US embassy cable - 04THEHAGUE281

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 000281 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR SECRETARY POWELL, NSA RICE, AND DEPSEC WOLFOWITZ FROM 
AMB CLIFF SOBEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2014 
TAGS: AF, EU, IZ, NL, PGOV, PREL, SNAR, TU, XA, XF, XH, NATO 
SUBJECT: DUTCH FM BOT'S VISIT TO THE U.S. 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CLIFFORD SOBEL FOR REASONS 1.5 B AND D 
 
1. (C) I just spoke with Ben Bot and found him 
well-prepared for his February 9 visit to Washington.  He 
plans to ask how he personally can contribute to improved 
transatlantic relations.  As he has said in press 
interviews, other European leaders are counting on him to 
help mend fences between the European Union and 
Washington.  That remark is a telling sign of his ambition 
and self-confidence.  Upon taking office he immediately set 
out to improve Dutch relations with France and Germany, to 
challenge the most senior minister for dominance within the 
Dutch cabinet, to charm parliamentarians, and to impress 
MFA officials.   He is talented and extremely clever at EU 
politics after eight years as the Dutch ambassador to the 
EU.  We should take up his professions of transatlantic 
leadership by asking for real support. 
 
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Gaining Bot's Support within the EU 
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2. (C) FM Bot could help gain EU cooperation on issues of 
critical importance to the U.S. We should ask for help on 
the following issues within the EU: 
 
--Greater Middle East. We can tap Bot to help build support 
within the EU for this initiative.  He has expressed 
interest in GME but will likely emphasize the need to 
reinvigorate the peace process as well. 
 
--Turkey:  Bot should be asked to show leadership on this 
issue within the EU. A former ambassador to Turkey, Bot 
already has altered the MFA  course, making clear that he 
favors Turkey  EU accession, if it meets the Copenhagen 
criteria.  However, he has his work cut out for him 
domestically because two of the three parties in government 
are highly skeptical of Turkish membership:  the Liberal 
Party for financial reasons and some of his own Christian 
Democrats for cultural ones.  Bot said that Greek FM 
Papandreou told him Turkey  positive steps on Cyprus are 
worrying because now Greece risks looking like the 
spoiler.  Bot also expressed concern about "pressure" he 
heard the U.S. is putting on new members regarding Turkey. 
 
--NATO-EU: Bot should hear specific ways in which he can 
protect transatlantic equities. The Dutch are Berlin Plus 
purists and can be counted on to help prevent EU straying, 
assuming the UK stays on message.  Bot told me that German 
FM Fischer is eager to find concrete ways of restoring the 
situation.  To be close to the U.S. is  ssential, ischer 
said.  Bot said the French professed a similar desire to 
find substantive issues for transatlantic cooperation, but 
that as conversations went longer with FM Villepin and 
Giscard d staing, their criticisms of the U.S. grew. 
 
--Counter-terrorism:  Bot needs to know how important Dutch 
leadership was on container security and portal monitors 
and be asked to show leadership in next steps between the 
EU and U.S.  He needs to hear that we need Dutch help in 
developing better processes of communication and 
cooperation. 
 
--Other Europe:  Bot can be asked to help synchronize U.S. 
and EU policy on frozen conflicts, Georgia, and the Values 
Gap with Russia. The Dutch term as OSCE chair was 
characterized by intensive dialogue with Russia, the 
Caucasus and Central Asia. 
 
--Africa/HIV:  Bot can encourage others in the EU to more 
closely coordinate their programs on Africa and HIV, 
following the Dutch example.  The Netherlands and the U.S. 
are coordinating their HIV assistance in several countries 
and the Dutch have made Africa a priority, especially Sudan 
and the Great Lakes region.  They are an important player 
on the continent and the third largest donor. 
 
3. (C) On all these issues, Bot could play a significant 
role.  However, it is not yet clear the degree to which he 
is willing to stake out a position and lead the EU versus 
waiting to see which way the EU winds blow.  His 
calculations might be based more tightly on his perception 
of Dutch national interests than on principle.  Last week, 
despite massive parliamentary objections, he reversed Dutch 
opposition to lifting the China arms embargo.  He explained 
his decision to me in classic terms:  the Dutch risked 
being locked out of China for years if they tried to block 
the EU.  Furthermore, he said, there is no point in the 
Dutch taking stands that isolate it within the EU. 
 
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Pushing Bot on bilateral issues:  Iraq, Afghanistan, TIP, 
Narcotics 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
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4. (C) The Dutch need to hear that they should do even more 
in Iraq and Afghanistan.   The Dutch are actively 
discussing whether they can offer special forces to OEF and 
PRT leadership or whether to try to get away with less 
difficult tasks in Afghanistan.  Bot cited the cabinet 
January 31 decision 
to send Apache helicopters to 
Afghanistan as  nough for now. e should be thanked but 
given the message that the helos are not enough.  Bot said 
PRTs remain under consideration but that he needs to go 
step by step with parliament.  PRTs are a poignant test of 
the Dutch conflict between wanting to be a player that 
takes on serious responsibility and fearing taking or 
causing casualties, a fear exacerbated by their experiences 
in Srebrenica.  Many parliamentarians, including from the 
opposition, have visited Afghanistan and believe ISAF needs 
to expand and yet do not want Dutch troops deployed in 
unsafe areas.  They will want to know what the extraction 
plan is and will feel most confident if under the 
protection of U.S. or UK forces. 
5. (C) As for Iraq, Defense Minister Kamp already is 
suggesting publicly that Dutch troops need to stay beyond 
July; Bot should hear Washington endorse this, as well as 
ask for more development and reconstruction assistance. Bot 
is more sympathetic than others in the Dutch government to 
increasing assistance to Iraq, but may try to hide behind 
budget woes.  It is also useful to talk about NATO  future 
role in Iraq.  Bot and the Dutch perm rep have been 
cautious; we should push him. 
 
6. (C) CT/Drugs/TIP: We should push him for further 
cooperation on counter-terrorism issues, and to more 
effectively address continuing problems regarding 
trafficking in people and narcotics. 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C) Ben Bot makes all the right professions of faith in 
the transatlantic relationship, but has not yet had to make 
a decision that risks angering larger EU partners.  He 
cites his deceased American wife as one strong link to the 
U.S.  Transatlanticists who have known him throughout his 
career say that he is indeed a classic Dutchman who sees no 
conflict between being a committed Atlanticist and a 
committed European. His comments on Villepin also suggest 
he has no illusions about the French.  However, he has been 
playing on the European stage, not the world stage for a 
decade, and in our early meetings, he occasionally made odd 
remarks to me about U.S. indifference to the EU.  In giving 
him real work to do when he is in Washington, the goal is 
not only to advance U.S. objectives but also to get a 
clearer picture of how capable and courageous he is.  It 
could be that he is the ideal man to run the Dutch EU 
presidency because he might be even better than de Hoop 
Scheffer at jumping EU hurdles.  We should take advantage 
of his energy and ambition to be a serious player, and we 
should gauge how much water he will be able to carry during 
the Dutch presidency.  PM Balkenende has given him the 
lead; thus, U.S.-EU relations in the second half of 2004 
depend largely on this man  abilities and attitudes. 
SOBEL