchers appeared to be from the states of 
Cojedes and Anzoategui and carried anti-U.S. signs.  DCM 
observed marchers arriving from eastern Caracas.  The class 
and racial differences between these marchers and the 
anti-GOV marchers were striking.  Most marchers were 
organized (e.g., by participation in Plan Ribas, Plan 
Robinson, Diosdado Cabello supporters) and identified by 
T-shirts.  The demonstrations were enthusiastic. 
 
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Chavez Alleges U.S. Invasion Plans 
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6. (U) During his two-and-a-half-hour speech to march 
participants, obligatorily broadcast on all Venezuelan 
television and radio stations, President Chavez railed 
against the United States for alleged imperialism and 
intervention throughout the world.  He claimed to have radio 
intercepts from February 28 proving that U.S. warships were 
preparing to invade Venezuela.  Chavez threatened to cut off 
oil shipments to the U.S. if the USG moved to blockade or 
invade Venezuela.  Chavez also vowed to reciprocate any 
actions against Venezuelan assets in the United States with 
actions against U.S. investments in Venezuela.  Chavez 
offered a bet to President Bush that he, Chavez, would remain 
in officer longer.  He also made a racially-charged reference 
to Secretary Powell's decision not to run for president in 
1996 for fear of being assassinated.  He insulted the 
President, twice calling him a "pendejo" (literally a pubic 
hair, colloquially a derogatory term for idiot). 
 
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CNE Puts Off Decision One More Day 
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7. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) director Jorge 
Rodriguez (pro-GOV) announced late on February 29 that the 
CNE board would release preliminary results of the 
verification of signatures collected in support of a recall 
referendum against President Chavez 24 hours later on March 
1.  The CNE worked over the weekend without the two 
opposition directors, Ezequiel Zamora and Sobella Mejias.  In 
their absence, the CNE board approved instructions for the 
five-day challenge process to affirm or contest signatures 
tossed out during the verification process.  Rodriguez said 
the parties to the signature drive could "evaluate the 
appropriateness" of the instructions before the preliminary 
results are released.  Zamora said publicly that the 
instructions as approved would make the referendum not 
feasible. 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) Having reached the boiling point, the political 
situation is only going to be made more tense by the CNE's 
decision.  It is doubtful the CNE is going to reach a 
mutually favorable decision on the five-day challenge process 
and the number of signatures subject to it.  Though he was 
clearly playing it up for the occasion, Chavez's speech was 
the most severe anti-American rhetoric in the past two years. 
 He has marked the United States as the intellectual masters 
of the opposition, equating an electoral solution with a coup 
and, now, with an invasion.  While Chavez's charges against 
us are laughable, the capacity for his supporters to listen 
to him crying wolf, and believe him, seems infinite. 
 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA00700 - CONFIDENTIAL