US embassy cable - 04CARACAS535

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 000535 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON 
USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/12/2004 
 
REF: CARACAS 00503 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles S. Shapiro for Reasons 1.5(b) and (d) 
 
 
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SUMMARY: 
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1. CNE: 
 
-- (C) OAS observers told poloff on February 11 that the 
National Electoral Council (CNE) will re-submit the remainder 
of the signature forms for the presidential recall referendum 
to a verification using their stricter criteria.  This move 
will certainly slow the verification process and increase the 
number of signatures that could ultimately be stricken from 
the count. 
 
-- (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez announced February 12 the 
results of the signature drive would be known by the end of 
February. 
 
-- (U) Pro-Chavez CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez alleged that 
opposition forces were pressuring the body to decide in their 
favor.  Pro-opposition CNE Vice President Ezequiel Zamora 
said he would ask authorities to remove a pro-Chavez 
activists ("chavistas") camping on the sidewalk outside the 
CNE building. 
 
2. Carter Center: 
 
-- (U) Visiting Carter Center representative Jennifer McCoy 
met with CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez February 12.  She 
announced that the Carter Center was concerned about public 
safety at the CNE building for the up-coming marches.  The 
OAS and Carter Center will meet together with the CNE on 
February 13. 
 
3. GoV: 
 
-- (C) Acting ForMin Arevalo Mendez told the Ambassador on 
February 11  the opposition is trying to recreate the events 
of April 2002.  However, Mendez said the "people" would not 
allow it this time. 
 
-- (U) Minister of Infrastructure Diosdado Cabello said on 
February 11 the GoV would "defend democracy," denied that the 
GoV was planning an "autogolpe," and repeated that the GoV 
would abide by the decision of the CNE. 
 
-- (U) MVR Deputy Dario Vivas announced on February 12 the 
GoV would begin Carnival celebrations one week at Plaza 
Venezuela, where the opposition had been planning to rally to 
distribute copies of the signatures to its marchers. 
 
4. Opposition: 
 
-- (C) Former Chavez advisor and current Chavez critic Luis 
Miquilena told the Ambassador said he believes the "fix is 
in" with the CNE, and the TSJ will back them up to stop the 
referendum. 
 
-- (C) Rumors persist that elements on both sides are 
planning to stage violent attacks during the February 13 and 
14 marches in an attempt to garner support. 
 
End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Look Again: CNE To Re-hash Signatures 
Using Tougher Standards 
------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) OAS observers told poloff late on the evening of 
February 11 that, as expected, the CNE board will re-submit 
signature forms for the presidential recall referendum from 
11 states to an additional verification process, using a new 
stricter criteria.  OAS observers told poloff that during the 
 
inspection of the opposition's presidential recall signature 
forms the criteria for verification were tightened (see 
reftel), dramatically increasing the rate at which signature 
forms were referred to the CNE's Superior Technical Committee 
(CTS) for additional review.  The CNE's decision will ask 
workers to go back and look at all the forms previously 
reviewed to see if they meet the new higher standards. 
 
6. (C) A total of 25 percent of the signature forms have been 
sent to the CTS for additional review so far.  The CNE's 
decision to review all forms using the new tougher criteria 
could result in an additional 90,000 signature forms (or 
roughly 900,000 signatures) being referred to the CTS, 
thereby throwing as many as 50 percent of the signature forms 
into the pile to go through the heightened CTS scrutiny. 
This move will certainly slow the verification process and 
increase the number of signatures that could ultimately be 
stricken from the count. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
CNE Promises Results by End of February 
--------------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez announced February 12 the 
results of the signature drive would be known by the end of 
February.  The CNE also announced that on February 12 they 
would begin to discuss establishing criteria for the CTS 
committee, which has already begun meeting without any formal 
instructions.  Visiting Carter Center representative Jennifer 
McCoy met with CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez February 12.  She 
announced that the Carter Center was concerned about public 
safety at the CNE building for the up-coming marches.  The 
OAS and Carter Center will meet together with the CNE on 
February 13. 
 
