US embassy cable - 04RANGOON172

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000172 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; CINPAC FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2014 
TAGS: PREF, PREL, PGOV, KISL, BM, Ethnics, Human Rights 
SUBJECT: UNHCR GAINS ACCESS TO FORMER CONFLICT AREAS IN 
EASTERN BURMA 
 
REF: RANGOON 89 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  On the heels of a cease-fire agreement 
between the Burmese regime and the insurgent Karen National 
Union (KNU), the UNHCR will sign an agreement with the GOB 
o/a February 13 allowing unprecedented access to former 
conflict areas along the Burma-Thailand border.  UNHCR plans 
to assess current conditions in Karen (Kayin) and Mon States 
and in Tenasserim (Tanintharyi) Division with a view to 
determining future needs for the hypothetical resettlement 
and repatriation of several hundred thousand refugees and 
IDPs.  UNHCR and the GOB, however, are anxious to quell 
rumors that repatriation or resettlement is imminent.  UNHCR, 
in fact, believes that conditions in the eastern border 
region are currently far from conducive for the return of 
displaced persons to their homes.  Meanwhile, in western 
Burma, resettlement of Muslim Rohingya refugees is nearing 
completion, but the SPDC continues to treat this 
long-suffering population as third-class citizens.  End 
Summary. 
 
An Agreement in Principle 
------------------------- 
 
2. (C) UNHCR representative Rajiv Kapur called on COM and P/E 
chief February 5 to explain recent developments that led to 
an "agreement in principle" with the GOB that will permit 
UNHCR unprecedented access to former conflict areas in Karen 
(Kayin) and Mon States and in Tenasserim Division.  Jean 
Marie Fakhouri, UNHCR Director for Asia and the Pacific, will 
visit Burma February 12-14 to sign the final agreement. 
 
3. (C) Kapur said that UNHCR has been pushing for access to 
the eastern border areas for the past three years.  The 
region, rife with insurgent activity for decades, has 
produced hundreds of thousands of internally displaced 
persons and refugees who have fled to neighboring Thailand. 
UNHCR has been anxious to assess conditions for eventual 
repatriation operations, but the SPDC has long considered 
much of the region highly sensitive and strictly off limits 
to diplomats, NGOs, and international organizations.  Indeed, 
Kayah State is still considered sensitive and will not be 
included in the UNHCR agreement. 
 
The Boss Weighs In 
------------------ 
 
4. (C) According to Kapur, key senior GOB officials are 
worried about rumors that UNHCR will soon close its Burma 
operations upon completion of resettlement activities in 
Rahkine (Arakan) State on the western border with Bangladesh. 
 Given the massive refugee problem on Burma's eastern 
borders, these officials are keen to keep UNHCR active in 
Burma and demonstrate GOB cooperation with the international 
community.  Rajiv confided to us that he did not discourage 
the rumors of a UNHCR pullout, because he believes that it is 
essential to get into the East, especially Mon and Karen 
States. 
 
5. (C) The issue of UNHCR access to the East came to a head 
in mid-January, following the SPDC's substantial progress in 
cease-fire talks with the rebel Karen National Union (KNU) 
(reftel).  Kapur said that the SPDC/GOB was split on allowing 
the UNHCR short-term access, with the Ministries of 
Immigration and Foreign Affairs in opposition due to their 
concerns over UNHCR's leading role on protection issues. 
According to Kapur, Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt made 
the call in favor of UNHCR and directed the Minister of Home 
Affairs to provide full support.  This was followed by a late 
night exchange of letters between the Home Ministry and 
UNHCR, culminating in an "agreement in principle."  However, 
Khin Nyunt has instructed his deputies to ensure that the 
arrangement with the UNHCR "does not complicate talks with 
the KNU." 
 
Don't Open the Floodgates - Yet 
------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Kapur stressed that UNHCR does not plan to establish 
field offices, as this might entice Thailand to prematurely 
"encourage" refugees to return to Burma (note: Kapur said 
that the RTG is already "spreading the word" that the UNHCR 
has an access deal with the GOB, giving some the false 
impression that there is already a repatriation agreement in 
place.  "We must rein in the Thai," said the UNHCR 
representative.  End note).  UNHCR's intentions are to send 
assessment teams into the eastern border region to establish 
a full understanding of current conditions, to determine 
future needs for hypothetical resettlement (protection 
monitoring, health centers, etc), and to develop a 
repatriation plan should the GOB pursue one at a later date. 
 
7. (C) The final agreement signed next week will give UNHCR 
full access to the region, including the ability to establish 
future operational bases in the population centers of Pa'an, 
Tavoy, Myawaddy, and Mudon.  Kapur said that UNHCR has built 
a detailed database on Thailand-based refugees and has a 
decent idea of where most repatriated refugees would intend 
to resettle.  However, he added, the situation is 
particularly complex because many Karen refugees originally 
fled from Irrawaddy (Ayeyarwady) and Bago Divisions (further 
west, now predominantly ethnic-Burman areas) in which the 
SPDC is highly unlikely to allow refugees to resettle. 
 
8. (C) Kapur said that repatriation and resettlement in the 
eastern region will be very difficult due to the large 
numbers involved and the extremely isolated and difficult 
terrain.  Furthermore, much of the territory suffers from the 
ravages of war and neglect, including substantial land mines. 
 
9. (C) According to Kapur, UNHCR will make an appeal to 
donors for a "supplementary operation" budget to conduct the 
UNHCR assessment in the eastern border areas.  He said the 
refugee organization wants "to start small and just get some 
people on the ground."  UNHCR has not yet developed a full 
budget, but he expects the initial appeal would be for about 
$1 million and would target current donors who already 
support operations in Rahkine (Arakan) State including the 
United States, the UK, and the Scandinavians. 
 
Meanwhile, on the Western Front... 
---------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) At the end of our meeting, Kapur briefly addressed 
the situation in Rahkine (Arakan) State.  He said that UNHCR 
hopes to tackle the Burma-Thailand border refugee problem 
with its experience in successfully repatriating over 236,000 
Muslim Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh to western Burma. 
He said the GOB has become increasingly flexible with the 
Rohingyas, noting that UNHCR has succeeded in obtaining 
residency cards and Burmese language instruction for 
returnees as a way to help meet requirements for future 
citizenship. Very few refugees who want to return to Burma, 
Kapur said, remain in Bangladesh. 
 
11. (C) However, Kapur acknowledged there has been no 
progress in establishing freedom of movement for the 
returnees and, overall, the GOB continues to treat them as 
third-class citizens.  "The SPDC wants to keep the Muslims in 
check, but they are in fact creating ripe conditions for 
extremists."  Furthermore, Kapur claimed, the GOB has been 
actively spreading propaganda among the predominantly Muslim 
returnee population, claiming that "the United States is 
carrying out a plot to create tensions between Buddhists and 
Muslims in Burma as a way to destabilize the country."  Kapur 
said that senior SPDC officials have been engaged in 
perpetuating these claims, including an unnamed Major General 
who recently visited northern Rahkine (Arakan) State. 
 
Comment: Rare Access 
-------------------- 
 
12. (C) At the end of February, we hope to join UNHCR on a 
three-day visit to the western border of Rahkine (Arakan) 
State for a closer view of repatriation operations.  However, 
our general view is that UNHCR has been doing important work 
in Burma, particularly on protection and other human rights 
issues.  We would encourage PRM and the Department to respond 
favorably to an appeal to support an assessment of the 
eastern border region.  Few outsiders have had access to 
these areas over past decades and UNHCR will have the 
opportunity to make important recommendations on the future 
of several hundred thousand displaced persons.  End comment. 
Martinez