US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS631

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BRUSSELS 000631 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DOL FOR BLS AND ILAB 
TREASURY FOR IMI 
STATE FOR DRL/IL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT:  THE NEXT EU COMMISSION: A BRUSSELS PREVIEW 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) The EU rumor mill is already full of 
possible candidates for the succession of Romano 
Prodi as Commission President in November 2004.  EU 
leaders are expected to pick a President-designate 
at their June 17-18 Summit (European Council) 
meeting in Brussels, shortly after the June 10-13 
elections to the European Parliament (EP).  Powerful 
voices in the EP insist Prodi's successor must come 
from whichever political family emerges from the 
June EP elections with the most seats.  As things 
stand, this could induce leaders to pick up a 
candidate closely associated with the European 
People's Party (EPP), thus giving Luxembourg PM 
Juncker, former Belgian PM Dehaene or Austrian 
Chancellor Schuessel the best chances to win the 
nomination, though some (Juncker, in particular) 
might hesitate to leave national politics.  The 
designation will be followed by the intricate 
process of choosing the other 24 Commissioners from 
each of the remaining Member States, and allocating 
portfolios among them. END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) This next generation of EU officials will be 
key interlocutors for the U.S. on the whole range of 
issues filling the US-EU agenda.  Not just the new 
Commission President, but also those Commissioners 
who hold key portfolios such as Trade, External 
Relations, Competition, Internal Market or others 
will play central roles in our efforts ranging from 
WTO negotiations to border security measures and 
assistance coordination. 
 
WHO WILL SUCCEED PRODI? 
----------------------- 
 
3. (U) The mandate of EU Commission President Prodi 
and his colleagues in the college of Commissioners 
will expire at the end of October this year. 
President Prodi is expected to return to Italian 
politics.  The Brussels rumor mill is already full 
of possible candidates for Prodi's succession, a job 
that involves running the EU executive, initiator of 
legislation in key economic areas and manager of EU 
trade and competition policies, all areas of crucial 
interest to the USG. 
 
4. (U) The nomination of Prodi's successor is a 
matter for the EU leaders, who will make their 
choice at their June 17-18 Summit in Brussels, less 
than a week after the elections to the EP.  The 
decision, in which the current Irish Presidency (PM 
Ahern) is expected to play the role of honest 
broker, will likely be made by consensus, although 
Nice Treaty rules now allow it to be made by 
qualified-majority voting.  The EP must then confirm 
the Commission President-designate.  Thereafter, as 
we move into the Dutch Presidency (starting on July 
1), the President-designate will have contacts with 
all EU governments to draw up the list of the other 
members of the new Commission, based on proposals by 
each government (one Commissioner per Member State, 
including the President-designate).  It will fall to 
the new Commission President to allocate portfolios 
in the new team. 
 
5. (SBU) Powerful voices in the EP insist Prodi's 
successor must come from whichever political family 
emerges from the June elections with the most seats. 
The largest EP group currently is the European 
People's Party (EPP), made up of Christian-Democrats 
and Conservatives.  Based on the current grouping of 
party affiliates, the only other group that might 
win a larger number in the next Parliament is the 
center-left Party of European Socialists (PES), 
although there are possible candidates for top jobs 
from smaller party groups, especially the Liberals. 
 
6. (SBU) Nationality is another key factor: with de 
Hoop Scheffer at NATO, no Dutchman can reasonably 
set his hopes on the Commission; if Solana is 
reappointed High Rep in the fall, Spain is unlikely 
to win another EU top job, etc.  It is not 
conceivable that the new President would be chosen 
from any of the ten new Member States, but there 
might be interest in appointing someone from outside 
the EU's "founding six" as only one previous 
Commission President (UK's Roy Jenkins) has come 
from outside this group of France, Germany, Italy 
and the Benelux.  Here is what we have gleaned in 
the EU corridors, although the fluid nature of the 
issue at this stage means the list cannot be 
considered exhaustive: 
 
