US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO248

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000248 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:   DECL:  02-13-14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, PHUM, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT:  Maldives:  Increasing signs of opposition to 
the long rule of President Gayoom 
 
Refs:  Colombo 181, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Opposition to President Gayoom's long 
rule of the Maldives appears to be growing stronger. 
Mission has heard that anti-Gayoom elements may be 
planning to rally in Male' and that police have been out 
in force to counter any such effort.  There are also 
indications that an anti-Gayoom political party is 
increasingly active and may be picking up support.  It 
remains unclear how serious the situation is for Gayoom, 
but it appears to be growing increasingly tense.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) REPORTS OF INCREASING DISSENSION:  Opposition to 
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's long rule of the 
Maldives appears to be growing stronger.   One key 
indication of this came in a February 12 phone 
conversation between Ambassador Lunstead and Minh Pham, 
UNDP Resident Representative for the Maldives (Amcit-- 
strictly protect).  Pham said he was hearing an 
increasing number of reports that an "active 
underground" in the country was planning a large 
demonstration that would take place in Male' in coming 
days, possibly on February 12 or 14.  In reaction to 
these reports, Pham related, the Maldivian government 
had imposed a "restrictive travel order" (effectively a 
curfew) from 1-4 AM for February 12 in Male'.  Due to 
the increase in tension, the UN had raised its security 
posture to "Phase I" for the time being.  (Note:  We 
have not heard that any demonstration took place in 
Male' on February 12.  Several attempts to contact Pham 
early on February 13 to check on the situation were not 
successful.  A long-time Embassy contact, Pham has 
spoken to us several times of late about the recent rise 
in tensions in the Maldives -- see Reftels.  Tensions 
began their spike in September 2003 when rioting erupted 
in Male' after police shootings at a prison on a nearby 
island.) 
 
3.  (C) DISSIDENT TO RETURN?:  In another sign of 
political dissonance, Mission has been contacted by 
Waheed Hassan, a former member of the Majlis 
(Parliament) and key figure in Maldivian opposition 
circles.  Currently working for UNICEF in Kabul, 
Afghanistan, Hassan -- via e-mail -- related that he was 
contemplating a return to the Maldives at the request of 
other opposition elements soon.  It is not clear whether 
Hassan has received GoRM permission to return.  Due to 
his anti-Gayoom views, however, it is believed that he 
has been in semi-official exile for some years and could 
potentially be a target for arrest. 
 
4.  (C) OPPOSITION PARTY ACTIVITIES:  In the meantime, 
the most recent (February) newsletter of the anti-Gayoom 
Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) stated that former 
attorney general Mohamed Munavvar and former planning 
minister Ibrahim Hussain Zaki had joined the opposition 
party's ranks.  (Note:  The MDP is not a recognized 
legal entity in the Maldives, where Gayoom has nixed the 
creation of political parties.  It is active among 
Maldivians living overseas, however, including those in 
Sri Lanka, and may be increasingly active inside the 
Maldives.)  Both Munavvar and Zaki were ousted from 
their positions when Gayoom reshuffled his cabinet at 
the time of his November 2003 inauguration.  Munavvar, 
however, still retains his seat in the Majlis, 
representing the southern atoll district of Addu.  In 
the past, both men have spoken to Mission of their 
dissatisfaction with Gayoom and the current political 
climate in the Maldives (see Reftels).  The MDP's claim 
that the two men have joined that party has not been 
independently confirmed, however. 
 
5.  (C) As for the MDP, the party seems to be becoming 
increasingly active.  According to its website 
(www.maldiviandemocraticparty.org), the party just 
conducted online elections for a "General Council," 
which concluded February 12.  Among those reportedly 
elected to the MDP's 15-member council were Zaki, as 
well as Jenifer Latheef, daughter of one of the MDP 
organizers.  It is not precisely clear, but Waheed 
Hassan appears to be one of the major organizers of the 
MDP. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  It remains unclear how serious the 
situation is for Gayoom.  He has been in power for over 
25 years now and, by and large, has proven adept at 
defusing opposition to his rule.  That said, the 
situation does appear relatively tense, especially in 
light of the unprecedented rioting that rocked Male' 
last September after prison violence on a nearby island 
(see Reftels).  The official reports that Gayoom ordered 
to look into the September violence are now out and in 
public view, but the opposition is making great hay out 
of the fact that some sections were redacted, claiming 
that there has been a cover-up (Gayoom says the redacted 
sections deal with issues that need to be protected for 
reasons of national security).  Given the ferocity of 
the charges and the apparent web of support the MDP is 
netting, Gayoom clearly has his hands full.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
7.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
 
LUNSTEAD