US embassy cable - 04CARACAS369

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 000369 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR C. BARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN GOVERNORS: ELECTIONS, POLLS, AND HEALTH 
CARE 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.4 (d) 
. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  President Chavez, though buoyed by the spread of 
benefits and end of year spending, will likely suffer a hard 
drop in popularity when the National Electoral Council (CNE) 
announces a referendum, a group of Venezuelan Governors told 
the Ambassador January 14.  The four Governors (including 
metro Caracas Mayor Alfredo Pena) also  commented on the 
irony of the opposition appearing to be anti-elections when 
it was seeking to keep the focus on the referendum and away 
from regional elections.  The Venezuelan leaders also 
commented on President Chavez's attempt to use international 
reserves for programs and the status of Cuban doctors in the 
country.  End Summary. 
 
2.  U) The Ambassador hosted a dinner January 14 to discuss 
Venezuela's political situation with Governor Didalco Bolivar 
(MAS -- Aragua State and an ally of Chavez), Governor Eduardo 
Lapi (Convergencia -- Yaracuy State), Luis Lippa (Alianza 
Civica -- Apure State), and Mayor Alfredo Pena (Independent 
-- Caracas).  Governor Enrique Mendoza (COPEI -- Miranda 
State) accepted, but was unable to attend.  DCM and PolCouns 
accompanied the Ambassador. 
 
------------------ 
What About Chavez? 
------------------ 
 
3.  (C) Bolivar said President Chavez has three options: 
accept a referendum, go for a constitutional amendment, or 
resign.  He asserted that Chavez will not accept a 
referendum.  Lapi commented that even he would resign if 
faced with a referendum because the office holder is running 
against himself.  Caracas Mayor Pena called the idea of 
Chavez pushing for a constitutional amendment a non-starter. 
The people, he said, would not accept having their "voice," 
i.e., the recall referendum, taken away from them.  Pena also 
ruled out the possibility of Chavez resigning.  There would 
be immediate chaos, he asserted, with Chavez supporters 
quickly jumping ship. 
 
4.  (C) Alluding to public comments by opposition leaders 
that regional elections affect the referendum negatively for 
the opposition, the Venezuelan leaders commented on the irony 
of the opposition appearing not to want elections. Lapi 
defended the comments, saying the point is that the focus 
should be on the referendum.  Of course the opposition should 
register candidates and prepare to compete, he told the 
group, and they will do so.  Apure Governor Lippa noted that 
the comments were another indication that the "center" is out 
of touch with the regions.  Using his situation, where Accion 
Democratica (his old party) still supports his rival, Lippa 
said Caracas leaders want to impose candidates without 
relation to the possible support or popularity they may 
enjoy.  Bolivar added that even Chavez's Fifth Republic 
Movement (MVR) suffers from it.  The only difference, the 
Aragua Governor noted, is that in AD and COPEI, a group 
decides and in the MVR it's one person. 
 
------------ 
Poll numbers 
------------ 
 
5.  (C) Regarding Chavez's standing in the polls, Yaracuy 
Governor Lapi predicted that the President's numbers would 
decline immediately after the National Electoral Council 
(CNE) declares that there will be a referendum.  He 
speculated that the drop could be as much as 10 percentage 
points, i.e. to about 30%.  Aragua Governor Bolivar noted 
that once the CNE makes the declaration, Chavez becomes a 
lame duck.  Repeating Mayor Pena's observation about the 
effect of a Chavez resignation, Bolivar said Chavez 
supporters would quickly begin to jump ship.  He observed 
that Chavez rose in the polls through the spreading of 
benefits and end-of-year bonuses, but noted that support is 
not permanent.  Lapi recounted some of his experiences with 
populist opponents and noted that "people want more than 
handouts."  Politically, they only go so far, he said. 
 
-------------- 
The Signatures 
-------------- 
 
 
6.  (C) The guests concurred that the number of signatures 
collected by the opposition to petition for a recall 
referendum against President Chavez is real.  Chavez, they 
agreed, did what he could to limit opposition efforts.  In 
Apure, Lippa commented, even the Bolivarian Liberation Force 
(FBL), an armed group believed to be promoted by Chavez 
supporters, intimidated people.  Bolivar told the group that 
Chavez learned too late how bad things were going for him 
with the opposition signature drive.  His political command 
deceived him, Bolivar reported, and after second day he 
learned from military officers the true status of things. 
Because of this delay, the closing of airports and other 
efforts to impede the petition drive had less effect.  Lapi 
commented that Chavez supporters -- who Bolivar described as 
hard-core believers in Chavez's revolution -- could not help 
but see striking difference between their signature drive a 
week before and the opposition effort.  By the second day, 
Lapi said, they were getting along with opposition, and not 
only that, they were continuing to do so now.  Bolivar noted 
that this experience has convinced all that the opposition 
has collected enough signatures for a recall. 
 
-------------------- 
Central Bank Billion 
-------------------- 
 
7.  Addressing President Chavez's push to get the Central 
Bank of Venezuela to make available $1 billion from the 
country's international reserves for the agricultural sector, 
Aragua's Bolivar asserted that Chavez will get the money.  He 
added, however, that the President does not really want the 
money per se.  What he wants is control of the bank, he said. 
 Pena noted that the people see the issue in simple terms: 
There are $21 billion sitting there idle, why not use some of 
it for the "benefit" of the country?  Lapi pointed out that 
for much of the Chavez audience, there is no understanding of 
the inflationary impact that acquiescing to Chavez's demand 
would have. 
 
------------------------- 
Cuban Doctors/Health Care 
------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) The Governors and Pena concurred that the Cuban 
doctors brought by Chavez are providing a service to 
Venezuela.  Each noted having found ways to work with them. 
Pena noted, however, that the real problem is that the 
national government is seeking to change how Venezuela's 
health-care system operates.  He and Lippa pointed out that 
the government is demanding that 60% of the money destined to 
the states for the health sector be used for the Cuban 
doctors, leaving them without adequate resources to operate 
existing hospitals and clinics under their jurisdiction.  The 
force behind the revolutionary changes, they said, is Health 
Minister Roger Capella, who has long-standing sympathies with 
the Cuban system. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  (C)  With this latest of regular conversations over 
dinner at the Residence, the Governors once again provided 
interesting insights into various hot topics of the day. 
That Chavez may lose support quickly is speculation that 
merits further watching, not only for electoral 
possibilities, but also for how it may provoke other 
reactions.  Lapi (Yaracuy) and Bolivar (Aragua) are certain 
to be nominated by the opposition and the Chavistas 
respectively and almost certain to be reelected.  Lippa 
(Apure) is confident he can be reelected, but AD is promoting 
another candidate.  (Lippa broke away from AD and formed his 
own party.)  Pena is in dire shape with only 12% support in 
Metro Caracas and MVR gunning for him. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
NNNN