US embassy cable - 00HARARE6658

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 006658 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
 
NNEWMAN 
 
PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06658  01 OF 02  282215Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF WINS MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION; LOW 
TURNOUT LIKELY THE RESULT OF PRE-ELECTION INTIMIDATION 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: THE RULING PARTY ZANU-PF CANDIDATE WON 
THE BY-ELECTION FOR THE MARONDERA WEST PARLIAMENTARY 
SEAT HELD NOVEMBER 25 AND 26.  VOTING WAS PEACEFUL, BUT 
THE TURNOUT WAS LOW - JUST UNDER A THIRD OF THE 
REGISTERED VOTERS.  DISTRICT RESIDENTS TOLD EMBASSY AND 
NGO PERSONNEL ON NOVEMBER 25 THAT THERE HAD BEEN A HIGH 
DEGREE OF INTIMIDATION OF VOTERS IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 
BY-ELECTION BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, WAR VETERANS, AND THE 
POLICE AND MILITARY THAT RESULTED IN ONE DEATH. 
INTIMIDATION OF VOTERS WAS NOT EVIDENT TO US ON THE 
VOTING DAYS OF NOVEMBER 25 AND 26.  POLL WATCHERS FOR 
BOTH ZANU-PF AND MDC WERE ALLOWED TO MONITOR THE VOTING 
AND SAFEGUARD THE BALLOT BOXES, BUT DUE TO THE PRE- 
ELECTION INTIMIDATION, THE ELECTION CANNOT BE CONSIDERED 
TO HAVE BEEN FREE AND FAIR IN OUR JUDGEMENT.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE WINS, BUT WITH A SMALLER MAJORITY 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2. (C) THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE IN THE MARONDERA WEST BY- 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06658  01 OF 02  282215Z 
ELECTION, AMBROSE MUTINHIRI, A RETIRED BRIGADIER GENERAL 
AND FORMER AMBASSADOR TO YUGOSLAVIA, WON THE ELECTION, 
BUT GARNERED FAR FEWER VOTES THAN HIS PREDECESSOR, WHOSE 
DEATH IN A CAR ACCIDENT IN JULY BROUGHT ABOUT THE BY- 
ELECTION.  THE NOVEMBER 28 ISSUE OF THE GOZ-CONTROLLED 
"THE HERALD" NEWSPAPER REPORTED MUTINHIRI RECEIVED 7,376 
VOTES VERSUS 4,366 VOTES FOR THE MDC CANDIDATE SHADRECK 
CHIPANGURA.  MUTINHIRI RECEIVED ALMOST 4,000 FEWER VOTES 
THAN THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE IN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTION, WHILE THE MDC CANDIDATE ONLY RECEIVED 200 
FEWER VOTES.  THIS LOWERED VOTE TALLY OCCURRED EVEN 
THOUGH ZANU-PF PULLED OUT ALL THE STOPS IN THE CAMPAIGN, 
WITH BIASED MEDIA COVERAGE, THE USE OF WAR VETERANS TO 
PROMOTE THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE AND INTIMIDATE MDC 
SUPPORTERS, AND PERSONAL CAMPAIGNING BY CHENJERAI 
"HITLER" HUNZVI, THE CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL 
LIBERATION WAR VETERANS ASSOCIATION, AND RETIRED ZDF 
GENERAL AND ZANU-PF HEAVYWEIGHT SOLOMON MUJURU. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION HELD ON UNEVEN PLAYING FIELD 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
3. (C) ECONOFF, THE USAID DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE 
OFFICER, A USAID FOREIGN SERVICE NATIONAL AND A SOUTH 
AFRICA-BASED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTERNATIONAL 
REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE OBSERVED THE BY-ELECTION ON 
NOVEMBER 25 AND 26.  CANDIDATES FROM THREE PARTIES RAN 
FOR THE VACANT SEAT, BUT THE RACE REALLY BOILED DOWN TO 
A CONTEST BETWEEN THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE AND THE MDC 
CANDIDATE.  THERE WERE ALLEGATIONS THAT THE ZDF HAD SENT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  06658  01 OF 02  282215Z 
SOLDIERS TO CAMPAIGN FOR MUTINHIRI, AND THAT THE RULING 
PARTY BROUGHT IN SUPPORTERS FROM NEIGHBORING AREAS TO 
CAMPAIGN AND POSSIBLY EVEN VOTE ILLEGALLY FOR HIM. 
THERE WERE ALSO ALLEGATIONS THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF 
ZIMBABWE'S (GOZ) MINISTRY OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER 
AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION HAD BOUGHT THE VOTES OF YOUTH 
AND OTHER VOTERS IN THE DISTRICT. 
 
