US embassy cable - 04RANGOON232

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000232 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; CINPAC FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BM, NLD, ASSK 
SUBJECT: REGIME BLOCKS NLD LEADERS FROM VISITING ASSK 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 206 
     B. RANGOON 205 
     C. RANGOON 199 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The five free members of the NLD's Central 
Executive Committee (CEC) attempted on February 17 to visit 
Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) at her Rangoon residence, where she 
is under house arrest, but were rebuffed by the Burmese 
regime.  The "uncles" have in recent weeks taken a more 
visible and proactive role in leading party activities, 
including a quiet march on Union Day, meetings with 
diplomats, and correspondence with the regime that demands 
the release of NLD leaders and space to operate as a 
political party.  The regime responded with veiled threats 
directed at the uncles and cut their phone lines, but has 
otherwise turned a blind eye to their activities.  As for the 
regime's road map and a renewed National Convention, the CEC 
says "been there, done that" but refuses to take a public 
stand until ASSK and their other colleagues are released. 
End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) We spoke on February 19 with NLD Central Executive 
Committee member U Nyunt Wei, who gave us detailed background 
regarding an unsuccessful attempt on February 17 by the five 
released members of the NLD CEC to visit ASSK, who remains 
under house arrest at her University Avenue residence in 
Rangoon.  The CEC has been increasingly visible in recent 
weeks, including a successful effort at leading a quiet 
procession of party members and supporters through a portion 
of central Rangoon on Union Day (ref A).  (Note:  Of the 
nine-member CEC, five were freed from house arrest in 
November, while the most senior four members, including ASSK, 
remain in detention.  End note.) 
 
It's In the Mail 
---------------- 
 
3. (C) According to U Nyunt Wei, the NLD CEC had in recent 
months written three consecutive letters to SPDC Chairman 
Senior General Than Shwe and PM General Khin Nyunt.  The 
first two letters appealed for the release of ASSK and other 
NLD leaders detained without charges and requested an 
opportunity to visit ASSK at her home.  Their third and most 
recent letter, delivered in early February, specified to the 
SPDC leaders that the NLD CEC wanted to speak with ASSK about 
top-level party matters.  The NLD CEC has received no 
response to any of their letters. 
 
4. (C) Parallel to their latest letter, the NLD "uncles" told 
an SPDC intermediary that they planned to make a unilateral 
visit to ASSK's residence in the absence of a timely response 
to their request.  The intermediary, a Burmese Army major, 
pleaded with the uncles not to proceed and promised he would 
report their concerns to his chain of command.  However, U 
Nyunt Wei said, the uncles replied that "we won't wait 
indefinitely." 
 
University Avenue Breakdown 
--------------------------- 
 
5. (C) On the morning of February 17, having received no 
response from the SPDC, the five elderly uncles flagged down 
two taxicabs and headed for University Avenue.  U Nyunt Wei 
recounted with delight that the two cabbies, recognizing the 
uncles and their famous destination, refused to accept cab 
fare.  Arriving at ASSK's heavily guarded compound at around 
11:00 a.m., the uncles were seated across the street while 
military intelligence (MI) agents fetched a more senior-level 
interlocutor.  The regime officer who appeared apologized to 
the uncles, but said that no visitors were allowed to enter 
ASSK's compound.  "And besides," the major said, "if ASSK 
wants to see you, she will have to make an official request." 
 The uncles suggested that the army major consult with ASSK 
directly on her wishes and the hapless officer demurred, 
responding "I don't have permission myself to enter the 
compound." 
 
6. (C) U Nyunt Wei said the uncles exchanged friendly banter 
for about an hour with their regime interlocutors.  The 
senior regime officer on the scene claimed that the SPDC was 
undertaking efforts to "improve the political situation" and 
cited as an example the recent transfer from prison to house 
arrest of NLD Vice Chairman U Tin Oo (ref B).  In what the 
uncles interpreted as a threat to keep quiet, the major 
exhorted the NLD CEC not to create "untoward incidents which 
will inevitably cause problems and force the SPDC to blame 
the NLD leadership."  Following what U Nyunt Wei described as 
a "light standoff," MI agents escorted the uncles home in 
government vehicles. 
 
A Train to Nowhere 
------------------ 
 
7. (C) U Nyunt Wei took advantage of our meeting to reiterate 
the CEC's position on the regime's road map for democracy. 
"We will not take a public stand," he said, "unless all nine 
members of our Central Committee can meet together freely to 
discuss our views."  We inquired about the CEC's ability to 
get input from ASSK on the road map and other party issues 
while she is under house arrest.  U Nyunt Wei smiled and 
said, "We have no official communications with her," 
intimating that the uncles make use of a back channel to 
communicate with ASSK. 
 
8. (C) With regard to the December Thai-hosted meeting on 
Burma, U Nyunt Wei said that the CEC had written to all of 
the Bangkok participants to exchange views.  To date, the 
uncles have not heard a single word back from China, India, 
or any of the ASEAN participants.  U Nyunt Wei said he was 
particularly galled at not hearing from the Indians, the 
"so-called largest democracy in the world."  He added, 
however, that the CEC greatly appreciates the ongoing support 
and contact from the U.S. and the U.K. missions.  "Without 
you, we have no one," he said. 
 
9. (C) However, Ambassadors from Australia, Italy, France, 
and Germany and the Japanese political counselor have all 
responded to the NLD appeal and met with the released CEC 
members in recent weeks.  U Nyunt Wei said that while the NLD 
leaders appreciated the opportunity to hear first-hand about 
the Bangkok meeting, the diplomats all had a similar message 
which warned the NLD that "the train is leaving, and you need 
to get on board (with the road map process)."  The NLD 
leaders responded, "we've been on that train and it's not 
going anywhere worthwhile." 
 
10. (C) U Nyunt Wei said that it was impossible to envision 
participating in a National Convention without the release of 
ASSK and other NLD leaders and the re-opening of NLD offices. 
 He concluded that it would be "foolish" for the NLD to 
repeat the failed experience of the 1993 Convention which was 
convened under similar circumstances and failed miserably. 
"We got off that train for a good reason," he said. 
 
Comment:  Taking Charge 
----------------------- 
 
11. (C) The released NLD CEC members are clearly pushing the 
envelope with the SPDC.  While they may have some limited 
contact with ASSK, we suspect the main motivating factor in 
pursuing more visible tactics may be to appease the youth 
wing of the NLD, which by all accounts is frustrated with the 
stalemate and growing restless.  Also, ASSK has expressed in 
the past her own desire to see the CEC take a more proactive 
role in leading the party when she is incarcerated or 
otherwise isolated by the SPDC.  The regime has responded to 
the feisty uncles by cutting the phone lines of several CEC 
members and restricting the others to outgoing calls only 
(which prohibits the uncles from receiving inquiries from 
international journalists).  However, overall SPDC 
intimidation since their late 2003 release has been, by 
regime standards, fairly limited.  End Comment. 
Martinez