US embassy cable - 00HARARE7164

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 007164 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID RMCCALL, AA/AFR VDERRYCK, AFR/SA 
CPALMA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07164  01 OF 02  201308Z 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY CRANKS UP INTIMIDATION 
FOR NEW BY-ELECTION 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: THE ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY IS CRANKING 
ITS VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION MACHINE INTO HIGH GEAR FOR 
THE BIKITA WEST BY-ELECTION NOW SCHEDULED FOR JANUARY 
13-14, 2001.  THE BY-ELECTION IS BEING HELD TO REPLACE 
THE MDC MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT WHO DIED OF AN ILLNESS IN 
NOVEMBER.  YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER AND NEW ZANU-PF 
COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI HAS DEPLOYED BUSLOADS OF ZANU-PF 
YOUTH AND WAR VETERANS TO BIKITA WEST, IN MASVINGO 
PROVINCE, TO HARASS OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS, STEAL VOTER 
IDENTIFICATION CARDS, AND CLOSE OFF THE AREA TO MDC 
RALLIES, ACCORDING TO AN MDC ADVISOR IN BIKITA WEST. 
FIFTY PEOPLE WERE INJURED IN CLASHES BETWEEN MDC AND 
ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS ON DECEMBER 17.  THE MDC CANDIDATE 
HAS ALREADY GONE INTO HIDING.  GIVEN THE MDC'S NARROW 
MARGIN OF VICTORY IN JUNE, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ZANU- 
PF WILL BE ABLE TO INTIMIDATE ANOTHER CONSTITUENCY INTO 
VOTING FOR ITS CANDIDATE AND BOOST ITS MAJORITY IN 
PARLIAMENT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) ON DECEMBER 19, POLOFF MET ALEX MUPA, AN MDC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  07164  01 OF 02  201308Z 
MEMBER AND ADVISOR TO MDC CANDIDATE FOR PARLIAMENT IN 
BIKITA WEST, BONIFACE PAKAI.  MUPA REPORTED THAT AFTER 
ZANU-PF CONCLUDED ITS CONGRESS ON DECEMBER 16, YOUTH 
DEVELOPMENT MINISTER AND NEW RULING PARTY COMMISSAR 
BORDER GEZI DEPLOYED FIVE BUSLOADS AND 14 TRUCKLOADS OF 
ZANU-PF YOUTH AND WAR VETERANS TO NYIKA GROWTH POINT IN 
BIKITA WEST.  (NOTE: GEZI, JUST ELEVATED TO THE 
POLITBURO, LED ZANU-PF'S INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN IN JUNE 
IN MASHONALAND WEST, WHERE HE WAS GOVERNOR.  END NOTE.) 
THE YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTRY MAINTAINS A YOUTH 
TRAINING FACILITY IN BIKITA, SO THE PARTY CAN EASILY PUT 
UP HUNDREDS OF SUPPORTERS IN THE CONSTITUENCY, MUPA 
CLAIMED.  TWO OF THE TRUCKS USED IN THE OPERATION WERE 
ARMY VEHICLES, HE ADDED.  CHIKOMBA MP AND WAR VETERANS 
LEADER CHENJERAI HUNZVI AND SELF-STYLED FARM OCCUPATIONS 
LEADER JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA HAVE ALSO APPEARED IN BIKITA 
WEST TO ORGANIZE THE INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN.  THE 
DECEMBER 19 "THE DAILY NEWS" REPORTED THAT, SHORTLY 
AFTER THE ZANU-PF OPERATIVES DESCENDED ON BIKITA WEST ON 
DECEMBER 17, CLASHES ERUPTED WITH MDC SUPPORTERS, AND 50 
PEOPLE WERE INJURED.  THE "NEWS" REPORTED THAT A YOUTH 
WEARING AN MDC T-SHIRT WAS SEVERELY BEATEN, AND MUPA 
CLAIMED HE LATER DIED FROM HIS INJURIES. 
 