4. (C) THE MDC HAS REPORTED THAT THERE WAS A CONCERTED 
CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION IN THE WEEKS PRECEDING THE BY- 
ELECTION.  THIS ALLEGEDLY INCLUDED MILITARY AND POLICE 
PERSONNEL GOING FROM HOUSE TO HOUSE AT NIGHT 
INTIMIDATING THE OCCUPANTS.  WAR VETERANS WERE ALSO OUT 
IN FORCE, AND WERE STILL SEEN BY US CAMPED OUT IN THE 
DISTRICT ON NOVEMBER 25 AND 26.  WAR VETS ALLEGEDLY 
ATTACKED AND BROKE THE LEGS OF TWO MDC SUPPORTERS THE 
DAY BEFORE THE ELECTIONS.  ON NOVEMBER 25, CHENJERAI 
"HITLER" HUNZVI ALLEGEDLY HELD A PISTOL TO THE HEAD OF 
AN MDC POLL WATCHER, AND THEN CHASED THE POLL WATCHER 
AND ANOTHER MDC SUPPORTER AWAY FROM THE POLLING STATION, 
ACCORDING TO A EUROPEAN UNION ELECTION OBSERVER.  OUR 
SOURCE TOLD US THAT A ZIMBABWEAN WHO OBSERVED THIS 
INCIDENT SAID TO HUNZVI "ARE WE GOING TO DO THIS IN A 
CIVILIZED MANNER?", TO WHICH HUNZVI ANGRILY REPLIED "I 
AM NOT A CIVILIZED PERSON."  BOTH HUNZVI AND RETIRED 
ZIMBABWE DEFENSE FORCES GENERAL SOLOMON MUJURU WERE SEEN 
BY THE MISSION OBSERVERS IN THE DISTRICT ON NOVEMBER 25. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9047 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------A4EBE6  282340Z /38 
R 281458Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7725 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 006658 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
 
NNEWMAN 
 
PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06658  02 OF 02  282215Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF WINS MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION; LOW 
TURNOUT LIKELY THE RESULT OF PRE-ELECTION INTIMIDATION 
 
--------------------------------- 
VOTING IN BY-ELECTION IS PEACEFUL 
--------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) THE VOTING TOOK PLACE IN A PEACEFUL MANNER ON 
NOVEMBER 25 AND 26.  OUR OBSERVERS DID NOT WITNESS ANY 
CLEAR INTIMIDATION OF VOTERS ON THESE TWO DAYS.  THEY 
WERE NOT ACCREDITED BY THE GOZ, AND THEREFORE OBSERVED 
VOTING ON AN UNOFFICIAL BASIS.  ON NOVEMBER 25, THEY 
ENTERED A NUMBER OF POLLING STATIONS AND WERE ABLE TO 
VERIFY THAT POLL WATCHERS FOR BOTH ZANU-PF AND THE MDC 
WERE PRESENT AT ALL STATIONS VISITED.  POLICE AND 
ELECTION OFFICIALS WERE GENERALLY FRIENDLY WHEN 
APPROACHED.  THE OBSERVERS ALSO VISITED THE CENTRAL 
COMMAND STATION FOR THE ELECTION, AND WERE INTRODUCED TO 
THE HEAD ELECTION OFFICIAL, WHO STATED THAT HE WAS FROM 
THE MINISTRY OF INFORMATION.  (NOTE: THE GOZ MINISTRY OF 
INFORMATION NO LONGER EXISTS, AS IT WAS RECENTLY FOLDED 
INTO THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE.  END NOTE.)  MISSION 
OBSERVERS HAD TO SIGN THEIR NAMES ON VISITORS' ROLLS AT 
TWO OF THE POLLING STATIONS VISITED, AND POLL OFFICIALS 
NOTED THAT THE PERSONNEL WERE FROM THE U.S. EMBASSY.  ON 
NOVEMBER 26, THE ATTITUDE AND RECEPTION AT THE POLLING 
STATIONS TOWARD THE AMERICAN OBSERVERS WAS NOTABLY 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06658  02 OF 02  282215Z 
FROSTIER.  IT APPEARED THAT POLLING OFFICIALS AND 
POLICEMEN HAD RECEIVED WORD NOT TO INTERACT OR TALK WITH 
THE OBSERVERS. 
 
