US embassy cable - 00HARARE6663

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 006663 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS, EB/IFD/ODF, EB/TPP/ODC 
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER AND BARAK HOFFMAN 
USDOC FOR 2037/ERIC HENDERSON 
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06663  01 OF 03  290907Z 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/08 
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, PREL, EAGR, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: A/S RICE MEETS WITH FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA 
MAKONI 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD, REASON 1.5 (B), (D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: ON NOVEMBER 16, A/S RICE, AMBASSADORS 
RENDER AND MCDONALD, AND ECONOFF (NOTETAKER), MET WITH 
FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI FOR AN HONEST AND WIDE- 
RANGING 75 MINUTE DISCUSSION.  TAKING PLACE ONLY A FEW 
HOURS BEFORE THE MINISTER PRESENTED HIS FIRST BUDGET TO 
THE PARLIAMENT AND THE NATION, THE MEETING CENTERED ON 
MAKONI'S EXPERIENCE DEALING WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE, AND 
HIS IN-DEPTH SUGGESTIONS AND ADVICE ON HOW TO APPROACH 
MUGABE AND BRING ABOUT DESIRED RESULTS.  HE ALSO SHARED 
HIS OUTLOOK AND VIEWS ON SOME OF THE MAJOR ISSUES 
CONFRONTING THE GOVERNMENT AND RULING PARTY; AND HIS 
EXPECTATION THAT MUGABE WOULD EMERGE AS THE PARTY'S 
CANDIDATE FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
THOUGH THE SURFACE IS DAUNTING; DIALOGUE, 
AND DEALS, ARE POSSIBLE 
----------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) AFTER INTRODUCTIONS AND OPENING EXCHANGES, MAKONI 
CAME QUICKLY TO HIS OBSERVATIONS AND JUDGEMENTS.  THE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06663  01 OF 03  290907Z 
ECONOMY IS BAD AND THIS IS DUE TO THE POLITICAL CRISIS 
THE COUNTRY IS EXPERIENCING, HE TOLD US.  WHILE THE 
SURFACE APPEARANCE PROVIDED BY PRESIDENT MUGABE IS 
DAUNTING AND VERY NEGATIVE, UNDERNEATH THERE IS THE 
POTENTIAL FOR FLEXIBILITY AND RATIONAL DIALOGUE AND THE 
REAL POSSIBILITY TO EFFECT POSITIVE CHANGE. HE TOLD US 
THAT A WAY OUT OF THE CURRENT DILEMMA IS BEING SOUGHT BY 
THE PRESIDENT, AND CITED AS EVIDENCE BOTH HIS AND 
NKOSANNA MOYO'S APPOINTMENT TO CABINET.  "THIS WOULD 
NEVER HAVE HAPPENED IF THE NEED FOR CHANGE WAS NOT 
RECOGNIZED BY PRESIDENT MUGABE."  MAKONI FLATLY STATED 
THAT THOSE WHO SAY THERE CAN BE NO POSITIVE CHANGE UNTIL 
PRESIDENT MUGABE IS OFF THE SCENE ARE WRONG.  WHILE THE 
FINANCE MINISTER PERSONALLY BELIEVED MUGABE HAD 
OVERSTAYED HIS TERM ("HIS LEAVING IS OVERDUE"), THE 
PRESIDENT WILL ENGAGE IN STRAIGHT TALK AND SERIOUSLY 
CONSIDER AN OFFERED DEAL THAT HE SEES AS FAVORING HIM. 
"MUGABE IS A MAN OF STRONG VIEWS", MAKONI POINTED OUT, 
"AND SO ONE NEEDS TO RELATE TO HIM IN THE SAME WAY." 
"THIS IS HOW I HAVE GOTTEN RESULTS", HE ADMITTED, CITING 
THE EXAMPLE OF THE DEVALUATION HE WON APPROVAL FOR BY 
LAYING OUT THE MOVE AS A REAL WORLD NECESSITY WHICH THE 
LONGER IGNORED WOULD ONLY CAUSE GREATER POLITICAL HARM TO 
MUGABE ANDQ RULING PARTY. 
 