TOP CONTENDERS: 
 
--Jean-Claude Juncker (Luxembourg PM, EPP): veteran 
  of the EU leaders club, said to be favored by 
  France and Germany; chances weakened by Jacques 
  Santer's 1999 debacle as last Luxembourg PM to 
  serve as Commission President; has repeatedly 
  expressed preference for another term as PM 
  (national elections to coincide with the Euro- 
  elections); 
 
--Jean-Luc Dehaene (Belgian former PM, EPP): failed 
  to win the job in 1995 (due to UK veto); able to 
  master detail and to forge compromises; served as 
  Vice-President of the Convention that drafted the 
  EU Constitution; 
 
--Wolfgang Schuessel (Austrian Chancellor, EPP): 
  his nationality and political affiliation may 
  prove assets; his coalition with Haider's party is 
  definitely a minus; 
 
--Paavo Lipponen (Finnish former PM, PES): openly 
  interested in the job; strong defender of the 
  Commission and the small states; 
 
--Costas Simitis (Greek departing PM, PES): managed 
  not to make enemies during Greece's EU Presidency 
  in 2003; soon to be available. 
 
OTHER POTENTIAL CANDIDATES: 
 
--Guy Verhofstadt (Belgian PM, Liberal): not willing 
  to admit his ambitions; may be tempted to take the 
  EU path if his coalition government gets into 
  trouble; 
 
--Pat Cox (Irish, EP President, Liberal): very 
  effective speaker; would probably do well to bring 
  the EU closer to its citizens, but seen as lacking 
  government experience. 
 
DARK HORSES: 
 
--Antonio Vitorino (Portuguese, JHA Commissioner, 
  PES): efficient Commissioner with good knowledge 
  of the EU machinery, has received public support 
  from the current EPP-led Portugese government; 
 
--Guenther Verheugen (German, Enlargement 
  Commissioner, PES): Chancellor Schroeder wants him 
  to stay in Brussels with another portfolio; his 
  handling of enlargement could make him a popular 
  candidate among new Member States; 
 
POSSIBLY, BUT MAY NOT BE INTERESTED? 
 
--Anders Fogh Rasmussen (Danish PM, Liberal): very 
  effective during 2002 Danish EU Presidency; 
 
--Peter Sutherland (Irish, former Commissioner and 
  WTO Director-General, Chairman of BP and Goldman 
  Sachs); 
 
--Joschka Fischer (German FM, Green): has European 
  vision; probably cannot leave Berlin; 
 
--Jose Maria Aznar (Spanish departing PM, EPP): said 
  he was not interested. 
 
THE NEXT COMMISSION: WHO IS IN, WHO IS OUT? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) As regards the subsequent task of 
assembling a new Commission, among the safest 
conclusions we can make at this point is that the 
ten Commissioners who will join the Prodi team on 
May 1 from the new Member States will all, or nearly 
all, stay on in Brussels as part of the next 
Commission for its 2004-2009 term.  The ten, who 
will serve with full voting rights but with no 
portfolio of their own for the interim May-October 
period, should be: 
 
--Czech Republic:  Milos Kuzvart, former Environment 
  Minister; 
 
--Cyprus:  Marcos Kyprianou, Finance Minister; 
 
--Estonia: Siim Kallas, former PM, Foreign and 
  Finance Minister; 
 
--Hungary: Peter Balasz, Ambassador to the EU, 
  formerly State Secretary and representative in the 
  Convention on the Future of Europe; 
 
--Latvia: Sandra Kalniete, Foreign Minister; 
 
--Lithuania: Dalia Grybauskaite, Finance Minister; 
 
--Malta: Joe Borg, Foreign Minister; 
 
--Poland: Danuta Huebner, Minister for European 
  Integration; 
 
--Slovenia: Janez Potocnik, Minister for European 
  Affairs; 
 
--Slovakia: Jan Figel, Parliament Foreign Affairs 
  Committee chair, former chief EU negotiator. 
 
