US embassy cable - 04MADRID712

UNCLAS MADRID 000712 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, SP, Spanish Election March 2004, Counterterrorism 
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: SPANISH ELECTIONS: MAJOR ETA ATTACK ON 
MADRID FOILED 
 
REF: MADRID 679 
 
1.  Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
2. (U) The Guardia Civil arrested two ETA members in the 
pre-dawn of February 29 on a highway about a hundred miles 
east of Madrid.   One of the ETA operatives was in a van 
carrying over 500 kg of explosives; the other was in a 
lookout car.   They entered Spain from France via Huesca. 
Interior Minister Acebes reports that their target was 
Madrid.  Police estimate that detonation of the explosives 
would have left a crater 35 meters in diameter and that 
anyone within 60 meters of the explosion would have been 
killed.   It was the second largest Spanish police 
interception of explosives in the 35-year battle against ETA. 
 
 
3. (SBU) As reported reftel, Police contacts had indicated to 
us their concerns that ETA would attack during the election 
campaign (which officially began February 27).   Police 
believe ETA seeks to demonstrate that it still is operational 
and wants to back up its self-declared "cease-fire" for 
Catalonia by striking elsewhere in Spain.   Police remain on 
high alert to guard against other possible attacks prior to 
the March 14 general elections.   The two arrested ETA 
members were reportedly on their first mission.    This 
conforms with Spanish police analysis that ETA operational 
cell members are increasingly inexperienced and prone to 
error. 
4. (SBU) The February 29 arrests follow on the December 24 
police pre-emption of another ETA bombing.  In that instance, 
two ETA members placed backpacks with 25 kg of explosives 
each on a train going to Madrid from Irun (Basque region). 
The explosives were timed to explode once the train arrived 
at the station in Madrid.  Police uncovered the bombs soon 
after they were placed.  Some analysts note that the averted 
truck bomb and the averted bombing of the Madrid train 
station indicate that ETA, as it declines, may be moving into 
a phase of more indiscriminate attacks.    In both occasions, 
ETA sought high profile periods, Christmas Eve or the 
national election campaign, for maximum publicity impact. 
 
5.  (SBU) Popular Party leader Mariano Rajoy used the 
incident to demonstrate the success of the PP government's 
antiterrorism strategy, which has resulted in hundreds of 
arrests and the significant disruption of the ETA 
organization.  The core of the GOS strategy is the need to go 
after the entire ETA infrastructure: financing, logistics, 
political support, and recruiting and not just the 
operational cells.    Rajoy reiterated February 29 that 
defeating ETA would be his number one priority as President 
of the Government (as it has been for Aznar). 
 
6.  (U) Interior Minister Acebes used the arrests to draw 
attention to the Socialists' pact with the pro-independence 
ERC party in Catalonia.   Acebes said that ERC leader 
Carod-Rovira -- who met with ETA leaders in January -- must 
be "very satisfied" that Madrid was the intended target, not 
Catalonia.   Socialist leader Rodriguez Zapatero, and various 
media, strongly criticized Acebes and the PP for politicizing 
the fight against ETA. 
 
7. (SBU) Comment:  Although foiled in this case, ETA has 
demonstrated that despite the many arrests and pressures it 
has suffered, it is still operational (albeit at a much lower 
level than previously).   Like a wounded animal, ETA appears 
determined to lash out -- and would like nothing better than 
to do so during the current election campaign. 
MANZANARES