US embassy cable - 00HARARE6677

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 006677 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ZI, SA 
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY MEETS WITH ZIMBABWE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06677  01 OF 03  291400Z 
OPPOSITION LEADER 
 
REFTEL: HARARE 6584 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: ASSISTANT SECRETARY SUSAN E. RICE MET 
MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI ON NOVEMBER 16.  TSVANGIRAI OFFERED FOUR 
 
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SCENARIOS UNDER WHICH THE CURRENT POLITICAL CRISIS COULD 
UNFOLD.  HE BELIEVES A TRANSITIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT IS 
THE BEST WAY OUT OF THE CRISIS PITTING THE PEOPLE 
AGAINST THEIR UNPOPULAR LEADER.  MASS ACTION WILL BE 
CONSIDERED INITIALLY AT THE MDC'S NATIONAL COUNCIL 
MEETING NOVEMBER 24.  MASS ACTION WOULD BE INTENDED TO 
PRESSURE PRESIDENT MUGABE TO RESIGN.  THE MDC 
UNDERSTANDS THE SERIOUS RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH MASS 
ACTION, TSVANGIRAI PROFESSED, AND RECOGNIZES THAT IT IS 
IN THE COUNTRY'S BEST INTEREST TO AVOID BLOODSHED. 
EVERYONE IS FOCUSED ON SEEING MUGABE GO, BUT IT WILL 
PROBABLY TAKE A CONVERGENCE OF OPPOSITION FROM ZANU-PF, 
THE MILITARY, AND REGIONAL LEADERS TO FORCE HIM OUT. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) ON NOVEMBER 16, ASSISTANT SECRETARY SUSAN E. 
RICE, HER DELEGATION, AMBASSADOR MCDONALD, DCM, AND 
POLOFF (NOTETAKER) HAD A BREAKFAST MEETING WITH MDC 
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI.  TSVANGIRAI WAS ACCOMPANIED 
BY MDC NATIONAL CHAIRMAN ISAAC MATONGO. 
 
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TSVANGIRAI LOOKS INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL 
 
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-------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) TSVANGIRAI BEGAN BY SAYING THAT HE SEES THREE 
FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS IN ZIMBABWE: LAWLESSNESS, THE LAND 
QUESTION, AND THE ECONOMY, AND EMPHASIZED THAT THE 
ECONOMY IS THE MOST DIRE PROBLEM.  HE ALSO STATED THAT 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) IS TRYING TO POLARIZE 
THE POLITICAL PLAYERS IN THE COUNTRY.  THE MDC LEADER 
SEES FOUR POTENTIAL SCENARIOS EMERGING FROM THE CURRENT 
POLITICAL CRISIS: 1) THE PEOPLE WAIT 18 MONTHS TO VOTE 
MUGABE OUT--THIS IS THE MOST CONSTITUTIONAL, BUT LEAST 
LIKELY SCENARIO.  2) THERE IS AN ACCELERATED, BUT STILL 
CONSTITUTIONAL, PROCESS WHEREBY MUGABE RESIGNS OR IS 
EASED OUT AT THE DECEMBER ZANU-PF CONGRESS.  THIS IS NOT 
VERY LIKELY EITHER SINCE MUGABE HAS OUSTED THE 
PROVINCIAL PARTY EXECUTIVES THAT MIGHT CHALLENGE HIS 
INTENTION TO RUN AGAIN IN 2002.  3) MASS ACTION IS 
UNDERTAKEN, FORCING MUGABE TO LEAVE THE SCENE EARLY. 
TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THIS OPTION MUST BE CAREFULLY 
 
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CONSIDERED, AND HE ASKED RHETORICALLY: DO WE WANT TO 
PUSH OUT AN ELECTED PRESIDENT BEFORE HIS TERM IS UP?  4) 
AN ARMY COUP THAT REMOVES MUGABE, POSSIBLY WITH A GREAT 
DEAL OF BLOODSHED, FROM WHICH IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT 
FOR ZIMBABWE TO RECOVER. 
 