3.  (C) THE ZANU-PF "TASK FORCE" HAS WASTED NO TIME IN 
INTIMIDATING THE RESIDENTS OF BIKITA WEST, ACCORDING TO 
MUPA.  WAR VETERANS ARE BEATING UP SUSPECTED MDC 
SUPPORTERS, OCCUPYING COMMERCIAL FARMS AND THE BIKITA 
MINERALS PLANT, AND FORCING PEOPLE TO SURRENDER THEIR 
NATIONAL IDENTIFICATION CARDS SO THEY CANNOT VOTE IN 
JANUARY.  WOMEN ARE BEING FORCED TO SCRUB PAINTED MDC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  07164  01 OF 02  201308Z 
MARKINGS OFF OF ASPHALT ROADWAYS, MUPA CONTINUED.  FARM 
INVASIONS, WHICH BEGAN IN THE AREA LAST FEBRUARY, ARE 
INTENSIFYING: WAR VETS ARE FORCIBLY REMOVING FARM 
WORKERS FROM COMMERCIAL FARMS AND TRANSPORTING THEM TO 
COMMUNAL FARMS, AT LEAST THREE PROMINENT LOCAL 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND CATTLE RANCHERS HAVE FLED THE 
AREA, AND WORK ON THE FARMS HAS HALTED.  ZANU-PF CADRES 
ARE ALSO THREATENING LOCAL CHIEFS AND SUB-CHIEFS, SAYING 
THAT IF THEY DO NOT MAKE THEIR SUBJECTS VOTE FOR ZANU- 
PF, THE RULING PARTY WILL TAKE AWAY THEIR GOVERNMENT 
SALARIES AND POWERS OF LAND APPORTIONMENT, ACCORDING TO 
THE MDC ADVISOR. 
 
4.  (C) THE MDC, FOR ITS PART, IS BEING FORCED TO HALT 
ITS CAMPAIGN AND REFOCUS ON CIVIC EDUCATION, MUPA 
REPORTED.  THE WAR VETERANS HAVE THREATENED TO ABDUCT 
THE MDC CANDIDATE, BONIFACE PAKAI, AND HE HAS GONE INTO 
HIDING ALONG WITH HIS CAMPAIGN MANAGER.  THE WIVES OF 
OTHER LOCAL MDC OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE 
AREA FOR THEIR OWN SAFETY, MUPA CONTINUED.  SINCE OPEN 
CAMPAIGNING IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE, THE MDC IS REFOCUSING 
ITS EFFORTS ON CIVIC EDUCATION.  THEY ARE COUNSELING 
BIKITA WEST RESIDENTS ON THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO 
VOTE, THE NEED TO REGISTER TO VOTE, AND THE IMPORTANCE 
OF HOLDING ON TO THEIR IDENTIFICATION CARDS.  OPPOSITION 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9193 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  07164  02 OF 02  201309Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   STR-00 
      TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02   DRL-02   G-00 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------ADCFB9  201309Z /38 
P 201308Z DEC 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7887 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 007164 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID RMCCALL, AA/AFR VDERRYCK, AFR/SA 
CPALMA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07164  02 OF 02  201309Z 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/10 
TAGS:  PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY CRANKS UP INTIMIDATION 
FOR NEW BY-ELECTION 
 
SUPPORTERS ARE ALSO TELLING PEOPLE THAT THEY SHOULD NOT 
BE INTIMIDATED BY THE PRESENCE OF ZANU-PF CADRES. 
BELYING HIS CLAIM THAT THE MDC IS TAKING A STRICTLY NON- 
VIOLENT APPROACH, MUPA ADDED THAT ON THE NIGHT OF 
DECEMBER 18, MDC YOUTHS IN BIKITA PAID A CALL ON WAR 
VETERANS LEADER HUNZVI, BEAT HIM UP, AND SENT HIM 
FLEEING. 
 
