US embassy cable - 04PANAMA301

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 000301 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PM, POLITICS & FOREIGN POLICY 
SUBJECT: PANAMA ELECTIONS: FIRST DEBATE TURNS UP THE HEAT 
 
REF: PANAMA 0145 
 
 
1.  THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PROTECT 
ACCORDINGLY. 
 
 
SUMMARY: CANDIDATES BARE TEETH 
------------------------------ 
2.  (SBU) During Panama's February 2 nationwide televised 
presidential debate, the four candidates soon shelved their 
inhibitions and began attacking one another.  Unemployment, 
corruption, and education figured prominently.  Front-runner 
Martin Torrijos outpaced his opponents with such 
uncharacteristically reasoned, thoughtful responses in an 
impromptu setting, that opponents alleged he was given the 
questions beforehand.  At pains to be polite, Guillermo 
Endara responded to questions with conviction, while shooting 
subtle barbs at his opponents, but lacked the spark that has 
set him apart from the others.  Of the two stragglers in the 
polls, Ricardo Martinelli trumped Jose Miguel Aleman with a 
no-holds-barred frontal assault on Panama's incestuous 
political system.  Aleman's responses were peppered with 
clumsy attempts to attack his opponents and seemed stiff and 
rehearsed. End Summary. 
 
 
3.  (SBU) Each candidate used different means to try to sell 
himself to the debate viewers.  Martin repeatedly stressed 
that both Panama and the PRD "are different now." Responding 
to a question about his proposal to appoint a career police 
official to head the Panamanian National Police, Torrijos 
stated that Panama no longer has a military, so where's the 
problem?  Martinelli insisted repeatedly that he does not 
represent the "traditional political parties that are 
responsible for the poverty, unemployment and corruption from 
which this country suffers."  He stated that he would take 
"drastic measures" like reducing the tax on gasoline 
$0.25/gallon to stimulate economic activity.  Like 
Martinelli, Endara was willing to request that sitting 
Supreme Court Justices resign due to the perception that they 
are corrupt.  Endara curried favor with anti-PRD voters when 
he quipped that "as the only 'guest' in Panama's jails among 
the four candidates" (during the Noriega dictatorship as a 
political prisoner), he was best qualified to know how to 
reform the judiciary. 
 
 
METHOD TO THE MADNESS 
--------------------- 
4. (SBU) The debate format was based on 20 questions from the 
general public that a four-member committee pre-selected from 
an initial pool of approximately 200.  The press conglomerate 
MEDCOM received the questions via telephone, internet, and 
personal interview with Panamanians who approached its 
affiliates.  The candidates drew lots to determine their 
order of speaking and rotated who answered first.  At the end 
of the debate, the moderators gave each candidate ninety 
seconds to offer final comments. 
 
 
COMMENT: PERFORMANCE CRITIQUE 
----------------------------- 
5. (SBU) Commentators generally concurred that Arnulfista 
Candidate Jose Miguel Aleman had made a poor showing, 
Torrijos' had won, and the other two candidates had turned in 
a reasonable performance.  While repeating his "proposals for 
you" platform, which rarely responded to the question asked, 
Aleman launched personal attacks on Torrijos and Endara based 
on their past roles in government.  Martinelli's pugnacious 
anti-system assault catered to viewers fed up with Panama's 
political cronyism, but observers questioned his moral 
authority in saying such things having worked in the previous 
two administrations.  Despite being the firmest advocate of 
constitutional reform, Endara twice proposed measures that 
would violate the constitution.  After Endara said he would 
appoint a new Panama Canal Administrator, Torrijos corrected 
him by explaining that only the Panama Canal Board of 
Directors has the authority to name or remove the 
Administrator.  Endara later asserted that he would ask 
Supreme Court Justices for their resignation shortly after 
having complained about an overly powerful Executive branch. 
These missteps reinforced the public perception of Endara as 
an honest, well-intentioned figure who too frequently gets 
the facts wrong. 
 
 
BETTING ON THE PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACE 
-------------------------------------- 
6.  (SBU) The morning before the debate, the El Panama 
America newspaper published a CID Gallup public opinion poll 
that ranked the four candidates as follows: Martin Torrijos - 
42%, Guillermo Endara - 34%, Jose Miguel Aleman - 8%, and 
Ricardo Martinelli - 4%.  Since June 2003, the gap between 
Torrijos and Endara has narrowed, while Aleman's popularity 
has doubled (though only to 8%), leaving Martinelli firmly in 
last place.  Political insiders swear that the 67-year-old 
Endara's campaign will run out of gas, leaving the true 
competition between Torrijos and Aleman, who represent the 
country's two largest parties.  Indeed, 60 of 130 Solidarity 
Party delegates walked out of the party's recent nominating 
convention after party managers told several Colon stalwarts 
to step down and make way for first VP candidate Guillermo 
Ford's picks, some say evidence of Endara's disintegrating 
backing outside Panama City.  Considering that 30% of 
respondents said they would never vote for Aleman, Torrijos 
may not see Aleman as a real threat at present. 
Nevertheless, many seasoned political analysts assert that 
the Arnulfista party machine will deliver sufficient votes to 
overtake Endara and even narrow the gap to within five 
percentage points between Aleman and Torrijos.  (See Septel.) 
 
 
WATT