8. (SBU) For the other 15 Member States, things are 
less clear: 
 
--Austria: Franz Fischler (Agriculture and 
  Fisheries) has said he will leave Brussels.  If 
  Schuessel is not named Commission President, one 
  possibility is FM Ferrero-Waldner; 
 
--Belgium: Philippe Busquin (Research) would be 
  interested in another term, but his fate depends 
  on a decision by Francophone Socialist party 
  leader Di Rupo.  An EP seat would be a second 
  choice; 
 
--Denmark: Poul Nielson (Development and 
  Humanitarian Assistance), a Socialist, is not 
  expected to be re-nominated by the Liberal-led 
  government in Copenhagen; 
 
--Germany: Chancellor Schroeder would like 
  Enlargement Commissioner Guenther Verheugen (also 
  a dark horse candidate for President) to stay on, 
  possibly with an internal economic portfolio such 
  as Competition or the Single Market.  Verheugen's 
  own interests more likely to be in Trade or 
  External Relations.  Budget Commissioner Michele 
  Schreyer (Green) will not stay on, as Germany and 
  other big states will only have one, rather than 
  two Commission seats; 
 
--Greece: Anna Diamontopoulou (Employment and Social 
  Affairs) is leaving Brussels to join the PASOK 
  campaign for March 7 Greek elections (septel).  If 
  PASOK wins upcoming elections, she might join new 
  government in Athens, if PASOK loses she will not 
  be nominated by the new Greek government.  Who 
  might replace her must await the outcome of the 
  Greek elections; 
 
--Finland: Erkki Liikanen (Enterprise and Info 
  Society) will likely leave Brussels, as he is not 
  seen as close to the current Finnish government; 
 
--France: Michel Barnier (Regional Policy) is said 
  to be interested in another term, but in a higher 
  profile job than his current one.  As France is 
  one of the countries losing its second Commission 
  seat, there is no chance Pascal Lamy (Trade, 
  Socialist) will be staying in the Commission; 
 
--Ireland: David Byrne (Health and Consumer 
  Protection) might be interested in another term; 
 
--Italy: Mario Monti (Competition) may be willing to 
  stay if assured of the Economic and Monetary 
  Affairs portfolio.  A possible replacement is 
  Rocco Buttiglione, Italian Minister for European 
  affairs; 
 
--Luxembourg: Viviane Reding (Education and 
  Culture), whose name is not on any of the 
  candidate lists for upcoming national or EP 
  elections in Luxembourg, would be interested in 
  another term.  Her future is uncertain, however, 
  due to possible candidacy of PM Juncker for 
  Commission President; 
 
--The Netherlands:  Frits Bolkestein (Internal 
  Market) is openly interested in another term; 
 
--Portugal:  Antonio Vitorino (Justice and Home 
  Affairs) is a dark horse candidate for Commission 
  President.  Even if not in that job, he could 
  still be Portugal's Commissioner, although he is a 
  Socialist coming from a country with a center- 
  right government; 
 
--Spain:  Both Loyola de Palacio (Transport and 
  Energy) and Pedro Solbes Mira (Economic and 
  Monetary Affairs) are expected to leave the 
  Commission; 
 
--Sweden:  Margot Wallstroem (Environment) is 
  reportedly on the outs with Socialist PM Persson 
  and thus considered unlikely to be renominated. 
  One rumored replacement might be Carl Bildt, 
  former center-right PM.  However, given 
  Wallstroem's popularity back home with Swedish 
  Socialists, some in Brussels think Persson might 
  see it as convenient to keep her Brussels; 
 
--UK:  Both Neil Kinnock (Administration) and Chris 
  Patten (External Relations) will be leaving the 
  Commission.  Britain's lone Commissioner in the 
  next term could be Blair-confidant Peter 
  Mandelson. 
 
SCHNABEL