US embassy cable - 04AMMAN850

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000850 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARN, NEA/PA, NEA/AIA, INR/NESA, R/MR, 
I/GNEA, B/BXN, B/BRN, NEA/PPD, NEA/IPA FOR ALTERMAN 
USAID/ANE/MEA 
LONDON FOR GOLDRICH 
PARIS FOR O'FRIEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
TAGS: KMDR JO 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION ON MIDDLE EAST 
 
 
                        Summary 
 
-- Lead story in all papers today, February 4, 
highlights Israeli Prime Minister Sharon's 
announcement of an initiative to "evacuate" Israeli 
settlements in Gaza and "exchange" territories with 
the Palestinians.  Another lead story highlights 
decisions by President Bush and Prime Minister Blair 
to authorize investigations into pre-war intelligence 
reports about WMD in Iraq. 
 
                 Editorial Commentary 
 
 
-- "Withdrawing from Gaza: a test or a political 
tremor?" 
 
Semi-official, influential Arabic daily Al-Rai (02/04) 
editorializes:  "It would not be an exaggeration to 
say that Sharon's mysterious proposal for withdrawing 
from the Gaza Strip, unilaterally, has caused a 
political tremor throughout the Israeli and 
Palestinian arenas that is likely to extend to the 
entire region and the international arena should 
Washington intervene and support the move..  It may be 
too early to discern the potential success of Sharon's 
plan, assuming that it is genuine and truthful..  Yet, 
the way Sharon is reading the current Palestinian, 
Israeli and international status quo encourages such a 
risky but calculated maneuver in order to appear as a 
`man of peace' and avoid political downfall..  There 
is plenty of time to figure out the response to 
Sharon's plan, but so far it is clear that Sharon is 
holding the reins again and is able, through his 
proposal, to negotiate with everyone in the Israeli 
and Palestinian arenas as well as the regional and 
international arenas." 
 
-- "The unilateral separation plan" 
 
Center-left, influential Arabic daily Al-Dustour 
(02/04) editorializes:  "One cannot view the 
unilateral separation plan, the details of which are 
now being divulged by Israeli Prime Minister Sharon, 
in isolation of the political timing and the difficult 
circumstances that Sharon is going through..  The 
Israeli Prime Minister wants to reshuffle the cards 
and get everyone into an illusionary whirlpool that 
portrays him as the one with the vision for the 
solution with the Palestinians..  It is natural for 
the Palestinian Prime Minister to welcome the 
dismantling of the settlements in Gaza.  It is 
inevitable.  Everyone may also welcome Israel's 
intention to isolate itself behind barricades of its 
choice.  But this approach is nothing more unilateral 
measures that have nothing to do with the peace 
process that should be founded on ending the 
occupation, withdrawing from all territories occupied 
in 1967, inclusive of East Jerusalem, and establishing 
an independent, sovereign Palestinian state on the 
West Bank and Gaza Strip.  Anything other than that 
would not be a peace project.  Thus, what is to be 
understood of the separation plan is that it means 
turning Israel into a state living behind a wall, with 
all the inherent difficulties that poses of 
communicating with it on anything." 
 
-- "A new maneuver or a link in the chain of Israel's 
final-status solution?" 
 
Daily columnist Urayb Rintawi writes on the op-ed page 
of center-left, influential Arabic daily Al-Dustour 
(02/04):  "Sharon has the habit of announcing measures 
to improve the life of Palestinians before every visit 
to the U.S., which allows the Americans to assure us 
that he is working for peace, and both then forget 
about implementing the measures once the visit is 
over.  This may be another such scenario.  But it is 
more likely a genuine attempt to force a unilateral 
settlement based on Sharon's vision, by which the 
Palestinian territories would be reduced to Gaza and 
about 42% of the West Bank, which lies outside the 
apartheid wall.  This will not satisfy the nationalist 
aspirations of the Palestinians, but they would not be 
able to prevent the implementation of the program, nor 
would they make an effort to prevent Israel from 
leaving any Palestinian territory.  However, the plan 
cannot succeed because Israelis themselves would 
reject such territorial concessions, inadequate as 
they may be." 
-- Sharon's new proposals" 
Daily columnist Jamil Nimri writes on the back-page of 
independent, mass-appeal Arabic daily Al-Arab Al-Yawm 
(02/04):  "It is as if Sharon is racing with time. 
All this dynamic activity and strategically inclined 
projects indicate that the man wants to specify the 
direction in which the final solution is heading 
before he leaves, or is forced to leave his post.  On 
the other hand, the policy of impeding the solution 
and continuing confrontation has been exhausted. 
Sharon succeeded in freezing the roadmap and rendering 
all initiatives before it a failure.  He has also 
neutralized all international powers and therefore has 
nothing to worry about in terms of pressures, not even 
(were he to order) the expelling of Arafat, which now 
seems not to be advantageous to Israel anyway..  And 
so, he arrived at the initiative of unilateral 
disengagement as well as the establishment of the 
racist separation wall..  We wrote more than once 
saying that Sharon's plan is frighteningly realistic 
and that he does have the means to implement it. 
Unfortunately, we never saw a counterpoint Palestinian 
strategy.  Sharon seems not to want to miss this 
opportunity of getting everything he wants, for he has 
come up with the idea of resolving the demographic 
problem that has been keeping the Jewish entity awake 
at night in the same deal.  He suggested annexing some 
Arab villages in Israel to the Palestinian entity 
within the framework of `the exchange of 
territories'..  What is this ingenuity of employing 
the concept of exchanging territories in this manner! 
More confiscation of Arab lands and liberation of 
Israel of Arab inhabitants!  We will assume that this 
just another one of Sharon's tests.  However, let us 
not forget that his maneuver is based on the genuine 
anxiety that is common to all political powers in 
Israel, the country's demographic future.  And let us 
not forget that what sounded like a far-fetched 
illusionary proposal in the past was made possible by 
the Israelis." 
GNEHM