US embassy cable - 04CARACAS430

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 000430 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: READOUT ON CARTER VISIT: SHORING UP THE REFERENDUM 
 
REF: CARACAS 325 
 
Classified By: Mark A. Wells, A/Polcouns, for Reasons 
1.4(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Carter Center representative Francisco Diez believes 
the January 27-29 visit of former President Carter was 
pivotal in keeping the signature verification process at the 
National Electoral Commission (CNE) on track. In meetings 
with President Chavez, Carter emphasized the need for Chavez 
to allow the referendum to take place if the CNE so decides. 
Carter also convinced the CNE to gravitate toward March 1 as 
a realistic (albeit late) deadline for announcing the results 
of the signature drives.  Carter's visit stirred up some 
controversy when he praised Chavez publicly for fighting 
poverty.  We see Carter's visit as a buoy for the stressed 
out CNE and a reality check both for Chavez and the 
opposition.  End Summary. 
 
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Carter Center Rep Lists Trip Achievements 
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2. (C) On February 5 Francisco Diez, local representative of 
the Carter Center, gave the Ambassador his readout of the 
January 27-29 visit by former President Carter.  Diez 
characterized the major achievements of the visit as: 
 
-- Getting the National Electoral Commission (CNE) on track 
on the issue of granting full access to international 
observers (Note:  The Carter Center will expand its observers 
from four to twelve.  End note.); 
 
-- Laying out the need to consider the intention of the 
signers over legalistic barriers to verifying the signatures 
collected in favor of a recall vote against Chavez and 
National Assembly deputies; 
 
-- Focusing the CNE on March 1 as a deadline for announcing 
the results of the verification process (Note:  CNE rules had 
dictated February 13, but political conflicts have made March 
1 more likely, for now.  End note.); and 
 
-- Delivering a message to Chavez that he must allow the 
referendum to take place despite his persistent claims of 
wholesale fraud by the opposition. 
 
In addition, Carter resolved the issue of OAS access to all 
parts of the verification process. 
 
3. (C) Diez highlighted the second meeting between Carter and 
Chavez (January 29) in which Carter praised Chavez for his 
social programs aimed at the poor.  Carter reportedly said he 
was impressed by the popular support that Chavez enjoys. 
Without giving Chavez a chance to respond, Carter moved 
directly to the conclusion that Chavez ought to permit the 
referendum, which he stands an excellent chance of winning. 
A victory at the polls would allow Chavez some breathing room 
and get society moving forward again.  When Chavez asserted 
the claim of "megafraud," Carter repeated the message. 
 
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TSJ/CNE Dinner 
 
SIPDIS 
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4. (C) Carter had dinner with Supreme Court (TSJ) President 
Ivan Rincon and National Electoral Council (CNE) President 
Francisco Carrasquero during the visit.  Rincon told Carter 
that the decision to allow Chavez to run in the subsequent 
presidential election if he is recalled has already been 
drafted; its publication will await the results of a 
referendum.  Rincon promised that any legal challenge raised 
against the recall would be resolved quickly by the TSJ. 
 
5. (C) Carrasquero told Carter the CNE would complete its 
work by March 1 at the latest.  Diez said that Carrasquero 
 
comes across as someone who cares very much about his place 
in history and in fulfilling his mission to make the 
referendum process work.  (Note:  Carter made note of his 
conversation with Carrasquero in his press conference in 
which he suggested that March 1 would be the latest date the 
CNE should announce the results of the verification process. 
End note.) 
 
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Opposition Grimaces At Carter 
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6. (C) Diez told Ambassador he was concerned that some in the 
opposition has criticized Carter for complimenting Chavez on 
his anti-poverty campaigns.  Diez has been personally 
attacked as a closet "Chavista" by some in the opposition. 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) Former President Carter's visit was a touchstone for 
the verification process and buoy to the CNE.  Carter has 
high credibility with both sides and is seen as a senior 
statesman.  Carter's visit was key for delivering the message 
to Chavez that he must accept the CNE's results, which Chavez 
agreed to publicly.  By complimenting Chavez's social 
achievements, Carter also gave a reality check to the 
opposition about the tough electoral battles that lie ahead 
of them.  A reporter who covers the CNE full time told us on 
February 6 that the atmosphere in the CNE was completely 
different before and after the Carter visit.  Unfortunately, 
the warm glow wore off within the week, and the underlying 
political tensions between the Chavistas and the opposition 
have returned to prominence, including public accusations 
between CNE rectors.  While Chavez has not disowned his 
commitment to Carter that he would accept whatever the CNE 
decides, his lieutenants are doing everything they can to 
ensure that the decision is favorable to them. 
 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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