3.  (C) FURTHER CLARIFYING THE POINT, MAKONI CAREFULLY 
EXPLAINED THAT MUGABE VIEWS EVERYTHING THROUGH THE OPTIC 
OF WHETHER IT THREATENS HIS TENURE.  THEREFORE, ANY 
PROPOSAL MUST BE PACKAGED TO EMPHASIZE BENEFITS FOR 
MUGABE.  IF GAINS CAN BE RATIONALLY LAID OUT AND ARGUED 
FOR, PAIN CAN BE SOLD, HE TOLD US.  THE FINANCE MINISTER 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  06663  01 OF 03  290907Z 
CITED OTHER STEPS HE HAS TAKEN WITH HIS PORTFOLIO (FOR 
EXAMPLE, PERSONNEL AND SPENDING CUTBACKS IN THE 2001 
BUDGET) AS PAINFUL STEPS HE HAS SOLD AS NECESSARY IF 
MUGABE WISHED TO RUN HIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN A 
DOMESTIC ENVIRONMENT THAT HAD AT LEAST STARTED TO TURN 
AROUND.  "REMEMBER", HE TOLD US IN A STATEMENT 
APPROACHING THE ZEN, "WHAT APPEARS AND NOT WHAT IS, IS 
WHAT IS IMPORTANT WHEN DEALING WITH MUGABE." 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
MUGABE'S LAND OPTIC, AND CONSPIRACY IN GENERAL 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4.  (C) RESPONDING TO A/S RICE'S AND THE AMBASSADOR'S 
QUESTION ON THE CURRENT ECONOMIC DANGER FACING THE 
COUNTRY AND THE PRESIDENT'S RECOGNITION OF IT, THE 
FINANCE MINISTER SHARED WITH US HIS PERCEPTION OF 
MUGABE'S VIEW OF THE LAND ISSUE, AND ALSO THE DARK FORCES 
ARRAYED AGAINST HIM IN GENERAL.  MAKONI BEGAN HIS 
EXPLANATION BY STATING THAT THE PRESIDENT WAS AWARE OF 
THE ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES AND UNHAPPINESS OF THE 
POPULACE.  "HOWEVER, HE SEES IT AS CAUSED BY A CONSPIRACY 
AIMED AGAINST HIM, AND SO HE WORKS OFF THE WRONG 
PREMISE," HE TOLD US.  AFTER THE REFERENDUM DEFEAT, AND 
WHEN MUGABE SAW THE FOOTAGE OF WHITE FARMERS HANDING OVER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ0684 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00 
      SMEC-00  CTME-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   ITC-01   LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00 
      SS-00    STR-00   T-00     USIE-00  FMP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------A52A9D  290907Z /38 
P 290902Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7732 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
USDOC WASHDC 
NSC WASHDC 
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 006663 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS, EB/IFD/ODF, EB/TPP/ODC 
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER AND BARAK HOFFMAN 
USDOC FOR 2037/ERIC HENDERSON 
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06663  02 OF 03  290907Z 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/08 
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, PREL, EAGR, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: A/S RICE MEETS WITH FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA 
MAKONI 
 
CONTRIBUTION CHECKS TO THE MDC, THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS 
BECAME THE ENEMY, WITH THE MDC ITS FRONT.  OVER PAST 
MONTHS, THE ENEMY CAMP HAS GROWN. IT IS NOW NO LONGER THE 
WHITE FARMERS ALONE, BUT INCLUDES: ALL FORMER RHODESIANS 
STILL IN ZIMBABWE (I.E., URBAN WHITES); ALL ELITE NON- 
ZANU-PF-PARTY BLACKS (AGAIN MAINLY URBAN); THE SO-CALLED 
'ZIMBA-BOERS' (FORMER RHODESIANS LIVING IN SOUTH AFRICA); 
AND, SINCE THE ELECTION, ALL URBAN BLACKS.  ALL THE 
FOREGOING FORM THE "FIFTH COLUMN", MUGABE'S PEJORATIVE 
TERM FOR THOSE ARRAYED AGAINST HIM.  IN ADDITION, OF 
COURSE, THERE ARE THE EVER-PRESENT FOREIGN IMPERIALISTS 
LED BY GREAT BRITAIN, INCLUDING THE U.S., WHOSE SIZE IN 
THE PERCEIVED-ENEMY FIRMAMENT VARIES DEPENDING ON THE 
TOPIC AND TIMING.  FOR OUR SAKE THE MINISTER FURTHER 
CLARIFIED THE VIEW OF THE U.S. AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL: 
"YOU ARE USUALLY SEEN AS GENERALLY ENLIGHTENED, AND 
SEEKING CONSTRUCTIVE ENGAGEMENT," HE STATED. 
 
