US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU227

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000227 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS, LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY, NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, NP 
SUBJECT: NEPALESE STUDENT DEMONSTRATIONS  AGAINST THE 
MONARCHY: REPUBLICANISM OR RUSE? 
 
REF: A. A) KATHMANDU 122 
 
     B. B) KATHMANDU 193 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert K. Boggs for reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C)  The student wings of several Nepalese political 
parties continue their seventh week of protests against the 
King, adding calls for a republic to the near-daily pattern 
of effigy-burning, traffic disruption, and battles with the 
police.  Student leaders allege that their republican 
rhetoric has won the movement fresh support from disaffected, 
apolitical youth--a claim not necessarily borne out by 
increased turnout on the street.  General public opinion, and 
even the personal views of the student leaders, do not 
support the calls for a republic; however, the radical 
rhetoric has definitely drawn greater public attention to the 
student protest program.  While the student groups are trying 
to portray the protests as a spontaneous movement independent 
of party leadership and control, it remains clear that the 
student wings continue to receive political direction as well 
as financial support from their respective parties' Central 
Committees. The parties appear to be trying to use their 
student affiliates as proxies to pressure the Palace into 
replacing the current government with party leaders.  End 
Summary. 
 
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Student Protests Fill Final Week of Semester Break 
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2. (SBU)  Protests by the student wings of seven political 
parties continued on a near-daily basis for a sixth week 
(which, perhaps not coincidentally, coincide with the 
six-week semester break for university students), snarling 
traffic in Kathmandu, Biratnagar, Janakpur, Birgunj, Pokhara 
and Nepalgunj, and provoking clashes with baton-wielding 
police.  Police and security forces have been instructed to 
use force to suppress any protest or demonstration that 
includes anti-monarchical statements.  In addition to their 
rallies, the students have organized general strikes 
("bandhs"): 
--On January 26, student groups called for a general strike 
in Pokhara (popular tourist center in central Nepal) to 
protest the police suppression of a student debate the 
previous day regarding the relevance of the monarchy. 
--On January 29, student groups called a general strike in 
Lalitpur District (adjacent to Kathmandu) to protest police 
entering a campus dormitory the previous day to arrest 
demonstrators. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Most of the protests are estimated to draw a few 
thousand participants.  (Note: When other party members 
joined the students' protest on January 30, numbers swelled 
to an estimated 8,000-10,000).  Students are routinely 
detained in the course of such protests--and, just as 
routinely released within a few hours, according to one of 
the movement's leaders.  A student leader reported to us that 
those detained are treated courteously while in police 
custody and that although some of the protesters have 
sustained minor injuries during clashes with police, none has 
required long-term medical care. 
 
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Republican Rhetoric Draws Attention, Ire 
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4.  (SBU) While the students have been able to keep their 
members on the streets for six weeks, they have been less 
successful in articulating the aims of their programs.  The 
initial agenda was to press the King to limit himself to the 
role played by the previous king after 1990 of a 
constitutional monarch aloof from politics.  More recently 
this has been radically modified to include calls for the 
abolition of the monarchy (Ref B).  When  asked to identify 
the reason for this change, Gagan Thapa, General Secretary of 
the Nepal Student Union (affiliated with the Nepali Congress 
party) claimed it was a spontaneous outburst, asserting that 
"now the streets are determining the agenda" of the protests, 
not the political parties.  This newly radical rhetoric, 
whatever its genesis, has helped generate greater public 
attention to the flagging movement, ensuring it a prominent 
place in daily headlines and local news broadcasts.  Thapa 
claimed that since adding the anti-monarchical theme, numbers 
at the rallies have swelled to include politically 
unaffiliated and disaffected youths.  However, despite 
Thapa's claim that the student protest programs are 
independent of the political parties, Thapa, when pressed, 
admitted that the student groups receive financial support 
from their respective parties and that the parties retain the 
power to appoint and dismiss student union leadership.  Other 
savvy political observers report that the leaders of the main 
parties continue to prescribe the rhetoric and tactics of 
their student wings. 
 
