US embassy cable - 86ANKARA9557

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 09557 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL/OADR 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, TU, IS 
SUBJECT: MFA SPECULATION ON MOTIVES FOR NEVE SHALOM 
         ATTACK 
 
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2. DURING A LUNCHEON ON SEPTEMBER 15, MFA OFFICE 
DIRECTOR FOR THE LEVANT AND NORTH AFRICA, SOLMAZ 
UNAYDIN, OBVIOUSLY STILL APPALLED AT THE WANTON 
SLAUGHTER, TOLD POLOFF THAT THE MFA IS AT A LOSS TO 
EXPLAIN THE MOTIVES FOR THE NEVE SHALOM MASSACRE. 
CONSIDERING THE PECULIAR AWFULNESS IN MUSLIM EYES OF 
KILLING PEOPLE AT PRAYER, SHE SAID, IT WAS HARD TO 
UNDERSTAND WHAT ANY ARAB OR OTHER MUSLIM GROUP COULD 
HAVE HOPED TO GAIN.  THE OFFICIAL ADMITTED THAT IT 
WAS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MILITANT GROUP COULD HAVE 
WISHED TO EMBROIL TURKEY IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT, 
BUT SHE BELIEVED THAT THIS WAS LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN 
ONLY A SUBSIDIARY MOTIVE.  SIMILARLY, SHE ARGUED THAT 
IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN PARTLY AN ATTEMPT TO SEPARATE 
TURKEY FROM THE UNITED STATES OR--LESS 
LIKELY--ISRAEL.  THIS WAS NOT THE MOST PROBABLE 
THEORY, SHE CONTENDED, BECAUSE THE PREDICTABLE NET 
EFFECT WOULD HAVE BEEN WHAT IN FACT TRANSPIRED, 
INCREASED COOPERATION AGAINST TERRORISM AMONG THE 
THREE NATIONS, AND A GREATER IMPETUS TOWARD SIMILAR 
COOPERATION BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE WESTERN EUROPEAN 
STATES. 
 
3. MRS. UNAYDIN BELIEVES THAT IT IS MOST SIGNIFICANT 
THAT WITHIN ONLY A FEW DAYS BOTH TURKEY AND PAKISTAN, 
THE MOST STABLE AND MODERATE MUSLIM ALLIES OF THE 
UNITED STATES IN THE REGION, SHOULD HAVE BEEN 
ATTACKED IN THIS WAY.  SHE SPECULATED THAT THE 
TERRORIST ACTS MIGHT HAVE BEEN DESIGNED TO EMBARRASS 
THE TWO STATES, AND TO CONSTITUTE SOME SORT OF 
WARNING AGAINST THEIR INVOLVEMENT IN THE PEACE 
PROCESS OR AGAINST ANY ACTIONS CONTRARY TO THE 
INTERESTS OF MILITANT MUSLIMS. 
 
4. WHILE SHE COULD NOT SAY WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE, 
UNAYDIN ASKED POLOFF WHETHER THE UNITED STATES HAD 
ANY BETTER INFORMATION THAN TURKEY ABOUT THE 
POSSIBILITY THAT ABU NIDAL HAD BEEN BEHIND THE TWO 
EVENTS.  THEY BOTH SEEMED TO BEAR HIS GROUP'S 
HALLMARKS: CAREFUL PLANNING AND EXECUTION. 
 
 
STRAUSZ-HUPE