5.  (C) RETURNING TO THE LAND ISSUE, MAKONI EXPLAINED 
THAT MUGABE HAS FIRMLY DECIDED THAT GOING THE RATIONAL, 
MEASURED ROUTE FOR LAND REFORM WILL FAIL HIM; BECAUSE THE 
FIFTH COLUMN FORCES WILL HIDE BEHIND THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY AND THWART OR STOP THE RESETTLEMENT PROCESS. 
MUGABE BELIEVES THIS IS WHAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06663  02 OF 03  290907Z 
SEPTEMBER 1998 LAND REFORM CONFERENCE, HIS ENEMIES 
CONTROLLING THE DONORS AND CAUSING THEM TO RENEGE ON 
THEIR PROMISES OF ASSISTANCE AND FUNDING.  "MUGABE WILL 
NEVER SEE OR ADMIT THAT ZIMBABWE ALSO FAILED IN 
FULFILLING ITS PLEDGES," MAKONI STATED, "JUST AS HE WILL 
NEVER ADMIT THAT THERE IS NO RULE OF LAW NOW IN ZIMBABWE 
OR THAT HIS INVASION DIRECTIVE WAS WRONG."  "DISCUSSING 
THAT TOPIC IS USELESS," HE CONTINUED, "AND YOU MUST 
PRESENT YOUR OR THE UNDP'S PROPOSAL IN A NON-THREATENING 
MANNER THAT ALSO CONTAINS THE GOLDEN RING OF POTENTIAL 
SUCCESS AT THE 2002 POLLS."  "IF YOU COME UP WITH A 
CREDIBLE PROGRAM THAT MEETS MUGABE'S GOALS, YOU CAN REACH 
AGREEMENT," MAKONI TOLD US.  A/S RICE STATED THAT SHE TOO 
BELIEVED THAT THE UNDP INITIATIVE OFFERED THE BEST CHANCE 
OF CONSTRUCTIVE MOVEMENT FORWARD, CAUTIONING THAT A LOT 
OF WORK HAD TO BE DONE TO REALIZE GOALS AND BENEFITS, AND 
THE COORDINATION OF ALL THE DONORS. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
THE DECEMBER CONGRESS AND THE 2002 CANDIDATE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) IN RESPONSE TO AN A/S RICE QUESTION ON THE FUTURE 
OF PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE MINISTER OFFERED A NUMBER OF 
OBSERVATIONS.  HE STARTED BY RELATING THAT HE HAD KNOWN 
MUGABE SINCE HIS EARLY DAYS IN POWER, AND FOUND HIM OF 
LATE TO BE MUCH TOUGHER TO READ.  "MUGABE HAS BECOME MUCH 
MORE PRICKLY, AND ONE HAS TO HAVE ONE'S ARGUMENTS MUCH 
BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRONGLY PRESENTED TO WIN THE DAY." 
MAKONI CONTINUED THAT HIS STRONG GUT FEELING IS THAT 
"MUGABE WILL SOLDIER ON."  THE ISSUE OF SUCCESSION WILL 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  06663  02 OF 03  290907Z 
SURELY COME UP AT THE DECEMBER CONGRESS (EVEN THOUGH IT 
IS NOT ON THE AGENDA), AND MUGABE ALONE WILL DECIDE THE 
ISSUE AS THERE IS NO LOBBY STRONG ENOUGH, OR WILLING 
ENOUGH, TO CARRY THE DAY CONTRARY TO THE PRESIDENT'S 
WISHES.  "EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE YOUNG ELEMENTS IN THE 
PARTY WHO WANT HIM TO GO," HE STATED, "THIS IS COUNTERED 
BY THE OLD GUARD WHO WHISPER IN BOB'S EAR THAT 'YOU ARE A 
YOUNG OLD MAN'." 
 
