US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO901

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 000901 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (MCISAAC), WHA/OAS (IRVING), DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES # 21: DOMINICAN SUPREME 
COURT DECLINES ADVANCE REVIEW OF ELECTION BILL 
 
REF: SANTO DOMINGO 00630 
 
 1.  (SBU) This is cable number 21 in our series on the 
Dominican Presidential Elections. 
 
Dominican Supreme Court Declines Advance Review of Election 
Bill 
 
     The tedious, messy and probably ultimately irrelevant 
initiative to pass a "slogan law" (ley de lemas) continued on 
February 9 as the Dominican Supreme Court advised the Senate 
that it would not provide an advisory opinion on the 
constitutionality of the bill.  Senate President Jesus 
Vasquez had sought advice from the Supreme Court and the 
Elections Board, then formally submitted the controversial 
draft law to the Court for advice on constitutionality. A 
February 6 brief from the Attorney General's office supported 
the bill and one jointly submitted by 10 NGOs opposed it. 
 
Congress has never before asked for Supreme Court advice on 
constitutionality prior to legislative approval of a 
proposal.  Rather than set a precedent which could lead to a 
review of every bill prior to passage, the Court advised that 
it could not act on a text that did not have the status of 
law. 
 
The Senate lost no time, moving the bill through two 
readings, approving it with minor changes on February 10 by a 
vote of 17-5 (the support was not particularly impressive and 
there were 7 Senators absent, including the single PLD 
Senator). House President Pacheco told poloff on Feb 11 that 
the draft is now with the lower house for the required two 
readings and vote, desired by the President's party prior to 
the February 13 expiration of the current special session. 
Last time, action in the House was frustrated when enough 
representatives walked out to leave the chamber without the 
requisite quorum. Our political contacts cynically expect the 
measure will pass the House with several bought votes 
providing the margin. 
 
If the proposal is passed by Congress President Mejia would 
be able to submit the law for Court consideration after 
passage (following the January 2002 precedent in which Mejia 
sought and obtained nullification of a legislative effort to 
convene a constitutional convention). He has told jouralists 
he will seek Supreme Court advice and he told the Ambassador 
last week that he will proceed strictly according to the 
Constitution. In any case, if the bill does become law, 
various NGOs have promised to take the issue to the Supreme 
Court. 
 
The Court's decision is both pragmatic and defensive. 
Justices decline advance comfort to legislators intent on 
changing at least some of the rules of the electoral game and 
they decline to open their docket to the job of 
"pre-clearance" of any number of future legislative 
proposals. The Court remains, for the moment, above 
accusations of political influence, unlike the Electoral 
Board (JCE). With this action the Court sets a precedent 
further defining the scope of its duties.  Even so, by Monday 
morning it may be facing the unpalatable task of examining at 
presidential request approximately the same text provided by 
Senate President Vasquez. 
 
Sound and Fury, Signifying (Probably) Nothing 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
In the last analysis, we expect that the "ley de lemas" 
effort will have little effect on the eventual outcome of the 
elections.  It is a PRD holding action, a belated effort to 
keep the President's various rivals inside the tent. If it 
passes and is sustained by the Supreme Court, the Elections 
Board will have some messy logistics before it, revising its 
procedures and dealing with registering some last-minute PRD 
presidential hopefuls.  We do not see any of them outpolling 
Mejia in May.  If the Court were to allow the dubious 
mechanism of cumulation of votes by party as the criterion 
for determining contenders for the second round, its 
impartiality would be questioned and it would lose a good 
deal of prestige. The practical question at that point would 
be whether the PRSC's Eduardo Estrella, alone, could 
out-point an array of PRD candidates, including Mejia.  Our 
read right now is that he could not, because he is likely to 
trail Mejia in any case, probably with less than 10 percent 
of votes cast. 
 
2. (U)  Drafted by Angela Kerwin, Michael Meigs. 
 
HERTELL