4.  (C) IDEALLY, TSVANGIRAI CONTINUED, THE MDC WOULD 
LIKE TO SEE A TRANSITIONAL ARRANGEMENT FOR THE NEXT TWO 
YEARS WHERE ZANU-PF REMAINED IN CONTROL OF THE 
GOVERNMENT BUT BROUGHT IN MDC MINISTERS--ESSENTIALLY, A 
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COALITION GOVERNMENT.  THE GOAL OF A TRANSITIONAL 
GOVERNMENT WOULD BE TO ARREST THE ECONOMIC DECLINE, 
RESTORE INTERNATIONAL CONFIDENCE IN ZIMBABWE, AND 
ESTABLISH THE CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS FOR PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTIONS.  WHEN ASKED ABOUT AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION 
FIRST TO MAKE A COALITION GOVERNMENT MORE FEASIBLE, 
TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT A CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM PROCESS 
 
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SHOULD BE BROAD-BASED AND WELL-CONSIDERED. 
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TIME TO GO THROUGH 
THAT PROCESS NOW.  HE SAID THE ECONOMY IS THE PRIORITY 
ISSUE BECAUSE CONFIDENCE MUST BE RESTORED IN IT BEFORE 
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2002.  IT DOESN'T MAKE 
SENSE TO TALK ABOUT THE CONSTITUTION WHILE THE PEOPLE 
ARE SUFFERING. 
 
--------------------------- 
MASS ACTION IS ON THE TABLE 
--------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) THE OPPOSITION LEADER WENT ON TO SAY THAT THE 
COUNTRY CANNOT CONTINUE AS IT HAS FOR ANOTHER SIX 
MONTHS.  WE KNOW THAT ZIMBABWE IS NOT LIKE YUGOSLAVIA, 
BUT THE PEOPLE ARE DEMANDING CHANGE BEFORE THE SITUATION 
GETS WORSE, HE PROFESSED.  UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, 
THE MDC WOULD WAIT UNTIL 2002 FOR CHANGE, BUT THE 
ECONOMIC DECLINE IS SO STEEP THAT IF IT WAITS THAT LONG, 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1865 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00 
      EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    FRB-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 
      SAS-00   SWCI-00    /012W 
                  ------------------A54E56  291401Z /38 
O 291359Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7739 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 006677 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/10 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ZI, SA 
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY MEETS WITH ZIMBABWE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06677  02 OF 03  291401Z 
OPPOSITION LEADER 
 
THERE WILL BE "NOTHING TO VOTE FOR" BY THE TIME THE 
ELECTION ARRIVES.  THE MDC'S NATIONAL COUNCIL , AT LEAST 
INITIALLY, WILL MEET NOVEMBER 24 TO CONSIDER MASS 
ACTION.  IF THE EXECUTIVE DECIDES TO CONDUCT A MASS 
ACTION, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF GENERAL 
STRIKE TO BEGIN IN MID-DECEMBER WHEN CHILDREN ARE HOME 
FROM SCHOOL AND BUSINESSES BEGIN TO CLOSE ANYWAY FOR THE 
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.  THIS WOULD MINIMIZE THE ECONOMIC 
IMPACT ON THE POPULATION, TSVANGIRAI BELIEVES.  (NOTE: 
THE MDC'S NATIONAL COUNCIL CANCELLED PLANS FOR MASS 
ACTION AT ITS NOVEMBER 24 MEETING.  SEE REFTEL.  END 
NOTE.)  HE SAID THE MDC UNDERSTANDS THE MAGNITUDE AND 
SERIOUSNESS OF MASS ACTION, AND IT HAS TRIED TO POSTPONE 
IT FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE, BUT THE POPULAR SENTIMENT IS 
TO DO IT.  A GENERAL STAY-AWAY IS PREFERABLE TO 
CONFRONTATION SINCE IT IS NOT IN THE COUNTRY'S BEST 
INTEREST TO HAVE VIOLENCE OR BLOODSHED. 
 
6.  (C) ON THE GOZ'S REACTION TO A MASS DEMONSTRATION IN 
HARARE, TSVANGIRAI BELIEVED THE ARMY WOULDN'T HESITATE 
TO SHOOT A LOT OF PEOPLE.  HE THOUGHT ITS REACTION WOULD 
BE LESS SEVERE IN OTHER CITIES LIKE BULAWAYO AND MUTARE, 
WHERE THE NUMBER OF TROOPS IS MUCH FEWER AND THEIR 
LOYALTY TO MUGABE MORE QUESTIONABLE.  ON THE OTHER HAND, 
HE SEES THE MILITARY AS DIVIDED.  MUGABE HAS 
APPROPRIATED THE TOP BRASS FOR HIS OWN ENDS, AND THEY 
ARE LOYAL TO HIM.  HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE MILITARY'S 
LOWER RANKS DO NOT SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT, TSVANGIRAI 
CLAIMED. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  06677  02 OF 03  291401Z 
 
