US embassy cable - 04MANAMA252

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000252 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPT FOR DS/IPA/ITA AND DS/IP/NEA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: X6 
TAGS: ASEC, PTER 
SUBJECT: SECURITY ENVIRONMENT PROFILE QUESTIONNAIRE (SEPQ) 
 
REF: SECSTATE 28688 
 
Classified By: R.FORD, CHARGE FOR REASONS 1.4 (b, c and d) 
 
1. (S/NF) Manama reports no significant changes from the 
previous SEPQ of September 10, 2003. The threat environment 
for Bahrain and the region remains a significant concern for 
the EAC. The movement of terrorists and equipment from Saudi 
Arabia into Bahrain across the causeway poses the greatest 
threat to the Embassy, NAVCENT and Bahrain. 
 
The following answers are keyed to reftel: 
 
POLITICAL VIOLENCE 
 
1. (SBU) DEMONSTRATIONS 
 
A. Yes 
B. Yes 
C. Yes 
D. 1,000-2,500 
E. Anti-American demonstrations are usually triggered by US 
Military Action or US Foreign Policy in the Arab world. 
F. In the last 12 months, demonstrations have, at times, 
become violent.  Most notably during the first four days of 
Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) when demonstrations at the U.S. 
Embassy became violent.  The first day of demonstrations saw 
the demonstrators detonate seven gas cylinders 300 meters 
from the Embassy.  Rock throwing and physical assault against 
police officers were observed by Embassy officers. Police 
fired 60 plus tear gas canisters in an attempt to disperse 
the crowd.  The demonstrators did leave the area after four 
hours of assaults against police positions that were 
protecting the Embassy. 
G. No 
H. No, not in the last 12 months. 
I. Yes. There have been anti-government demonstrations in the 
last twelve months concerning democratic reform and 
unemployment issues. 
J. No 
K. 500-4,000 
L. Peaceful for the most part. Small segments of teenagers 
within the larger group violently engage passersby and police. 
M. No 
 
2. (C) MACRO CONFLICT CONDITIONS 
 
A. There are no current interstate or intrastate conflicts in 
Bahrain.  However, Shi'a dissatisfaction remains an area of 
concern and deeply motivated by the government's (Sunni) 
inability to deliver on political reform promises.  The 
Embassy is closely monitoring Bahrain's political reforms and 
the populations' reactions. 
B. Primarily in Manama and northern Bahrain. 
C. Yes 
D. Yes.  Both the Sunni and Shi'a sects have demonstrated 
anti-Americanism in the past.  Anti-Americanism is not 
endemic in Bahrain and is usually demonstrated in response to 
some USG foreign policy position or military action.  For 
example, during OIF, four anti-American protests took place 
outside the walls of the Embassy. 
 
 
3. (C) HOST COUNTRY CAPABILITIES 
 
A. Yes.  Law enforcement agencies are professional, 
reasonably well trained and responsive. 
B. Yes.  Post is in the second year of a three year ATA 
training program with the Ministry of Interior and National 
Security Agency.  So far, training provided by ATA and DOD 
has been very well received and noticeably increased the 
skill level of the Bahrain police, security agency and 
military. 
C. No 
D. Yes 
E. Yes 
F. Yes.  The Bahrain National Security Agency (BNSA) has made 
several significant arrests in the last twelve months.  In 
February 2003 the BNSA arrested five Bahraini men suspected 
of planning a terrorist attack against westerners.  Two were 
convicted of possessing illegal firearms and sentenced to 
jail, but the other three were released because of lack of 
evidence to support a prosecution.  Bahrain's lack of a 
conspiracy law prevents the Government from arresting, trying 
and convicting terrorists before they can put plans into 
action.  The BNSA arrested an Iraqi intelligence agent in 
March 2003 after he set off a small explosive device near the 
US Naval Support Activity in Bahrain.  The security services 
have also detained/arrested 50 other individuals known to 
have ties to Al-Qaida. 
G. Yes 
H. Very good 
I. Average 
J. Average 
 
INDIGENOUS TERRORISM 
 
4. (C) ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORIST GROUPS 
 
A. Yes 
B. 3 Groups.  Hizballah, Al-Qaida and The Islamic Front for 
the Liberation of Bahrain. 
C. No 
D. N/A 
E. No 
F. No 
G. Country-Wide 
H. N/A 
 
5. (C) OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS 
 
A. No 
B. N/A 
C. No 
D. N/A 
E. N/A 
 
TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM 
 
6. (S/NF) TRANSNATIONAL TERRORIST INDICATORS 
 
A. Yes.  Hizballah and Al-Qaida have a known presence in 
country. 
B. The cells have operational, financial and support presence 
in Bahrain. Hizballah flags fly at every anti-US 
demonstration. 
C. No 
D. No 
E. Yes.  Although Bahrain is well known as a moderate 
country, it is nonetheless an Islamic country.  Hizballah, 
Al-Qaida and other Islamic terrorist groups proclaiming 
resistance to the United States' presence in the region have 
generated some sympathies.  This does not however, 
necessarily translate into a call to arms. 
F. The EAC is aware of this presence and is particularly 
concerned with the Iranians.  There has been IRGC 
surveillance of US military facilities in the past, but none 
reported recently.  The EAC is also aware and concerned about 
a Chinese trade office located 30 meters from the Embassy 
parking lot.  There is no information linking these hostile 
intelligence services to potential anti-American terrorist 
acts. 
G. Although weapons are illegal in Bahrain, the EAC is 
concerned about past and present indicators of weapons 
availability.  In February 2003, five militants who were 
known to be targeting Americans were arrested with four 
AK-47/AK-74 rifles and over 1000 rounds of ammunition. 
Recently in Saudi Arabia, there have been numerous seizures 
of weapons by the authorities.  In one instance, combined 
with a Saudi government weapons seizure was the arrest of two 
Bahraini men whose intentions are still unknown.  This area 
is of special concern to the EAC as Bahrain is a mere 24 
kilometers from Saudi Arabia and at best 10% of the 5,000 
vehicles which enter Bahrain daily from Saudi Arabia are 
searched. 
FORD