US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO1300

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 001300 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, DRL 
STATE PASS AID 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #24: POLLS AND PARANOIA 
 
REF: A. (A) SANTO DOMINGO 0957 
     B. (B) SANTO DOMINGO 1174 (NOTAL) 
 
1. (SBU) This is number 24 in our series on the Dominican 
presidential election: 
 
      The Dominican Election: Polls and Paranoia 
 
Many Dominicans fear a stolen presidential election. With 
each succeeding poll that confirms opposition PLD candidate 
Leonel Fernandez's commanding lead over President Mejia 
(PRD/PPH), rumors fly that Mejia will declare an emergency as 
a pretext to postpone the May 16 election.  After the failure 
of the PPH's "law of slogans" scheme to alter the electoral 
rules (Ref A), the latest conspiracy theories suppose that 
Mejia will use the Haiti crisis and its real or imagined 
impact here as grounds for suspending the election and 
illegally extending his own mandate.  We hear this from 
otherwise sober private sector and political leaders.  Other 
commentators dismiss this as poppycock; so do we.  Mejia's 
campaign chief claims that newly inaugurated public works, 
more subsidized food supplies, and a hoped-for economic 
uptick can restore the President's popularity; frankly, that 
seems just as far-fetched. 
 
A Gallup survey of 1200 respondents conducted February 18-22 
closely tracked with an earlier Penn Schoen poll (Ref A). 
Gallup showed Fernandez with 63.1 percent of voter intentions 
and PRSC candidate Eduardo Estrella and President Mejia 
statistically tied with 14.9 and 14.6 percent.  Rejection 
rates were even more dramatic: 73.8 percent would not vote 
for Mejia, vs. 16.7 percent for Fernandez and 14.0 percent 
for Estrella.  In a hypothetical second round between 
Fernandez and Estrella, Gallup says Leonel wins by 64.9 to 
27.5 percent, and if Mejia is the opponent, Leonel would bury 
him 73.8 to 18.3 percent.  In the unreal event that Estrella 
and Mejia faced off in a second round, Estrella would win 
62.9 to 16.0 percent, with 17.6 percent refusing to vote for 
either.  Majorities said they believed "conditions for 
electoral fraud" exist and disagreed with the proposition 
that GODR authorities would carry out clean elections without 
major problems. 
 
Mejia's campaign director Eligio Jaquez, who assumed the post 
about February 18 after resigning as Secretary of State for 
agriculture, told the Ambassador on February 23. "We are in 
second place."  He said negotiations were well advanced with 
PRD challengers Rafael "Fello" Subervi and Vice President 
Milagros Ortiz-Bosch to get them to support Mejia's 
re-election bid.  Jaquez assured us that Subervi would end up 
as Mejia's vice presidential running mate. (President Mejia 
gave the Ambassador a different story on February 24, Ref B.) 
 Jacquez said that Mejia and Subervi together could attract 
many of the 1.7 million registered PRD voters, through direct 
contact in their communities and local TV and radio.  Jaquez 
acknowledged the pollsters' low ratings of Mejia, and 
retorted, "They don't know Hipolito."  He reminded the 
Ambassador that in coming weeks, disbursements of 
international loans would help stabilize the economy and end 
power blackouts, and said the government would send out more 
trucks to distribute subsidized food.  With this and Mejia's 
vigorous campaigning in local communities, "We will go up and 
Fernandez will come down." 
 
Meanwhile, the Dominican rumor mill poured out conspiracy 
theories.  The respected editor of morning tabloid "Diario 
Libre" on February 26 branded as "suspicious" the alarmist 
local press treatment of the political violence in 
neighboring Haiti and the Dominican Armed Forces' leaders 
widely publicized visits to the border.  He insinuated that 
the show was a convenient distraction from domestic economic 
and political problems and might become an excuse for the 
President to postpone the election because of the disturbed 
"climate."  These rumors bubbled up in table talk among 
prominent business executives who attended the Ambassador's 
February 25 luncheon speech at the American Chamber of 
Commerce here.  Econoff heard the same musings from wealthy 
Dominican industrialists at dinner that night. 
 
The Ambassador's wide-ranging talk included for the n-th time 
the U.S. call for clean, fair and transparent elections. 
Reaction has been enthusiastic.  Monsignor Agripino Nunez, 
chair of the watchdog Monitoring Commission, telephoned to 
congratulate the Ambassador and, when he discovered the 
Ambassador was out of the country, he faxed a note of praise, 
particularly stressing his satisfaction that the United 
States was working with the OAS to send international 
election observers. 
 
PRD president Vicente Sanchez Baret, one of Mejia's campaign 
advisors, publicly dismissed the notion that the Haiti unrest 
would affect the elections on this side of the island.  "We 
are a mature democracy, we're going to have elections, and 
whoever wins, wins," he said.  "We don't put much stock in 
polls," he added.  "We're mobilizing the vast PRD membership 
and working toward the vote count on May 16." 
 
Technical directors from the Central Electoral Board (JCE) 
had met on February 24 with prominent USAID-funded NGO 
Participacion Ciudadana to explain in detail measures being 
taken to resolve acknowledged defects in the voting register, 
a main target of the JCE's recent critics. 
 
But the electoral anxieties have not dissipated.  A group of 
evangelical church pastors for human rights has announced a 
prayer campaign, to run from now until May 16, asking divine 
intervention to ensure a free election that reflects the 
popular will, and general acceptance of the outcome. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
3.  (U) This report, our entire election series and other 
current material can be consulted on our SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm  . 
MARSHALL