US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS666

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000666 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/SNEC, EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KZ, KG, TI, TX, UZ, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: US-EU COEST CONSULTATIONS PART 1: CENTRAL ASIA 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On February 9 in Brussels, EUR DAS Lynn 
Pascoe -- accompanied by EUR/ACE Deputy Dan Rosenblum and 
EUR/ERA Director Kathy Allegrone -- discussed US-EU 
cooperation in Central Asia and the South Caucasus with the 
EU's COEST Troika.  This cable covers the Central Asia 
portion of the consultations.  The South Caucasus portion 
will be reported septel. 
 
-- Kazakhstan: Country remains relative bright spot in 
region, but still needs outside pressure to continue reforms; 
immediate priority is for US and EU to coordinate closely on 
the ground during run up to parliamentary elections. 
 
-- Uzbekistan: EU shares US concerns about new NGO 
registration procedures; EU considering how to respond to 
UNHRC resolution; wants to be firm on HR without pushing 
Karimov away. 
 
-- Kyrgyzstan: EU is pleased with Kyrgyzstan's extension of 
death penalty moratorium, but sees progress on new election 
code as insufficient; new Commission office in Bishkek will 
provide opportunity for enhanced US-EU pre-election 
coordination. 
 
-- Tajikistan: Commission soon to open office in Dushanbe; 
will emphasize border controls and counternarcotics in 
upgraded dialogue with Tajikistan. 
 
-- Chinese Policies: EU keen to hear US views on Chinese 
regional policies; glad to learn US views them as generally 
non-threatening with regard to Central Asia.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
Regional Comments 
----------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Irish Presidency rep Barbara Jones said she had 
recently met with the Russian Ambassador to the OSCE in 
Vienna, who did not see the US/EU/OSCE as having a role to 
play in the democratization of the region.  Jones concluded 
from this that much of the U.S. and EU effort would therefore 
be bilateral, as Russia would limit the OSCE's role in the 
region.  Commission Central Asia and Caucasus Director Kurt 
Juul said he has noted increased Russian and Chinese interest 
in Central Asia; the EU will continue its focus on regional 
programs but the challenge is for the countries of Central 
Asia to take concrete steps on political and economic 
reforms.  Commissioner Patten plans to visit Central Asia in 
March.  Since the last COEST Troika, Juul said that the EU 
has initialed a partnership and Cooperation Agreement with 
Tajikistan. 
 
Turkmenistan 
------------ 
 
3. (SBU) Juul said the EU has noted an increased desire on 
the part of Turkmenistan for a dialogue with the EC. 
Following the EU's recent formal trade and cooperation 
meeting with the Turkmen, an informal discussion was held 
that included an extensive review of human rights issues. 
The EU, Juul said, was encouraged and is prepared to test the 
waters with Ashgabat and engage the Turkmen further. 
 
Kazakhstan 
---------- 
 
4. (SBU) Juul termed events in Kazakhstan as reflecting an 
increasingly "normal" development, with some positive 
movement on human rights issues.  He said that European 
companies remain excited about the business potential of 
Kazakhstan,s increasing role as a major energy supplier. 
While serious concerns about the business environment 
persist, European companies seemed committed to continuing 
their engagement with the GOK, he said.  Juul noted that 
Russian companies also seemed increasingly interested in 
investing in the Kazakh private sector. 
 
Pascoe agreed that Kazakhstan,s energy assets and early 
reform efforts pointed toward a brighter future than most of 
its neighbors, but cautioned that we should continue pressing 
Nazarbayev to consolidate the positive changes and follow 
through on his reform commitments.  Jones pointed out that 
Nazarbayev,s apparent effort to crown his daughter for 
presidential succession did not bode well for ongoing 
political reforms.  Pascoe agreed that it bore watching, but 
noted that Kazakhstan had a large pool of competent 
progressive officials who would work for progress.  The 
immediate priority, he said, was for the US and EU to 
coordinate closely on the ground during the run up to 
parliamentary elections to ensure a positive pre-election 
environment and broader political representation in the new 
parliament.  Jones emphatically agreed, and said she would 
push for the same kind of close coordination that we have 
benefited from in Ukraine.  She would also support a 
Brussels-Washington link if it helped with coordination on 
the ground, but noted that field coordination would, as 
usual, be most fruitful. 
 