5.  (SBU) The students' anti-monarchial rhetoric has captured 
the attention of the Government of Nepal (GON) and security 
forces.  Security forces, under GON direction, have been 
ordered to suppress any rally in which participants defame or 
otherwise question the role of the monarchy.  (Note: There is 
a legal prohibition against criticism of the King).  Thus 
anti-King slogans and banners are a sure-fire way to provoke 
the police into a baton charge--thereby ensuring sensational 
photos and sympathetic headlines in the next day's press. 
 
6.  (C)  It is difficult to fathom, however, whether this 
new-found antipathy to the monarchy is an indication of 
actual popular sentiment or political expediency.  Thapa's 
own responses, when questioned about his personal feelings 
toward the institution, reflected a certain ad hoc 
ambivalence.  The monarchy is primarily important as a 
counterweight to Indian influence in the country, he said; a 
Nepal without a king might quickly find itself subsumed by 
its large neighbor, he speculated.  On the other hand, he 
suggested, the traumatic events of June 2001, when the 
then-Crown Prince killed the King, the Queen, himself and 
seven other members of the royal family, have led many 
Nepalis to ponder a previously inconceivable question: is the 
monarchy really essential to Nepal's national identity and 
survival?  The question has gained particular currency among 
members of the younger generation, he claimed, who 
increasingly believe they owe no loyalty to a system that has 
failed to provide them sufficient educational and employment 
prospects for the future.  But whatever its provenance, the 
students--and their elders in the parties' Central 
Committees--obviously believe the anti-monarchial theme has 
captured public and Palace attention, and are thus unlikely 
to tone down their provocative rhetoric.  NSU's Thapa pointed 
out proudly that the numbers of demonstrators had swelled 
since adopting the anti-king slogans, compared with the 
anemic turnout attracted to earlier rallies.  The student 
movement "had to do something to break the apathy of the 
people," Thapa said.  Controversial slogans against the king 
and the press coverage they generate, he indicated, seem to 
provide the winning formula. 
 
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Parties Latch On 
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7.  (SBU) The adult leadership of the five protesting 
parties, stung by the King's public accusations that they 
have lost popular support and hoping to capitalize on the 
attention generated by their surrogate student wings, joined 
forces with the youth groups on January 30 in a demonstration 
against the Government (Ref B).  In latching on to the 
students' movement, party leaders have made a perfunctory 
effort to emphasize they are not calling for an end to the 
monarchy, but rather for the "reactivation" of constitutional 
monarchy.  In their discussions with us, they attempt to 
portray the student movement as an irresistible tide that 
they can do little to stem and that the King would be well 
advised to heed.  Not surprisingly, they suggest the King's 
immediate compliance with their call for an all-party 
government and/or revival of Parliament is the best way to 
turn back this "spontaneous" cry from the streets. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C)  It is likely that many young people do not feel the 
same reverence for the institution of the monarchy, 
especially after the grisly, highly publicized events of June 
2001, as their elders.  It is also likely that many young 
people feel frustrated by the lack of opportunity available 
to them and may perceive the protracted political deadlock 
between the parties and the Palace as partially responsible. 
That said, it is difficult to determine if impatience with 
the current situation necessarily translates into a genuine, 
deep-seated desire for radical change.  Despite their claims 
that "the street" is determining the agenda of their 
movement, the student leaders' obvious dependence upon their 
parent parties for money, appointments, and political 
legitimacy suggests they are receiving more direction--and 
approbation--from the senior political leadership than either 
is willing to acknowledge.  Despite their disclaimers, the 
parties seem perfectly willing to exploit for their own 
purposes whatever momentum their student wings' movement can 
generate.  Unable to reach an understanding with the King 
through other means, the parties appear to be tacitly 
abetting their students' anti-monarchial campaign--while 
maintaining a facade of deniability--as a cynical ruse to 
pressure the King.   End Comment. 
MALINOWSKI