US embassy cable - 00HARARE6584

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 006584 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/10 
TAGS: PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE OPPOSITION CANCELS PLANS FOR MASS 
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ACTION 
 
REFTEL: HARARE 6564 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (U) THE MDC'S NATIONAL COUNCIL DECIDED AT AN 
EXTRAORDINARY MEETING NOVEMBER 24 (REFTEL) TO CANCEL 
PLANS FOR MASS ACTION.  THE NOVEMBER 25 "THE HERALD" 
QUOTED MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI AS SAYING MASS 
ACTION HAD BEEN "DEFERRED INDEFINITELY."  TSVANGIRAI 
ALSO STATED THAT THE CIRCUMSTANCES FOR MASS ACTION WOULD 
BE "CONSTANTLY REVIEWED" TO PUT PRESSURE ON THE 
GOVERNMENT TO HOLD EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS DUE BY 
MID-2000. 
 
2.  (C) IN A CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF NOVEMBER 27, 
HOWEVER, MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE SAID THE 
MDC HAS CANCELED ALTOGETHER PLANS FOR MASS ACTION AND 
THAT THE MATTER WOULD NO LONGER BE CONSIDERED.  THE MDC 
IS SAYING PUBLICLY THAT MASS ACTION IS BEING "DEFERRED" 
AND "POSTPONED" TO KEEP THE GOVERNMENT GUESSING, BUT, IN 
REALITY, IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE MDC WILL EVER 
ORGANIZE ANY FORM OF MASS ACTION BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTIONS, NCUBE EMPHASIZED.  THE MDC BELIEVES THAT THE 
SUCCESS OF MASS ACTION CANNOT BE ASSURED, AND THAT, 
UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT IS NOT IN THE COUNTRY'S BEST 
INTEREST TO ENCOURAGE A "SAVAGE RESPONSE" FROM THE 
GOVERNMENT.  NCUBE STATED THAT HIS PARTY HAD INFORMATION 
THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS PLANNING A STATE OF EMERGENCY 
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AND BRUTAL CRACKDOWN IF MASS ACTION CAME TO PASS.  THE 
PROVINCIAL REPRESENTATIVES ALSO REPORTED AT THE COUNCIL 
MEETING THAT THE CIO HAS HEAVILY INFILTRATED THE MDC'S 
PROVINCIAL STRUCTURES, AND THAT, AFTER BEING INFORMED BY 
THE CIO, THE ZIMBABWE BROADCASTING CORPORATION (ZBC) 
ANNOUNCED DECEMBER 6 AS THE DATE FOR MASS ACTION.  THIS 
REMOVED THE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE, NCUBE CONTINUED, AND 
WAS ANOTHER REASON FOR CANCELING THE MASS ACTION. 
 
3.  (C) IN SPEAKING TO PAUL NYATI, MP FOR GWANDA NORTH 
AND MDC DIRECTOR OF ELECTIONS, ON NOVEMBER 27 ON THE 
MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION (TO BE REPORTED SEPTEL), 
POLOFF ALSO LEARNED THAT CONSULTATIONS WITH MDC RURAL 
STRUCTURES ON MASS ACTION HAD NOT BEEN COMPLETED OR 
THOROUGHLY COORDINATED.  A NUMBER OF MDC MEMBERS HAD 
MADE TOO MANY STATEMENTS ABOUT UPCOMING MASS ACTION 
PLANS FOR IT TO BE A REAL SURPRISE TO THE GOVERNMENT, 
NYATI STATED.  THE MP ALSO CITED MEMBERS AS WANTING TO 
BE WITH THEIR FAMILIES OVER THE HOLIDAYS AS AN 
ADDITIONAL REASON FOR CANCELING THE MASS ACTION. 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT: THE NATIONAL COUNCIL'S DECISION FOLLOWS 
THE MDC MODUS OPERANDI:  THREATEN AND PLAN POLITICAL 
ACTION, BUT BACK OFF AT THE LAST MINUTE WHEN VIOLENCE 
SEEMS INEVITABLE.  IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WESTERN 
COUNTRIES, PARTICULARLY THE US, PLAYED A ROLE IN 
DISCOURAGING ACTIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO VIOLENCE.  IT IS 
UNCLEAR WHETHER THE MDC'S "RADICAL" WING AND YOUTH 
ELEMENTS IN HARARE WILL ACCEPT THE DECISION.  A SPLIT IN 
THE MDC REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AND SOME RADICAL ELEMENTS 
COULD STILL TAKE MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS.  ALTHOUGH 
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IT PROBABLY WILL DIFFUSE TENSION IN THE SHORT-TERM, THE 
CANCELLATION OF MASS ACTION COULD ALSO TAKE THE WIND OUT 
OF THE MDC'S SAILS AND LEAVE THE OPPOSITION IN LIMBO 
UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002.  FURTHERMORE, 
THE MDC COULD BRING THE MASS ACTION PROPOSAL BACK TO 
CENTER STAGE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2001 IF DAILY 
LIVING CONDITIONS GET AS BAD AS EXPECTED HERE.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
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