Uzbekistan 
---------- 
5. (SBU) The EU agreed with Pascoe that Uzbekistan posed a 
particular challenge because on the one hand it remains a 
notable human rights violator while on the other it continues 
to make progress ) albeit grudging and halting ) on 
political reform.  Uzbekistan has not strayed from its 
determination to do just enough to keep the West off its 
back.  Karimov had yet to realize that political and economic 
reform was necessary for Uzbekistan,s development, Pascoe 
said.  Yet firm pressure works in Central Asia, Juul 
observed, and should be maintained; but we must also be 
careful to recognize the positive steps as they are taken. 
Both sides agreed that the key challenge was to maintain a 
firm line with Karimov while also not pushing him away from 
the table. 
 
6. (SBU) Jones said the EU shared US concerns about 
Tashkent,s new NGO policy, and did not accept FM Safayev,s 
explanation that the transfer of NGO monitoring authority 
from the Foreign to the Interior Ministry was a technical 
shift only. Irish COEST Deputy Chair Peter McIver said that 
Safayev told the EU at Cooperation Council meeting on January 
27 that the government made the change because the Foreign 
Ministry could only assign one staffer to the NGO office, 
while the Interior Ministry had more resources and could thus 
do a better job.  The EU found the assertion laughable, Jones 
said, but their overall impression of Safayev had been 
positive.  The Council Secretariat,s Michael Swann said that 
Human Rights Watch (HRW) had visited his office the day after 
the Cooperation Council meetings.  HRW claimed that Safayev, 
while slick and well-spoken, was no better than the others, 
and had been sent because Karimov thought his considerable 
charm could woo the West.  HRW said it would accuse the EU of 
backpeddling if the Conclusions issued by January's meetings 
were any softer than those of earlier EU-Uzbekistan meetings. 
 
7. (SBU) Jones said the EU is still discussing how to handle 
a resolution on Uzbekistan in the UNHRC this year.  The EU 
felt bound to call Tashkent on its abuses, but was also keen 
not to do anything that might disrupt Uzbekistan's grudging 
progress.  Pascoe said the US shared the dilemma.  He also 
noted that Karimov has lately been asking for support on 
education reform.  Donors should consider how to take 
advantage of this opening.  Jones said the EU would consider 
its options.  Jones closed by observing that March and April 
would be active months for Uzbekistan, with UNHRC and visits 
to the country by the EBRD and Commissioner Patten (March 
14).  Jones and Pascoe agreed that it would be useful to 
regroup and together assess next steps after these events. 
 
Kyrgyzstan 
---------- 
 
8. (SBU) Dutch Deputy Director Renette van der Waal conveyed 
a mixed EU assessment of Kyrgyz progress.  The EU was pleased 
with Kyrgyzstan's extension of the death penalty moratorium, 
but thought that insufficient progress was being made on the 
new election code.  Juul said the EU would meet with Akayev 
in March and would discuss progress on human rights, civil 
society and economic reform.  Pascoe agreed with the mixed 
assessment, but said that the mix leaned more heavily to the 
positive side than the negative.  Kyrgyzstan is undertaking 
some good reforms, he said, but the efforts are hampered by 
Kyrgyzstan's poverty and lack of resources and experience. 
Jones said she would task the German Embassy (representing EU 
interests) and the soon to be opened Commission delegation in 
Bishkek to begin coordinating pre-election activities as soon 
as possible with the US Embassy. 
 
Tajikistan 
---------- 
 
9. (SBU) Pascoe said political stability and the drug trade 
continued to be Tajikistans' biggest challenges.    Our main 
push is to help the country to normality.  Pascoe also said 
the US was pleased that the Commission had decided to open a 
delegation in Dushanbe.  Juul said the EU's upgraded dialogue 
with Tajikistan would emphasize border controls and 
counternarcotics.  Swann echoed Juul's statement and pointed 
out that countering drugs and organized crime was moving up 
the EU's international agenda in light of the recently 
adopted European Security Strategy. 
 
China,s Central Asia Policy 
--------------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) Pascoe fielded several questions from Troika 
members keen to hear US views on China,s Central Asia 
policy.  In response, Pascoe said that China,s actions 
appeared fairly transparent, and motivated by obvious 
security and energy interests.  Asked about the Shanghai 
Cooperation Organization (SCO), Pascoe said that the SCO 
appeared hobbled by a lack of financial support from anywhere 
save Beijing.  The US had expressed an interest in observer 
status, but neither the Chinese nor the Russians seemed 
enthusiastic about this.  (COMMENT: The EU did not offer a 
view of its own, seeming instead to be in search of 
information that would help the EU determine if it should be 
concerned about China,s increasing interest in its western 
neighborhood.  Several Troika members appeared relieved to 
learn that the US did not view China,s engagement in Central 
Asia, including the SCO, as a major threat.  END COMMENT.) 
 
Dushanbe minimize considered. 
 
Schnabel