US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN489

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000489 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN; DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, OEXC, AM 
SUBJECT:  STUDENT PROTEST OVER NEW DRAFT LAW ENTERS 
SECOND WEEK; LARGE DEMONSTRATIONS PLANNED 
 
 
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Nearly one thousand university students in 
Yerevan continued to boycott their classes in protest 
of the proposed "Law on Military Service" currently 
before the National Assembly.  The controversial draft 
law, strongly supported by the Ministry of Defense, 
would end all draft deferments for graduate study.  The 
student protestors claim that the law dilutes the 
quality of Armenian science, and have formed an 
umbrella group "For the Development of Science" to 
coordinate future demonstrations and lobbying efforts. 
The group plans further public demonstrations and a 
march to the National Assembly (NA) in the next five 
days.  End Summary. 
 
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NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO CONSIDER CONSCRIPTION REFORMS 
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3. (U) The GOAM recently submitted "The Law on Military 
Service" to the National Assembly for consideration. 
The proposed law removes draft deferments for students 
in master's programs and the full exclusion provided to 
full-time Ph.D. students.  (Note:  The National 
Statistical Service reports that 149 of the 155 full- 
time Ph.D. students in Armenia are men.  End Note.) 
All Armenian men would be required to serve in the 
army, either when the reach the age 18 or when they 
finish their four-year undergraduate education.  The 
GOAM sees two benefits to this law:  an additional 
1,000 men eligible for military service yearly, and a 
more academically dedicated and diverse applicant pool 
for post-graduate programs.  The National Assembly will 
vote on the draft law in its first reading on March 1 
or 2. 
 
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MALE STUDENTS PROTEST, BOYCOTT 
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4. (SBU) Male undergraduate and graduate students 
strongly oppose the law.  Several Ph.D. students 
created the group "For the Development of Science" to 
coordinate student opposition to the bill.  The group 
staged protests at Yerevan State University February 18- 
20, in which approximately 1000 students participated, 
and have encouraged a boycott of classes since February 
18.  Minister of Defense Serzh Sarksian convened a town- 
hall style meeting for youth that the action group also 
boycotted after discovering that the majority of the 
120 seats had been reserved for the pro-government 
National Youth Council.  Armenian television footage 
showed the meeting as almost "Komsomol-like" with the 
youth looking approvingly on as Sarksian lectured about 
civic virtues. 
 
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FOR THE SAKE OF SCIENCE! 
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5. (SBU) The protestors claim that the law will degrade 
the quality of Armenian science.  In a press conference 
held on February 18, leaders of "For the Development of 
Science" stated that they were not seeking to avoid 
their own military service, rather preserve the 
integrity of the Armenian scientific field.  The 
students argue that if they are not allowed to directly 
follow their undergraduate studies with a master's or 
Ph.D. program, they may lose interest in academics and 
never return to school.  They further contend that 
dedicated students may flee the country in a "brain- 
drain" to pursue studies elsewhere and never return to 
Armenia if the law is passed. 
 
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MAYOR'S OFFICE DENIES PERMITS FOR FUTURE RALLIES 
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6. (SBU) "For the Development of Science" held a 
meeting that filled a local movie theater February 25. 
With an audience that was roughly 90 percent male, 
students, professors, a former army colonel, and one 
parliamentarian spoke against the law, which one 
professor described as "a genocide campaign against 
science."  Form letters to National Assembly members 
were awaiting rally participants' signatures.  Erik 
Grigoryan, a Yerevan State University undergraduate 
student who has organized many of the campaign's 
events, told us that the group plans to flood the 
National Assembly with such letters.  The students 
announced that two future rallies were also planned for 
February 28 and March 1.  On March 1, the students plan 
to march through the city to the parliament building to 
stage the demonstration.  Grigoryan said that while the 
Mayor's Office had denied permits to stage the 
demonstrations, they would not be canceled.  He 
recognized that anyone participating could be 
administratively detained for demonstrating without a 
permit. 
 
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STUDENTS USE MEDIA, WEB TO SPREAD MESSAGE 
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7. (SBU) In its second week, "For the Development of 
Science" has developed an impressive level of 
sophistication in their efforts.  The students are 
issuing daily press releases (in Armenian, Russian, and 
English) to all media outlets, providing information on 
the day's developments and announcing future events. 
The group also has a website (http://all- 
students.nm.ru), where they have posted all the press 
releases, a calendar of activities, and photos of 
demonstrations.  As shown by the recent rally, their 
techniques have been effective in turning out 
relatively large numbers of demonstrators at their 
scheduled events. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8. (SBU) The "Law on Military Service" has aroused 
student passion like no other recent issue, including 
the 2003 elections.  Though it is questionable that the 
students really seek to preserve "scientific progress" 
rather than their own draft deferments, they have 
quickly developed a campaign with a message backed by 
not-insignificant momentum.  The students' growing 
number of supporters and effective use of the media to 
promote their message sharply contrasts with the 
parliamentary opposition's largely failed efforts to 
organize large anti-government protests.  Though the 
success of the students' campaign remains to be seen, 
their efforts have managed to, at least for the moment, 
mobilize their previously apolitical and passive peers. 
ORDWAY