US embassy cable - 04ROME624

UNCLAS ROME 000624 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINR, PREL, PGOV, IT, EUN, ITALIAN POLITICS 
SUBJECT:  PM BERLUSCONI SAYS HE IS A CANDIDATE FOR THE 
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 
 
 
1.  DURING A PRESS CONFERENCE FEBRUARY 17, ITALIAN PM 
BERLUSCONI SAID HE WOULD BE A CANDIDATE IN THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENTARY (EP) ELECTIONS IN JUNE, BUT THAT, WIN OR 
LOSE, HE WOULD REMAIN IN HIS POSITION AS PRIME MINISTER. 
    ITALY HAS NO LAW THAT PREVENTS A MEMBER OF GOVERNMENT 
FROM RUNNING FOR AN EP SEAT, BUT THE EU COUNCIL'S 1976 
ACT ON ELECTIONS TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT (ADOPTED BY 
ITALY IN 1977) DECREES THAT THE OFFICE OF MEMBER OF THE 
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT IS INCOMPATIBLE WITH THE OFFICE OF 
MEMBER OF A NATIONAL GOVERNMENT. 
 
2.  IF ELECTED, BERLUSCONI WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO CHOOSE 
BETWEEN THE EP AND HIS NATIONAL GOVERNMENT POSITION.  IT 
COMES AS NO SURPRISE THAT BERLUSCONI SAID HE WILL OPT TO 
REMAIN AS ITALY'S PM.  BECAUSE ITALY'S EP ELECTORAL LAW 
IS BASED ON PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION, HE WOULD THEN BE 
REPLACED IN THE EP BY THE PERSON ON HIS PARTY TICKET WHO 
RECEIVED THE MOST VOTES AMONG THOSE WHO WERE NOT ELECTED. 
BERLUSCONI'S STRATEGY FOR BECOMING A CANDIDATE IS SIMPLE 
-- TO WIN MORE VOTES FOR HIS PARTY, FORZA ITALIA (FI). 
IN THAT VEIN, IT SHOULD BE VIEWED IN THE CONTEXT OF EU 
COMMISSION PRESIDENT PRODI'S MUCH-PUBLICIZED DECISION TO 
"LEAD" THE ITALIAN CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION'S TICKET FOR 
THE EP ELECTIONS WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY SERVING OUT HIS 
TERM ON THE COMMISSION.  (COMMENT: BERLUSCONI ISN'T THE 
ONLY ITALIAN POLITICIAN WITH A FLEXIBLE INTERPRETATION OF 
WHAT CONSTITUTES A 'CONFLICT OF INTEREST.') 
 
3.  ITALY'S ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 12-13, 
PRIMARILY FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, BUT ALSO FOR 
SEVERAL LOCAL ADMINISTRATIVE POSITIONS.  THE GOI IS IN 
THE PROCESS OF AMENDING ITS ELECTORAL LEGISLATION TO 
CONFORM WITH EU REQUIREMENT AND TO ACCOMMODATE EU 
ENLARGEMENT IN MAY, WHEN ITALY'S EP SEATS WILL DROP TO 78 
FROM 87.  THE CURRENT LAW IS BASED ON PROPORTIONAL 
    REPRESENTATION, WITH ITALY DIVIDED INTO FIVE 
CONSTITUENCIES -- NORTH-WEST (23 SEATS), NORTH-EAST (16 
SEATS), CENTER (17 SEATS), SOUTH (21 SEATS), AND THE 
ISLANDS (10 SEATS).  SEPTEL WILL ANALYZE THE STRATEGY AND 
OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTER-RIGHT GOVERNING COALITION AND THE 
CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION IN THE RUN-UP TO THESE ELECTIONS. 
 
SKODON 
 
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 2004ROME00624 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED