US embassy cable - 04RANGOON233

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000233 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PINS, BM, NLD, Ethnics 
SUBJECT: NLD IN THE PROVINCES: RARIN' TO GO 
 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: The Department's Burma Desk Officer joined 
Poloff and PolFSN on an early February three-day 500-mile 
road trip from Rangoon to Mon and Karen States, which lie on 
Burma's southeastern border with Thailand.  NLD members we 
met in Mon and Karen States seemed fairly well organized and 
mentally in the game.  Representatives remained in contact 
with national leaders, each other and local members, even 
with their offices shuttered.  All seemed ready, and even 
eager, for continued pursuit of democracy as soon as they are 
given the opportunity to express their views freely and to 
organize openly. END SUMMARY. 
 
MON STATE NLD: STILL IN THE WILDERNESS 
 
2.  (C) Moulmein NLD MP-elect and Mon State NLD Vice Chair 
Naing Thaung Nyo recounted that the NLD won 16 out of 20 
seats in the state in 1990.  Of those 16 MPs, five have 
resigned and one has gone into exile to join the NLD-LA. 
Their NLD offices were closed after May 30 and members are 
unable to move around freely due to tight security controls. 
Like the NLD Central Executive Committee (CEC) in Rangoon, 
they are trying to mobilize in their own way and are using 
the home of the provincial Chairman as their party office. 
The Mon State NLD sent representatives to meet with the five 
free NLD CEC leaders a month after their release from house 
arrest.  They remain in communication with their colleagues 
in Rangoon and follow their directives. 
 
ANY KNU CEASE-FIRE IMPACT? 
 
3.  (C) The Vice Chairman stated that the SPDC-KNU cease-fire 
will have "no effect" on the NLD.  There is no political gain 
for the SPDC because their goals in the cease-fire are too 
divergent from the KNU's.  He then tempered his remarks, 
saying the participation of the KNU in a national convention 
might lead to pressure on the NLD to join. 
 
4.  (C) In the Vice Chairman's opinion, the SPDC is now 
unable to maneuver politically due to economic and social 
constraints, and is using the road map as the way to escape 
from this situation.  Asked if the NLD in Mon State has 
discussed the PM's road map, the Vice Chairman replied, 
officially "there is no discussion of the road map within the 
Mon State NLD membership, the topic is not under 
consideration."  He then offered that "the heart of the road 
map is undemocratic, so it can't work for the ethnics nor for 
the NLD."  He defined this thought further by saying the road 
map would be acceptable and would be fine for a political 
transition, except for the part about the military taking the 
leadership role in Burmese politics. 
 
NO NLD POLITICAL PRISONERS? 
 
5.  (C) No NLD members in Mon State were arrested after the 
May 30 Depeyin attack.  Six local NLD youth arrested in 1997 
were recently released, leaving about 40 other non-NLD 
political prisoners in the Moulmein prison.  Each month, the 
Mon State NLD Humanitarian Assistance Committees visits them 
to provide food and clothing. 
 
KAREN STATE NLD HOLDING STEADY 
 
6.  (C) Emboffs also visited Daw Nant Khin Htwe Myint, Vice 
Chairman of the Karen State NLD and MP-elect from Pa-an 
Township, capital of Karen State.  She reported that there 
were 2,000 NLD members in Pa-an, and another 5,000 in the 
seven Townships around Karen State, with many more inactive 
or "sleeping" members.  She stated that May 30 had not 
brought a change in the political, economic, or social 
situation in Karen State.  Prior to May 30, freedoms had been 
thoroughly oppressed, and there hadn't been an open NLD 
office.  Pa-an had been scheduled for a visit by ASSK to 
reopen the NLD office there.  The MP-elect uses her house as 
the NLD gathering point in Pa-an.  She has already met with 
the NLD CEC in Rangoon to discuss the road map and finds it 
and the National Convention unacceptable. 
 
KNU CEASE-FIRE?: TOO EARLY TO TELL 
 
7.  (C) Regarding the impact of the KNU cease-fire, Daw Nant 
Khin Htwe Myint said "it is too early to say."  The KNU 
hadn't discussed the cease-fire with the NLD, but the 
Vice-Chair noted that the mentality and objectives of the KNU 
and NLD are the same, and pointed out that ASSK had always 
publicly supported ethnic group declarations or statements. 
The MP-elects's brother, Saw Soe Htut, is a KNU CEC member. 
 
8.  (C) Regarding political prisoners, in Karen State, there 
are no NLD members currently in detention.  However, there 
are still 20 students in jail convicted under law 17(I) for 
alleged connection with illegal organizations -- particularly 
the KNU. 
 
NLD LIFE IN A SMALL TOWN 
 
9.  (C) We visited a small NLD office in Thaton Township, 
halfway between Rangoon and Moulmein.  Daw San Myint, the 
Vice Chair, told us that there were 19 NLD organizers and 
3,000-4,000 NLD members in the township.  However, the 
organization and recruiting were static for the time being. 
The last party meeting was held January 23 at her house, the 
regular office having been shuttered -- though the local NLD 
still pays the 9,000 kyat ($10 USD) monthly rent for the 
office space.  The local representatives of the military 
junta periodically visit her house to check on recent NLD 
activity. 
 
REGIME SECURITY GOONS INTERFERE 
 
10.  (C) The security controls on the NLD were very evident 
during our visit, including the Office of the Chief of 
Military Intelligence (OCMI) visiting our hotel twice in 
Moulmein demanding the staff question us on our purpose for 
the visit.  Our first attempt to visit the NLD Chairman in 
Moulmein was spoiled after OCMI learned of our presence in 
the city and subsequently placed security at the entrance of 
the Chairman's house.  He was only able to meet with us by 
setting up an early morning meeting in a restaurant the next 
day.  In Pa-an, the Vice-Chairman told us that OCMI would 
visit her house following our visit to question her on the 
reason we had come. 
 
11.  (C) COMMENT: Considering the post-May 30 pressure the 
NLD has been under, the NLD members appeared to be very 
upbeat and ready for the next opportunity to bring their 
fight into the open.  The heavy presence of OCMI could be 
felt in Moulmein, but surprisingly, Pa'an felt a little less 
restricted.  In the small town of Thaton, the only security 
pressure reportedly came from the chatty local Peace and 
Development Council Chairman, which could explain why Thaton 
NLD members can be so vocal in their desire for change.  END 
COMMENT. 
Martinez