--------------------- 
HOW TO GET MUGABE OUT 
--------------------- 
 
7.  (C) THE MILITARY IS ONE OF THE THREE MAJOR 
INFLUENCES ON MUGABE, TSVANGIRAI CONTINUED.  THE OTHER 
TWO ARE ZANU-PF AND REGIONAL LEADERS.  IF MUGABE IS TO 
BE PRESSURED TO LEAVE THE SCENE, ALL THREE MUST TURN 
AGAINST HIM, THE OPPOSITION LEADER DECLARED.  WHEN ASKED 
WHAT ELSE MIGHT INDUCE MUGABE TO STEP DOWN, TSVANGIRAI 
SAID THE PRESIDENT WILL DO SO ONLY AFTER HE HAS HAD HIS 
REVENGE AGAINST THE WHITES AND ONLY AFTER HE HAS REIGNED 
IN ZANU-PF DISSIDENTS AND UNIFIED HIS PARTY.  MUGABE IS 
A VINDICTIVE PERSON, TSVANGIRAI PROFESSED.  FOR ITS 
PART, THE MDC RECOGNIZES MUGABE AS THE NATION'S FIRST 
LEADER AND A VERY IMPORTANT ONE IN ITS HISTORY.  THE MDC 
WON'T ENGAGE IN RETRIBUTION AGAINST MUGABE AND HIS 
SUPPORTERS, TSVANGIRAI HINTED, BECAUSE "WE CAN'T FOCUS 
ON THE PAST IF WE ARE TO MOVE FORWARD."  WHILE MUGABE IS 
PRESIDENT, THE MDC LEADERSHIP WON'T MAKE PERSONAL 
COMMENTS ABOUT HIM, AS THAT WOULD JUST INFLAME THE 
SITUATION. 
 
------------------------ 
ROLE OF REGIONAL LEADERS 
------------------------ 
 
8.  (C) THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY ASKED THE MDC LEADER 
ABOUT THE ROLE REGIONAL LEADERS COULD PLAY IN RESOLVING 
THE SITUATION.  TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT AFTER INITIALLY 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  06677  02 OF 03  291401Z 
SHOWING AMBIVALENCE TOWARD ZIMBABWE, SOUTH AFRICAN 
PRESIDENT MBEKI HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO TALK MORE FIRMLY 
AND IS SHOWING SIGNS HE WILL NO LONGER TOLERATE THE 
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE.  TSVANGIRAI MENTIONED THAT ON HIS 
LAST VISIT TO SOUTH AFRICA, HE MET WITH FORMER PRESIDENT 
MANDELA--WHO STILL EXERTS GREAT INFLUENCE IN SOUTH 
AFRICA, HE STATED--AND URGED THE LEADER TO INTERVENE IN 
ZIMBABWE.  HE DID NOT RECEIVE A FIRM COMMITMENT FROM 
MANDELA, HOWEVER, AND DID NOT SEE MBEKI.  ZAMBIAN 
PRESIDENT CHILUBA HAS BEEN DISTANT WITH THE MDC.. 
 
------------------------ 
MDC'S VIEW ON LAND ISSUE 
------------------------ 
 
9.  (C) ON THE LAND ISSUE, TSVANGIRAI ACKNOWLEDGED THAT 
LAND REFORM WAS "UNFINISHED" BUSINESS AND MUST BE 
ADDRESSED SERIOUSLY BY ANY GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE. 
HOWEVER, EQUITY, LEGALITY AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY MUST BE 
KEYSTONES TO ANY SUCCESSFUL LAND REFORM PROGRAM.  THE 
MDC SUPPORTS THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LAND COMMISSION TO 
OVERSEE THE REDISTRIBUTION OF LAND.  THE MDC ALSO SEES 
THE 1998 DONORS CONFERENCE AS THE STARTING POINT FOR 
LAND REFORM, AND IT WOULD SUPPORT THE UNDP LAND 
INITIATIVE, THE OPPOSITION LEADER STATED.  TSVANGIRAI 
SAID THAT WHEN HE WAS IN THE UK RECENTLY, HE TOLD THE 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1866 
 
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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00 
      EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    FRB-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 
      SAS-00   SWCI-00    /012W 
                  ------------------A54E5D  291401Z /38 
O 291359Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7740 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 006677 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/10 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ZI, SA 
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY MEETS WITH ZIMBABWE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06677  03 OF 03  291401Z 
OPPOSITION LEADER 
 
BRITISH TO REFRAIN FROM MAKING PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON LAND 
REFORM IN ZIMBABWE AND TO USE ITS INFLUENCE BEHIND THE 
SCENES TO RESOLVE THE PROBLEM. 
 
