US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA133

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000133 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, LO 
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA POLITICAL ROUNDUP FEBRUARY 1-6, 2004 
 
 
1. SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
OUTCRY OVER LINKING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND REFERENDUM 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
2. (U) PRESIDENT SCHUSTER'S DECISION TO SCHEDULE THE 
REFERENDUM ON EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS THE SAME DAY AS 
    THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (APRIL 3) SPARKED IMMEDIATE 
CRITICISM.  OPPONENTS SAID THE MOVE WAS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL 
REELECTION CAMPAIGN PLOY TO SCHUSTER'S ADVANTAGE.  PM 
DZURINDA TOLD MEDIA THAT LINKING THE TWO VOTES WAS "UNFAIR 
AND DISHONEST."  THE RULING COALITION HAS VOWED TO TAKE THE 
MATTER TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT.  (COMMENT: THE TACTIC OF 
REFERRING THE ISSUE TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT MIGHT 
BENEFIT THE COALITION BY DELAYING THE REFERENDUM BEYOND 
APRIL 3, AND THUS ENSURING LOW VOTER TURNOUT.  HOWEVER, IT 
COULD ALSO BE USED AGAINST THE COALITION.  THE RULING 
PARTIES WILL MEET FEBRUARY 9 TO WEIGH THEIR OPTIONS.) 
 
HZDS VICE-CHAIR: REFERENDUM MOMENTUM SLOWING 
-------------------------------------------- 
3. (SBU) POLOFFS MET WITH HZDS VICE-CHAIRMAN SERGEJ KOZLIK 
THE DAY AFTER SCHUSTER'S ANNOUNCEMENT.  HE ESTIMATED ONLY 35 
PERCENT OF VOTERS WOULD PARTICIPATE, SAYING THE NEGATIVE 
MOMENTUM CREATED BY PRICE INCREASES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 
YEAR WOULD BE LOST BY APRIL.  AS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION, KOZLIK PREDICTED THAT VLADIMIR MECIAR, WHO WAS 
PUSHED BY HZDS LEADERSHIP AND REGIONAL STRUCTURES AS WELL AS 
PERSONAL AMBITION TO RUN, WOULD MAKE IT TO THE SECOND ROUND. 
HE SAID POLLING NUMBERS FOR EDUARD KUKAN AND IVAN GASPAROVIC 
ARE INFLATED.  KOZLIK CONFIRMED THAT HZDS PLANS MORE 
SYSTEMATIC AND VISIBLE OPPOSITION-POLITICS, SINCE SUPPORTERS 
HAVE CRITICIZED THE PARTY FOR SEEMING TOO CLOSE TO THE 
COALITION.  HOWEVER, THERE IS NO HOPE FOR COMMON GROUND WITH 
FELLOW OPPOSITION PARTY SMER.  HZDS SEES ITS ALLIES IN OTHER 
CENTER-RIGHT PARTIES, AND ITS MAJOR COMPETITORS IN THE 
NATIONALIST FACTIONS.  KOZLIK WILL RUN THE HZDS CAMPAIGN FOR 
JUNE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS, IN WHICH HE EXPECTS 
    TURNOUT TO BE VERY LOW. 
 
BREAKAWAY PARTIES: EXPERIENCE OF PEOPLE'S UNION 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
4. (SBU) POLOFFS ALSO MET WITH VOJTECH TKAC, CHAIR OF 
PEOPLE'S UNION (LU), WHICH SEPARATED FROM HZDS LAST YEAR. 
SUPPORT FOR LU IN POLLS HAS DECREASED TO BELOW ONE PERCENT 
SINCE THE SPLIT.  NONETHELESS, TKAC SAID 40-80 NEW MEMBERS 
JOIN THE PARTY WEEKLY.  HE EXPLAINED THAT LU HAS BEEN 
WORKING WITH JAN SLOTA'S SLOVAK NATIONALIST PARTY (SNS) FOR 
PRAGMATIC REASONS, NOT BECAUSE HE AGREES WITH NATIONALIST 
IDEOLOGY--BOTH LU AND SLOTA SUPPORT IVAN GASPAROVIC FOR 
PRESIDENT.  TKAC SAID MECIAR IS NOT A DEMOCRAT AND IS UNABLE 
TO MANAGE THE HZDS MPS.  IN ADDITION TO HIS PERSONAL 
AMBITION, MECIAR HOPES TO RAISE HZDS' PROFILE BY GETTING TO 
THE SECOND ROUND IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  BOTH TKAC 
AND KOZLIK PREDICTED THAT THE REFERENDUM ON EARLY ELECTIONS 
WOULD FAIL AND THAT THE DZURINDA GOVERNMENT WOULD PERSEVERE 
THROUGH THE END OF ITS FOUR-YEAR TERM. 
 
WOMEN IN POLITICS...NOT 
----------------------- 
5. (SBU) MP JOSEF HERIBAN (ANO) HAS PROPOSED MANDATING THAT 
EVERY THIRD CANDIDATE ON A PARTY LIST BE A WOMAN.  AT LUNCH 
HOSTED BY THE DCM, HERIBAN AND OTHER LEADERS DESCRIBED GAINS 
WOMEN HAVE MADE IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, NGO'S, AND THE ARTS, 
BUT SAID THEY LAGGED BEHIND IN PUBLIC OFFICE.  MP EVA CERNA 
(ANO) NOTED THE LACK OF A "WOMEN'S CAUCUS" IN PARLIAMENT, 
SINCE FEMALE MP'S FOLLOWED INSTRUCTIONS RATHER THAN THEIR 
CONSCIENCES.  SHE ADDED THE MEDIA WAS OFTEN MORE INTERESTED 
IN HER HAIRSTYLE THAN HER OPINIONS.  THERE ARE LARGE NUMBERS 
    OF WOMEN AT LOWER LEVELS IN MINISTRIES, BUT SINCE DECISIONS 
ARE MADE FROM THE TOP DOWN, THEY DO NOT ACTUALLY INFLUENCE 
POLICY.  SEVERAL PROFESSIONAL WOMEN HAVE COMMENTED TO POLOFF 
THAT SLOVAKIA'S GENEROUS MATERNITY BENEFITS (UP TO THREE 
YEARS OF GOVERNMENT-SUBSIDIZED LEAVE) MAKE WOMEN UNCOMPETIVE 
ON THE LABOR MARKET, AS EMPLOYERS ARE OPENLY UNWILLING TO 
HIRE WOMEN OF CHILD-BEARING AGE. 
WEISER 
 
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