-------------------------------- 
CNE Chiefs Air Their Differences 
-------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez, who was appointed by the 
pro-Chavez Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) party, made a 
statement February 11 to decry various unnamed "sectors" 
trying to hinder the CNE's work, alleging that opposition 
forces were pressuring the body to decide in their favor. 
Not to be outdone, CNE Vice President Ezequiel Zamora, 
appointed by the opposition, said he would ask authorities to 
remove a vocal group of pro-Chavez activists ("chavistas") 
camping on the sidewalk outside the CNE building.  The 
chavistas, led by pro-Chavez activist Lina Ron, posed for 
cameras and made speeches on bullhorns outside the CNE 
February 12, vowing that they would remain at the CNE to 
confront opposition marches scheduled for February 13 and 14. 
 Some wore Che Gueverra-style combat fatigues and berets. 
Nevertheless, Rodriguez announced February 12 that the 
results of the signature drive would be known by the end of 
February. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
GoV Warns Opposition, Pledges to Follow CNE Decisions 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
9. (C) Acting Foreign Minister General Arevalo Mendez told 
the Ambassador on February 12 that the opposition is trying 
to recreate the events which lead to Chavez's temporary 
removal in April 2002.  However, Mendez said the western 
neighborhoods of the capital will not march this time. 
Mendez said April 2002 was the only time in the country's 
history when Venezuelans took to the street to protest a coup 
d'etat.  The difference between today and April 2002, said 
Mendez, is that today the "people are organized" and would 
prevent the opposition from attempting a coup to begin with. 
 
10. (U) Diosdado Cabello, the GoV Minister of Infrastructure 
and a long-time Chavez hard-liner, joined in the public war 
of words on February 11 by saying that the GoV knew how far 
it was willing to go "to defend democracy" and Chavez's 
self-declared bolivarian revolution.  Cabello denied that the 
GoV was planning an "autogolpe," or self-coup, to stop a 
recall referendum, and repeated that the GoV would abide by 
 
the decision of the CNE. 
 
11. (U) MVR Deputy Dario Vivas announced February 12 the GOV 
would begin Carnival celebrations one week early by having 
activities such as beauty contest preliminaries at Plaza 
Venezuela, where the opposition had been planning to rally to 
distribute copies of the signatures to its marchers. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Opposition Points to Sneaky Business in the CNE 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
12. (C) During a February 12 meeting with the Ambassador, 
former Chavez advisor and current Chavez critic Luis 
Miquilena said he is very worried about the CNE's handling of 
the presidential signature drive.  Miquilena believes the 
"fix is in" with the CNE, and the TSJ will back them up to 
stop the referendum.  Miquilena also sees a potential for 
violence this weekend, which Chavez will use as a pretext to 
react strongly. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Conspiracy Theories Abound from Both Sides 
------------------------------------------ 
 
13. (C) Rumors persist that elements on both sides are 
planning to stage violent attacks during the February 13 and 
14 marches in an attempt to garner support.  In one scenario, 
an opposition fringe group is rumored to be instructing 
demonstrators to bring guns to the February 14 march on the 
CNE to protect against expected attacks from pro-GoV 
activists ("chavistas"), or to invite violence against 
themselves in order to repeat the events of April 2002, when 
the military intervened and temporarily removed Chavez. 
Other opposition rumors suggest that chavistas are willing to 
shoot their own supporters and cleverly blame it on the 
opposition in order to trigger a popular pro-Chavez outcry. 
 
14. (C) The GoV, for its part, is peddling its own conspiracy 
theories.  During a February 12 meeting with poloff, ruling 
MVR deputy Calixto Ortega painted an elaborate picture in 
which he asserted anti-GoV activists plan to infiltrate Lina 
Ron's group and throw explosives at the CNE building on 
February 13 or 14.  Ortega suggested this would provide cover 
for the opposition to enter the CNE, destroy evidence of 
their "mega-fraud," and let them blame the GoV.  Ortega 
distanced himself from Lina Ron, asserting she was an 
uncontrollable extremist working on her own behalf.  While 
Ortega said he was sure that authorities would cooperate to 
keep violence to a minimum, he admitted that the GoV timed 
its Youth Convention (see reftel) in order to have GoV 
supporters on hand in case things "get rough." 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA00535 - CONFIDENTIAL