US embassy cable - 04TEGUCIGALPA258

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000258 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN, INL/LP, INR, AND DS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KCRM, KJUS, SNAR, ASEC, PHUM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: GUNMEN SHOOT CAR OF PRESIDENT OF HONDURAN CONGRESS 
PEPE LOBO; ATTEMPTED ASSASSINATION OR ROBBERY? 
 
REF: A. 03 TEGUCIGALPA 2301 
 
     B. 03 TEGUCIGALPA 1904 
     C. 03 TEGUCIGALPA 882 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Francisco Palmieri; 
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Unknown gunmen shot at the car of Porfirio 
"Pepe" Lobo, President of Congress, February 1.  Lobo was not 
in the car at the time, and his driver, two aides, a 
bodyguard, and an army officer in the car were unhurt. 
Police believe that the attack was either (a) linked to 
threats (made public January 24) targeting Lobo for 
assassination by gang members due to his strong support for a 
controversial anti-gang law, or (b) an attempted robbery and 
not a targeted attack.  Whether or not this attack was an 
attempt to assassinate Lobo, the GOH is prudently taking 
seriously threats of violence by gangs/narcotraffickers 
toward senior GOH officials.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU/NOFORN) Unknown gunmen using AK-47s shot at the car 
of Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, President of Congress, the morning 
of February 1 on Highway 15, the road from Tegucigalpa to 
Juticalpa, near kilometer 93 on the border of the Departments 
of Francisco Morazan and Olancho.  Unlike Highways 39 and 41 
in Olancho that are subject to highway robbery (as mentioned 
in the Consular Information Sheet), this stretch of Highway 
15 is heavily traveled and not known for banditry.  Police 
reportedly found four AK-47 shell casings at the crime scene. 
 Lobo was not in the Chevrolet Suburban at the time, and his 
driver, two aides, a bodyguard, and an army second lieutenant 
in the car were unhurt.  Lobo is entitled to security as 
president of Congress, but it is unclear why an army officer 
was in the car.  There are conflicting reports, some of which 
indicate that Lobo had planned to make the trip by road but 
at the last minute went by helicopter instead, thus avoiding 
the attack. 
 
3. (U) Police believe that the attack may be linked to 
threats, made public January 24, that Lobo had been targeted 
for assassination by gang members due to his strong support 
for a controversial anti-gang law.  On August 8, the Honduran 
National Congress approved a bill banning membership in 
street gangs and other groups that associate for the purpose 
of committing crimes.  The bill prescribed prison terms for 
those convicted of being gang members, with sentences ranging 
from three to 12 years depending on the individual's level of 
involvement and seniority (ref B).  Press reports indicated 
that the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of 
Defense believed the threats to be credible. 
 
4. (S) However, Minister of Public Security Oscar Alvarez 
told Law Enforcement Assistance Coordinator at the time that, 
while Lobo had been advised to take the threats seriously, 
Alvarez did not believe the threats were credible.  (Note: 
It would be unusual for a politician to receive credible 
deaths threats linked to a general political action, as 
opposed to personal involvement in a controversial private 
issue.  It is worth noting that over the last six months 
there have been several allegations and/or incidents 
involving members of Lobo's extended family involving 
narco-related crime.  While Lobo himself has not been 
implicated in these allegations/incidents, they could 
potentially put him at risk for a targeted killing.  End 
Note.) 
 
5. (U) An alternate theory that police are investigating is 
that his car was targeted by bandits, similar to the April 
10, 2003, attack on the advance car of First Lady Aguas Ocana 
de Maduro (ref C), and that Lobo himself was not a target. 
Police are investigating both theories. 
 
6. (U) The anti-gang law has been popular with the public, 
but has been criticized by human rights organizations and 
challenged as unconstitutional (so far unsuccessfully, with 
two separate cases being dismissed).  The Maduro 
Administration has trumpeted the law as being key to recent 
successes in reducing the number of violent crimes, including 
murder (ref A).  Observers have estimated there are upwards 
of 100,000 gang members and associates, with two main gangs 
being Mara Salvatrucha and 18 (diez y ocho), and have pinned 
much of the blame for the country's astronomical murder rates 
and violent narcotrafficking on gangs. 
 
7. (U) Lobo himself has used the law's popularity as a 
launching pad for his nascent presidential campaign.  He is 
considered by most observers and polls to be running second 
to Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor for the National Party 
presidential slot for the election in 2005.  President 
Ricardo Maduro, a Nationalist Party member, cannot run for 
reelection. 
 
8. (C) Comment:  Whether or not this attack was an attempt to 
assassinate Pepe Lobo, the GOH is right to take threats of 
violence by gangs/narcotraffickers toward Lobo (and senior 
Ministry of Public Security officials) seriously, even if 
this specific threat may not have been credible.  A culture 
of impunity fueled by a weak rule of law, gang violence, and 
the pervasive influence of narco-corruption helps make 
Honduras a very violent country.  Meanwhile, the anti-gang 
law has become a cornerstone of the Maduro Administration's 
war on crime.  It remains to be seen, however, if short-term 
gains against gangs will mean a long-term improvement in 
reducing the level of violence.  End Comment. 
PALMER