------------------------------- 
THE CONGO AND DOMESTIC POLITICS 
------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) THE SESSION DREW TO A CLOSE WITH THE FINANCE 
MINISTER ASKING THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY THE QUESTION, 
"WHAT CAN WE DO HERE TO BETTER THINGS IN YOUR VIEW, FOR 
EXAMPLE IN THE CONGO?"  A/S RICE RESPONDED BY OUTLINING 
IN GENERAL TERMS A POSSIBLE PATH FORWARD THAT CALLED FOR 
GREATER COOPERATION BETWEEN THE EXTERNAL FORCES THAT HAVE 
MUCH AT STAKE AND CAN BRING PRESSURE TO BEAR.  THE GOAL 
IS ADHERENCE TO THE LUSAKA ACCORD; AND WITHDRAWAL OF THE 
FOREIGN FORCES.  A/S RICE URGED DIALOGUE WITH RWANDA AND 
UGANDA TO START A REAL EXIT, AND ALLOW KABILA TO TREAD 
DOWN A PATH OF HIS OWN MAKING. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ0685 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06663  03 OF 03  290907Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00 
      SMEC-00  CTME-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   ITC-01   LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00 
      SS-00    STR-00   T-00     USIE-00  FMP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------A52AA4  290907Z /38 
P 290902Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7733 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
USDOC WASHDC 
NSC WASHDC 
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 006663 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS, EB/IFD/ODF, EB/TPP/ODC 
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER AND BARAK HOFFMAN 
USDOC FOR 2037/ERIC HENDERSON 
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06663  03 OF 03  290907Z 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/08 
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, PREL, EAGR, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: A/S RICE MEETS WITH FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA 
MAKONI 
 
8.  (C) ADDRESSING THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE, A/S RICE 
EXPLAINED OUR CURRENT STRATEGY AND EFFORTS AT PROMOTING 
COOPERATION WITHIN AND DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE DOMESTIC 
FORCES THAT ARE AT ODDS.  SHE ALSO LAID OUT A SCENARIO 
THAT WOULD HAVE THE MODERATES IN BOTH PARTIES WORKING AT 
LEAST IN PARALLEL TOWARDS THE SAME GOALS, WITH THE 
EVENTUAL TARGET OF WORKING TOGETHER.  THE BENEFITS OF A 
MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM AND POLITICAL PLURALISM NEED TO BE 
SOLD TO THE COUNTRY'S HISTORICAL LEADERSHIP, AND NOT ONLY 
THE DIFFICULTIES AND DANGERS.  IN ADDITION, THE POLITICAL 
VIOLENCE MUST END, AS THIS IS NECESSARY FOR ANY OUTSIDE 
SUPPORT, A/S RICE CONCLUDED. 
 
9.  (C) MINISTER MAKONI ENDED THE MEETING BY TELLING US 
THAT, PROVIDED THE BUDGET HE WAS OFF TO ANNOUNCE MET WITH 
DOMESTIC AND EXTERNAL APPROVAL, HE PLANNED TO VISIT 
WASHINGTON IN LATE NOVEMBER/EARLY DECEMBER TO MEET WITH 
THE WORLD BANK AND IMF.  HE REQUESTED A FOLLOW UP MEETING 
WITH THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY IN WASHINGTON, TO WHICH SHE 
AGREED. 
 
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COMMENT 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06663  03 OF 03  290907Z 
 
10.  (C) MAKONI, APPEARING THE POLISHED, ARTICULATE, 
INTELLIGENT AND SAVVY MAN HE IS, PROVIDED US AN 
INSIGHTFUL AND VALUABLE LOOK INTO THE WORKINGS AND 
FOIBLES OF HIS PATRON THE PRESIDENT.  DISAVOWING ANY 
POLITICAL ASPIRATIONS, HE TOLD US HE ONLY WANTS HIS 
COUNTRY TO SUCCEED, AND HIS OWN EFFORTS ARE DIRECTED 
SOLELY TO THIS END.  WHILE THE LATTER MUST BE TAKEN WITH 
A GRAIN OF SALT, HE CLEARLY VIEWS US AS A TRUSTWORTHY 
ALLY THAT CAN ASSIST IN DIRECTING PRESIDENT MUGABE AND 
ZIMBABWE ONTO A LESS SELF-DESTRUCTIVE PATH.  WE LOOK 
FORWARD TO WORKING WITH HIM, AND FIND TRUTH AND GOOD 
COUNSEL IN HIS WORDS.  END COMMENT. 
 
11. A/S SUSAN RICE CLEARED THIS MESSAGE. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
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