-------------------------------- 
LOW TURNOUT FOR THE BY-ELECTION 
-------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) THE BY-ELECTION HAD BEEN TOUTED AS A TEST OF 
ZANU-PF'S, AND INDIRECTLY PRESIDENT MUGABE'S, STRENGTH 
AND POPULARITY VERSUS THE MDC.  THERE WAS AN INTENSE 
PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN PERIOD MARRED BY VIOLENCE BETWEEN 
ZANU-PF AND MDC SUPPORTERS, WHICH CULMINATED IN A 
CONFRONTATION THAT RESULTED IN THE DEATH OF A BYSTANDER, 
KILLED BY A STRAY BULLET.  A PLANNED VISIT TO THE 
DISTRICT BY MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TO ADDRESS A 
CAMPAIGN RALLY WAS CANCELLED, BECAUSE OF CONCERN THAT 
TSVANGIRAI'S SAFETY COULD NOT BE GUARANTEED AND THAT 
 
SIPDIS 
VIOLENCE MIGHT ERUPT.  AFTER THIS INTENSE CAMPAIGN, LESS 
THAN ONE-THIRD OF THE REGISTERED VOTERS WENT TO THE 
POLLS.  THE NOVEMBER 28 ISSUE OF "THE HERALD" REPORTED 
THAT 12,322 VOTERS OUT OF 37,600 REGISTERED VOTERS, OR 
32.88 PERCENT OF THE ELECTORATE, CAST THEIR VOTE.  THIS 
COMPARES TO 16,947 VOTES CAST IN THE DISTRICT IN THE 
JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. 
 
7. (C) COMMENT: WHILE THE VOTING OCCURRED IN A 
RELATIVELY PEACEFUL ENVIRONMENT WITH POLL WATCHERS FROM 
BOTH ZANU-PF AND MDC ABLE TO MONITOR THE VOTING, THE 
FACT THAT THE BALLOT WAS PRECEDED BY BIASED MEDIA 
COVERAGE AND A TWO-WEEK CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION AND 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  06658  02 OF 02  282215Z 
VIOLENCE CHIEFLY BY ZANU-PF AND ITS SUPPORTERS, STRONGLY 
SUGGESTS THIS WAS NOT A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION IN OUR 
JUDGEMENT.  THE PREVAILING VIEW OF THE MISSION OBSERVERS 
WAS THAT THE PRE-ELECTION INTIMIDATION CLEARLY PLAYED A 
SIGNIFICANT PART IN REDUCING VOTER TURNOUT.  EVEN WITH 
THIS PRE-ELECTION INTIMIDATION, AND THE PERSONAL 
INVOLVEMENT OF "HITLER" HUNZVI AND SOLOMON MUJURU, THE 
ZANU-PF CANDIDATE RECEIVED ALMOST 4,000 FEWER VOTES THAN 
HIS PREDECESSOR, WHILE THE MDC CANDIDATE RECEIVED ONLY 
200 FEWER VOTES THAN IN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS.  TO US, THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT THE MDC 
HAS HELD ONTO ITS CORE SUPPORT UNDER DIFFICULT 
CIRCUMSTANCES, WHILE ZANU-PF'S SUPPORT HAS ERODED.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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