US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN366

UNCLAS YEREVAN 000366 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, INL/C 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, AM 
SUBJECT:  CRACKS IN THE COALITION: DASHNAKS ATTACK THE 
GOAM IN AN ANTI-CORRUPTION FRENZY 
 
1. (U) Sensitive but Unclassified.  Protect 
Accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Armenia's governing coalition, an alliance of 
the Republican Party, Armenian Revolutionary Federation 
(ARF, or Dashnaks), and Orinats Yerkir (Country of 
Law), that holds the majority of seats in the National 
Assembly (NA), has shown signs of cracking on the anti- 
corruption issue.  During a January 19 Council of 
Europe (COE) seminar, Vahan Hovhannissian, a prominent 
ARF figure and the Deputy Chairman of the NA, harshly 
criticized the GOAM, the NA, Court and Judicial systems 
and all government agencies for engaging in corruption. 
February 6, during the ARF World Congress, the ARF 
again took the current government to task for its 
record on corruption, sending a clear message to the 
public that the ARF is the only partner in the 
coalition who really fights against corruption.  Some 
observers see the possible implementation of the Anti- 
Corruption Plan by the GOAM as a viability test for the 
coalition.  End Summary. 
 
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COALITION GOVERNMENT: ONE POWER, DIFFERENT IDEOLOGIES 
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3. (SBU) The coalition of the three leading political 
parties is not so much an alliance of ideologies, but 
rather a marriage of convenience of parties supporting 
President Kocharian.  Within this alliance the parties 
often push issues that are high on their own party 
agendas, even though some of them contradict the 
priorities of other coalition members.  For example, 
during the fall 2003 session of the NA, the Orinats 
Yerkir party put the issue of making whole Soviet era 
bank deposits on the NA's agenda.  Although a coalition 
partner raised the issue, Prime Minister Margarian and 
his Republican Party expressly acted against it, while 
the ARF lambasted the Orinats Yerkir party as a "party 
full of populist ideas." 
 
4. (SBU) Intense jockeying over assigning Ministerial, 
Deputy Ministerial and other high-ranking positions 
exposed other weaknesses in the coalition.  The 
Dashnaks (ARF) and Orinats Yerkir ended up with three 
Ministerial portfolios each (out of a total of 16). 
(Note:  According to some experts, we should be looking 
for additional new appointments as the fourth pro- 
Kocharian party in the NA, the Unified Labor Party and 
the "Peoples Deputy" fraction join the Coalition.  End 
Note.) 
 
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COMMENT: THE COALITION'S ANTI-CORRUPTION CHALLENGE 
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5. (SBU) The fight against corruption, in our view, has 
the potential to become a major challenge for the 
coalition government.  The Dashnaks are likely to take 
a leading role in this debate to convince their 
electorate that they are being consistent with their 
pre-election promises.  During the World Congress held 
in Yerevan on February 6, the leaders of the party 
consistently blamed GOAM officials for using their 
offices to accumulate wealth and for engaging in 
commercial activities.  By contrast, the Republican 
Party, the senior party in the coalition, is trying to 
demonstrate their democratic credentials to the Council 
of Europe by pushing forward the GOAM's anti-corruption 
strategy.  Many Western observers, however, view the 
strategy as flawed and are not yet convinced the GOAM 
intends to tackle corruption head-on. 
 
6. (SBU) Nevertheless, the word in political circles in 
Yerevan is that it is the Republican Party that would 
be most affected should the GOAM seriously take on 
corruption, while Orinats Yerkir might set itself up 
almost as an "outside observer" on the issue.  Either 
way, the anti-corruption issue has the potential to 
become a test for the Coalition's viability. 
ORDWAY