5.  (C) MUPA WENT ON TO CHARACTERIZE THE BIKITA WEST 
VIOLENCE AS A LARGER CONFLICT BETWEEN THE KARANGA AND 
ZEZURU SUBCLANS OF THE SHONA ETHNIC GROUP.  THE ZEZURU, 
WHO DOMINATE THE GOVERNMENT, ARE BENT ON BREAKING UP A 
PERCEIVED ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE KARANGA OF MASVINGO 
PROVINCE AND THE NDEBELE, WHO PREDOMINATE IN 
MATABELELAND.  MUPA STATED THAT THE INTENSITY OF THE 
CAMPAIGN IN BIKITA WEST IS LINKED TO THE REMOVAL OF 
MASVINGO "SUPREMO" EDDISON ZVOBGO FROM THE ZANU-PF 
POLITBURO.  MASVINGO, AND THE KARANGA OF BIKITA WEST, 
ARE BEING PUNISHED FOR ZVOBGO'S DEFIANCE OF PRESIDENT 
MUGABE.  MUPA CLAIMED THAT ZANU-PF IS NO LONGER A 
NATIONAL PARTY, BUT PURELY AN INSTRUMENT OF THE ZEZURU 
SUBCLAN. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  07164  02 OF 02  201309Z 
6.  (C) COMMENT: ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE SITUATION 
IN BIKITA WEST FIRST-HAND, WE FIND MUPA'S ACCOUNT 
CREDIBLE.  BIKITA IS REMOTE AND NOT SUBJECT TO SCRUTINY 
BY THE INTERNATIONAL MEDIA, DIPLOMATIC CORPS, OR FOREIGN 
NON-GOVERNMENTAL OBSERVERS.  THUS, WE INFER THE RULING 
PARTY FEELS LESS CONSTRAINED IN HOW IT APPLIES THE 
MAILED FIST TO THIS CONSTITUENCY THAT VOTED FOR THE MDC. 
ZANU-PF IS PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS TO PREVENT THE MDC 
FROM MOBILIZING POPULAR SUPPORT AND TO WHITTLE AWAY AT 
ITS SIZABLE MINORITY IN PARLIAMENT.  THE MDC WON BIKITA 
WEST IN THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS BY FEWER THAN 
300 VOTES, AND ZANU-PF APPARENTLY BELIEVES IT CAN 
RECAPTURE THE SEAT WITH OVERWHELMING INTIMIDATION.  IT 
SAW THAT ITS VIOLENT TACTICS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THE 
NOVEMBER MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION, AND IT WILL STICK 
WITH ITS PROVEN STRATEGY.  POPULAR DISSATISFACTION WITH 
ZANU-PF IS SO GREAT THAT THE PARTY SEES NO OTHER WAY TO 
STAY IN POWER.  ANY ZANU-PF LOSSES AT THIS POINT WOULD 
ENCOURAGE MORE ZIMBABWEANS TO VOTE FOR THE OPPOSITION IN 
THE FUTURE.  THE RULING PARTY IS UNWILLING TO TAKE ANY 
CHANCES.  GIVEN THE OPPOSITION'S INABILITY TO 
EFFECTIVELY CAMPAIGN IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE POPULAR 
FEAR OF MORE VIOLENCE AND RETRIBUTION, THE MDC IS 
UNLIKELY TO RETAIN ITS SEAT IN BIKITA WEST. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: WE HAVE HEARD THAT URBAN 
DWELLERS VISITING FAMILY IN BIKITA FOR THE HOLIDAYS MAY 
TRY TO PLAY A ROLE IN LEVELING THE PLAYING FIELD.  THERE 
ARE REPORTS THAT URBAN MDC SUPPORTERS MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE 
OF THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY PERIOD TO VISIT BIKITA AND BOTH 
BOLSTER THE RESOLVE OF BIKITA VOTERS AND "DEAL WITH" THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  07164  02 OF 02  201309Z 
ZANU-PF-DEPLOYED YOUTH AND WAR VETERANS.  IF TRUE, THIS 
COULD WELL RESULT IN EVEN MORE VIOLENCE THAN WAS 
EXPERIENCED IN THE RECENT MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION. 
ALSO, IT COULD SIGNAL A NEW KIND OF TAKE-THE-BULL-BY- 
THE-HORNS "MASS ACTION" BY MDC SUPPORTERS.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>