US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO957

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 000957 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #22: LEONEL CONFIDENT, HIPOLITO 
DIGS IN 
 
REF: SANTO DOMINGO 901 
 
1. (SBU) This is number 22 in our Presidential election 
series. 
 
LEONEL CONFIDENT, HIPOLITO DIGS IN 
 
Dominican President Hipolito Mejia got bad news last week for 
his re-election bid.  It should have been a good week, with 
the IMF approval of a new standby, a government  agreement 
with the electricity sector promising an end to blackouts, 
and the heartening drop in the exchange rate from 55 pesos to 
48 to the dollar.  But the PRD's proposal to revise the 
electoral law appeared to die in the House of Representatives 
after forceful objections from the Central Elections Board 
(JCE). More damaging was the February 12 publication by U.S. 
political consultants Penn Schoen of a national survey from 
January showing Mejia in third place with 13 percent.  Mejia 
and his advisers waved away the results and responded with 
"come-and-get-it" ads:  "We'll see in May!"  (Further poll 
numbers below.) 
 
PLD candidate Leonel Fernandez coasted onward with 65 percent 
in the Penn Schoen poll.  He visited the New York Dominican 
community again, between two weekends of domestic PLD 
campaigning.  President Mejia continued to cut ribbons on 
public works to boost his ratings. PRSC candidate Eduardo 
Estrella led a caravan through the neighborhoods of Santo 
Domingo on Valentine's Day, through waving banners of PRSC 
red. 
 
The JCE officially accepted candidacy filings of Estrella, 
Fernandez, and Mejia as the major party candidates, 
sidelining dissident PRD and PRSC contenders. 
 
"Slogans law" Fades Away 
 
The unpopular bill to change the election law is moribund, 
but not necessarily dead.  The Senate passed the bill on 
second reading, early in the week. On Wednesday the nine 
judges of the JCE delivered a unanimous report opposing 
changes in law and procedures only 90 days before the 
elections.  The American Chamber of Commerce published its 
formal opposition to the draft law, adding its voice to that 
of essentially all other responsible civil society 
organizations.  The Coalition for Transparency and 
Institutionalism (a band of prominent business and civic 
organizations) had earlier published a legal brief prepared 
for the Supreme Court arguing that the bill would be 
unconstitutional. 
 
House of Representatives Speaker Alfredo Pacheco (PRD) 
reiterated to us February 11 his personal opposition to the 
measure. After failing to assemble a quorum that day and 
again on February 12 for the vote demanded by Mejia's 
PRD/PPH, Pacheco removed it from the agenda.  About 
two-thirds of the 150 deputies boycotted the session, 
including some PPH members.  There was no sign of any "man 
with a briefcase," although some of our contacts had been 
spinning tales of payoffs expected to reach 2 million pesos 
(USD 40,000) per legislator.  The special session lapsed on 
February 12. 
 
Opposition contacts remained concerned that the President's 
supporters might reintroduce the bill, either in reconvened 
special session or in regular session after reconvening on 
February 27.  With glee reminiscent of late night campfire 
tales, some mid-level PLD supporters evoked for us over 
dinner the spectres of fraudulent vote counts, suspension of 
the elections because of impossible logistics, and a mythic 
post-Hipolito interim presidency chosen by the PRD majority 
in Congress. "We need the guarantee of international 
observers from the United States and other countries!" 
 
The Church 
 
Cardinal Nicolas Lopez Rodriguez remains an outspoken critic 
of Mejia.  The bishops' letter for the end of 2003 made an 
oblique suggestion that Mejia reconsider his effort to win 
re-election.  On February 5 when discussing electricity 
sector problems the Cardinal commented to journalists, "The 
Government has heard from us many times what it should do. 
Eventually one gets tired of repeating it to them."  Lopez 
Rodriguez was equally angry during a February 15 television 
interview, complaining that "miserable, bought journalists" 
("chupatintas") were constantly attacking him for conveying 
the people's woes.  One of our contacts asserts that in late 
January after discussions with the Cardinal and his advisor 
Fr. Arnaiez, the contact conveyed to the President a 
suggestion that Mejia resign and leave the administration in 
the hands of Milagros Ortiz-Bosch while he campaigns.  This 
would quiet fears of government manipulation of electoral 
mechanisms.  Our contact expected nothing to come of that 
idea, and not surprisingly, nothing has. 
 