------------------------------------ 
ZIMBABWE NEEDS A PEACEFUL TRANSITION 
------------------------------------ 
 
10.  (C) THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE 
OF A PEACEFUL POLITICAL TRANSITION TO THE OPPOSITION 
LEADER.  THE USG SEES HUGE RISKS--WITH FEW, IF ANY, 
UPSIDES--TO MASS ACTION, AND URGED THE MDC TO MANAGE THE 
POLITICAL TRANSITION CAREFULLY.  WE HAVE URGED THE GOZ 
NOT TO USE LETHAL FORCE ON DEMONSTRATORS, AND WE URGE 
THE OPPOSITION NOT TO GET IN A SITUATION WHERE LETHAL 
FORCE MIGHT BE USED, THE SECRETARY SAID.  THE USG ALSO 
WANTS TO ENCOURAGE THE MDC TO ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE WITH 
MODERATES IN ZANU-PF, EVEN IF PRIVATELY.  A/S RICE 
AFFIRMED THE USG'S WILLINGNESS TO FACILITATE SUCH 
CONTACTS, IF DESIRED.  SHE ALSO PUSHED THE MDC TO 
PARTICIPATE IN THE GOVERNANCE OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH ITS 
SUBSTANTIAL PRESENCE IN PARLIAMENT, AND LAMENTED THE MDC 
FAILURE TO ENGAGE IN THE PREPARATION OF THE BUDGET, 
DESPITE THE FINANCE MINISTER'S SOLICITATION OF MDC 
INPUT.  SUCH ENGAGEMENT, RICE ARGUED, WOULD SHOW THAT 
THE MDC IS A SERIOUS AND CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO ZANU- 
PF.  TSVANGIRAI, WHEN PRESSED, RELUCTANTLY TOOK THIS 
POINT ON BOARD. 
 
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11.  (C) COMMENT: TSVANGIRAI WAS FRANK, CONFIDENT AND 
RELAXED.  HOWEVER, HE DID NOT CONVINCE US THAT THE MDC 
HAS A CLEAR OR WELL-THOUGHT-OUT PLAN FOR MASS ACTION OR 
WHAT IT WOULD ACCOMPLISH.  HIS COMMENTS SUGGESTED THE 
MDC IS PINNING HOPE ON INTERNAL ZANU-PF MACHINATIONS TO 
FORCE MUGABE FROM POWER.  HIS PUBLIC APPROVAL OF FINANCE 
MINISTER MAKONI'S BUDGET, AS REPORTED IN THE NOVEMBER 17 
"THE DAILY NEWS," MAY BE AN INDICATION OF HIS 
UNDERSTANDING OF THE NEED TO DEMONSTRATE CREDIBLE 
POLITICAL LEADERSHIP.  TSVANGIRAI IS CLEARLY UNDER 
PRESSURE FROM THE PUBLIC TO LEAD A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT. 
OTHER INTERLOCUTORS HAVE TOLD US THAT IF HE DOES NOT DO 
SO SOON, HE HIMSELF MAY BE FORCED FROM THE PARTY 
LEADERSHIP.  NOW THAT THE QUESTION OF MASS ACTION IS 
MOOT FOR THE TIME-BEING, IT WILL BE UP TO TSVANGIRAI TO 
CHANNEL THE PEOPLE'S, AND HIS OWN PARTY MEMBERS', 
FRUSTRATION INTO CONSTRUCTIVE CHANGE.  IF TSVANGIRAI CAN 
DO THAT, HIS POSITION WILL BE STRENGTHENED IMMEASURABLY, 
BOTH HERE AND ABROAD.  END COMMENT. 
 
12.  (U) A/S RICE HAS CLEARED THIS MESSAGE. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
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