US embassy cable - 04CARACAS559

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 000559 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: BRAIN TRUST PREVIEWS PRIMARY PLANS 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES S. SHAPIRO, FOR REASONS 1.4 9(b) AND 
(d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) On 07 February, the Ambassador met with a group of 
opposition "wise-men" who made a presentation on a plan for a 
unified candidate to run for president in elections following 
an eventual recall referendum. The group claimed that the 
plan had possible widespread support among leaders of the 
opposition, ranging from civic groups and the Catholic 
Church, to the main political parties and potential 
candidates. The centerpiece of the presentation was a plan 
for a two-stage primary to choose the candidate. The NGO 
SUMATE would organize the primary. The exact timing of each 
aspect of the primary process had been extensively debated, 
and was not finally decided in all its points. The main 
conclusion was that the primaries would be announced around 
the time the referendum was officially approved by the CNE, 
and that the final phase would take place after the 
referendum. END SUMMARY 
 
2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by EmbOff notetaker, met 
with Carmelo Lauria (ex-Minister, AD), Gustavo Tarre Briceno 
(ex-Deputy, COPEI), Carlos Blanco (columnist for El 
Universal, ex-Minister, AD), Joaquin Marta Sosa (author, 
ex-head of VTV), Fernando Martinez Mottola (ex-Minister, 
ex-head of CANTV), and Maria Corina Machado (SUMATE). The 
group is composed of retired politicians, columnists, and 
members of the private sector who have met weekly for 10 
years to discuss politics. The group has been consulting with 
SUMATE over proposals for selecting a single opposition 
candidate. 
 
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Why Primaries? 
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3. (C) Martinez made a presentation on the debate over the 
best system to choose a unified opposition candidate. He and 
several of those present were part of a larger group that has 
been circulating among the opposition, trying to arrive at a 
consensus on the best way to resolve several issues. They 
presented an impressive list of the groups they have spoken 
to, and who they claim have agreed to the plan. 
 
4. (C) The group starts from the premise that support for the 
recall of Chavez is much stronger than that of the 
opposition's candidates against Chavez. So while the 
referendum will be won if it is allowed, the election could 
still be lost, especially since Chavez himself is much more 
popular than any single opposition leader. Martinez stressed 
the importance of the opposition developing a positive 
message for the future to attract those anti-Chavistas who do 
not support any of the opposition candidates (a figure the 
presentation put at 13%), and the 10% swing vote between the 
opposition and Chavez. 
 
5. (C) According to Martinez, a primary is the only option 
that enjoys widespread support, and seems likely to give the 
eventual winner legitimacy beyond hard-core anti-Chavistas. 
It is also seen as the best way to force the potential 
candidates to develop a positive forward-looking campaign, to 
counter Chavez' relatively clear political message. To this 
end, Martinez proposed a tightly structured debate for the 
candidates, forcing them to address the issues of the day, 
and not just attack one another. The main difficulty of a 
primary is its organization within the tight schedule 
provided by the Constitution, which stipulates 30 days 
between the referendum, and the ensuing presidential 
elections. Machado was confident that SUMATE could organize 
and execute the primary. 
 
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Unresolved Issues 
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6. (C) Martinez' presentation stressed six main issues that 
 
still need to be resolved. 
 
Announcement of the primaries: A consensus was emerging that 
the announcement of the primary could come as soon as the CNE 
declared a referendum. 
 
Before or after the referendum? While their are good 
arguments on both sides, the thinking now is to launch the 
two-stage primary after the referendum, though organization 
and campaigning might begin before-hand. 
 
CNE intervention: The constitution dictates that the CNE 
oversee elections of party officials, which could impede a 
possible primary. Machado believes there is a legal argument 
to avoid CNE involvement, as an opposition candidate is not a 
party official. 
 
Candidate eligibility: Candidates would be required to 
present signatures proposing them for the ballot. The group 
tended toward a low threshold (10,000 signatures) in order to 
keep most potential candidates inside the process. 
 
One round or two? Two rounds would produce a unified 
candidate with a majority backing, while a single round among 
all candidates could produce a winner by a slim margin. Only 
if one candidate got 40% or more of the vote, and 10% more 
than the next person, would the second round be suspended. 
The members of the G5 have reportedly accepted the plan, as 
have Celia Sosa, Manuel Cova, Americo Martin, and Enrique 
Tejera Paris. Salas Romer has agreed, but wants a primary 
with no runoff. Only Teodoro Petkoff has rejected the plan. 
 
Who can vote? Should the primary depend on the electoral 
registry or those who signed the "Reafirmazo"? The group 
leaned toward a broader and inclusive process. 
 
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Can it work? 
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10. (C) Blanco insisted repeatedly that no one would 
participate in the process unless they were assured that the 
winner would not only be the sole candidate, but would have 
the full organizational support of all the other parties. 
Martinez felt that Mendoza would probably withdraw to run in 
2006 if he saw he could not win the primary. The group noted 
that Henrique Salas Romer was supporting the plan because it 
has not emanated from the CD, which Salas views as Mendoza's 
campaign committee . 
 
11. (C) Joaquin Marta Sosa is working on a consensus campaign 
platform and a more basic plan of governability for the 
opposition. But irreducible differences would need to be 
solved by allowing the candidates to run in the primary on 
those issues where they differ. The main issue is whether the 
candidates will run again in 2006 if they win (Henrique Salas 
Romer), serve only until 2006 (Enrique Mendoza), or serve 
only as an interim leader (Manuel Cova). 
 
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COMMENT 
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12. (C) The opposition has got a number of issues it must 
deal with simultaneously: getting the CNE to set a date for a 
referendum, winning the referendum, settling on a single 
opposition candidate for president, developing a unified 
campaign organization and platform, and winning the election 
are the near and medium-term tasks. This proposal helps 
resolve the candidate and platform issues, while the 
coordinadora focuses on the CNE. The group was confident 
their proposal would be accepted by all the interested 
groups. The key to its ability to achieve this feat seems to 
have been a preference for negotiation and compromise over 
demands and impositions. Getting Salas to agree has been the 
most impressive accomplishment so far. If it is as close to 
acceptance by all candidates as they claim, this group will 
have provided a tremendous service to the opposition. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA00559 - CONFIDENTIAL