The Poll 
 
Penn Schoen's poll was financed by "a group of businessmen" 
(not further identified, but certainly friendly to the PLD, 
for PLD notable Bernardo Vega brought us details on February 
13).  It gave Fernandez 65 percent of voter preferences, 7 
points more than last September, and Mejia only 13 percent, 
down 7.  Estrella advanced from 14 to 16 percent and moved up 
from third to second place.  Six percent of voters remained 
undecided.  In pollster's hypothetical scenarios, if 
Fernandez does not win the first round outright, he will beat 
Estrella in a second round by 67 to 23 percent, with 9 
percent undecided.  A second round between Fernandez and 
Mejia would produce a 73-16 landslide for Leonel, with 10 
percent undecided.  Nearly half of voters who supported the 
PRD or PRSC in the 2000 election said they would now vote for 
Fernandez, enabling him to gather in much of his rivals' 
traditional constituencies.  (A caveat: some of our contacts 
do not believe that party allegiances will fail so readily, 
and they see Mejia's base as closer to 30 percent.) 
 
Penn Schoen found the ruling PRD weak across the board. 
Respondents labeling Mejia's performance as "unfavorable" 
were 86 percent; Vice President Milagros Ortiz-Bosch got that 
label 78 percent of the time and PRD rival Rafael "Fello" 
Subervi was "unfavorable" for 79 percent. Estrella's negative 
rating was 53 percent and Fernandez's only 23. 
 
The roots of Mejia's unpopularity are evident in the numbers. 
 Some 75 percent of poll respondents identified the country's 
main problem as rising consumer prices, fuel prices, exchange 
rates or electrical energy.  Only 4 percent checked 
corruption as the foremost issue (suggesting that the 
electorate has little understanding of the contribution of 
the BANINTER fraud to the principal woes of the population). 
When asked to identify those responsible for economic 
problems, 70 percent blamed Mejia, 17 percent blamed the 
Fernandez administration (1996-2000), and 8 percent blamed 
the bankers.  The poll suggested strongly that Mejia's 
campaign themes had not yet taken effect: 79 percent did not 
believe Mejia had boosted programs to fight poverty and 65 
percent disagreed with the assertion that his administration 
had built far more public works than had the Fernandez 
administration. 
 
A majority said Fernandez did a "bad" or "very bad" job 
privatizing electric companies.  This leaves at least one 
campaign opening for Meja if he can keep the lights on across 
the country over the next 90 days. 
 
Campaigning 
 
None of the major parties has published a platform. 
Fernandez himself told EcoPol counselor on February 10th that 
the PLD has put together an economic proposal "full of new 
ideas" that it is submitting for private comment to 
influential institutions "such as the Economist Intelligence 
Unit."  PLD senior advisor Temistocle Montas says that a 
general platform will be ready soon and he has promised to 
invite Embassy officers to the unveiling.  Montas implied 
that the PLD has waited for the event, satisfied in the 
meantime to see its PRD rivals pulling their own party apart 
in the press. 
 
As for rallies and campaigning, both Hipolito and Leonel are 
taking a high profile.  The President is busy inaugurating 
public works projects, particularly rural water supply 
projects.  Fernandez campaigned this past week in Santiago 
and in the New York area, where most of the nation's 52,400 
registered expatriate voters live.  On February 14-15 the PLD 
conducted its second door-to-door canvassing effort to help 
voters resolve registration problems. 
 
Estrella of the PRSC faces a rocky road, despite his modest 
uptick in the polls.  The PRSC's own more recent survey 
(February 4-6, from an unrevealed source) shows Fernandez 
with 48 percent of voter intentions and Estrella with 24 
percent, trailed by Mejia at 12 percent; their 
prognosticators say that in a runoff, Estrella would beat 
Fernandez 53-47 percent.  When renegade PRSC elder statesmen 
close to former Vice President Jacinto Peynado met with us 
February 12, they seemed resigned to defeat in May. Their 
party's candidate had fallen short of expectations "because 
he can't make decisions."  They acknowledged a shortage of 
campaign funds.  These dissidents on February 11 issued a 
call for "a grand national alliance" of "all political and 
social sectors" to agree on "a minimum program of government 
for the next eight years."  They had no specifics to suggest 
to us. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
HERTELL