US embassy cable - 04DUSHANBE170

C O N F I D E N T I A L  DUSHANBE 000170 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN - BANKS, DRL 
MOSCOW FOR WOOSTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  1/29/09 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINR, KISL, KDEM, KPAO, TI 
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN:  ISLAMIC PARTY'S KABIRI UNPLUGGED 
 
REF: (A) DUSHANBE 146; (B) DUSHANBE 90; (C) DUSHANBE 02 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: RICHARD HOAGLAND, AMB, EXEC, STATE. 
REASON: 1.5 (D) 
 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  At a small dinner party on January 29, First 
Deputy Chairman of the Islamic Revival Party Muhiddin Kabiri 
freely discussed the upcoming elections and his party's chances 
of success.  Drawing on his experiences in the last 
parliamentary elections, he opined that President Rahmonov would 
ensure that his party retains power by any means possible. 
Kabiri said that Rahmonov retains popularity, but the next 
generation of voters will look for concrete economic 
achievements before casting their votes for him.  Kabiri, like 
his party, looks to the 2010 parliamentary elections as the 
target date for possible change.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) DCM participated on January 29 in a small dinner hosted 
by a German Embassy colleague whose featured guest was Muhiddin 
Kabiri, the first deputy chairman of the Islamic Revival Party 
of Tajikistan (IRPT).  Arriving in his newly acquired Mercedes 
Benz 500 series sedan, and more nattily attired than the rest of 
the guests, Kabiri declined offers of wine and champagne and 
settled for downing three or four beers during his stay of five 
and one-half hours.  Over a tasty Persian meal of fessenjun, 
coo-coo, and mastakhiar, Kabiri discussed the upcoming 
elections, the role of the IRPT in Tajikistan, and his own 
political ambitions. 
 
3.  (C) Kabiri said that the 2005 parliamentary election would 
not result in any change of power.  Referring to his own 
parliamentary campaign in Faizobad during the last election in 
2000, Kabiri said that after the first round of voting he was 
the front-runner with 48% of the vote.  Though he had the 
support of all the other opposition candidates for the second 
round, his votes totaled only 48.5%, and the candidate from the 
President's party, the People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan 
(PDPT), won. 
 
4.  (C) Kabiri said that after the first round results were in, 
some government officials approached him and suggested that he 
take the post of ambassador to Iran or to Turkey rather than 
continue a fruitless campaign to enter parliament.  He was 
specifically told that he had no chance to win the election. 
Kabiri demurred, though he knew the government would not allow 
him to win a seat in parliament.  A good friend who was leader 
of one of the small municipalities told Kabiri that President 
Rahmonov had called him in and ordered him to make sure that 
Kabiri did not win.  Kabiri's friend told him that "I had no 
choice but to do the President's bidding, but because of our 
friendship I want you to know what happened." 
 
5.  (C) In discussing the upcoming elections, Kabiri said that 
the IRPT had a long-term outlook.  (See Ref A)  Realistically 
speaking, Kabiri said, the IRPT would not win even if the next 
election were fair and transparent.  (He hastened to add, 
however, that this would not/not be the case.)  The IRPT is 
looking to the next parliamentary election -- in 2010 -- as the 
one when a viable alternative to Rahmonov could emerge.  This 
would be the first election in which the post-civil war 
generation would participate, and their desire for increased 
economic opportunities would not be flavored by the desire for 
stability that overrides any democratic tendencies in most of 
the present electorate.  Nonetheless, the President is flexing 
his muscles and chipping away at the IRPT with the recent arrest 
of Shamsiddinov (Ref B). 
 
6.  (C) President Rahmonov, according to Kabiri, already has 
started his campaign for parliamentary elections.  By 
intimidating independent media, Rahmonov wants to ensure that 
not much light is shined on his election tactics.  (Ref C)  And, 
Kabiri averred, Rahmonov plans to subvert the international 
community's urging to reform the current election law by "taking 
over" the process.  Once he -- via the PDPT's control of 
parliament -- brings a draft election law before parliament, any 
reforms will only be to increase the President's hold on power. 
 
7.  (C) Kabiri readily admits that Rahmonov himself is popular 
with the electorate.  In a private and confidential poll 
conducted by the IRPT, Rahmonov was the favorite for almost half 
of those polled.  The second leading candidate -- who Kabiri 
would not name -- had support from 11% of those polled, and 
Nuri, the leader of the IRPT, garnered 8%. 
 
8.  (C) Regarding the future of the IRPT, Kabiri said that it is 
considering changing its name, perhaps removing "Islam" from it. 
Nuri decided that it might be time to do so and discussed this 
with the President.  Rahmonov told him that it would not be a 
good idea at the present time, and Kabiri characterized 
Rahmonov's reasoning as Machiavellian -- the President likes to 
hold up the IRPT to foreign visitors as the only legal Islamic 
party in Central Asia and wants to raise the specter of an 
Islamic "Taliban style" party to the electorate.  Kabiri also 
said that Nuri was ready to leave the leadership of the party 
and turn it over to him, but Kabiri said he was not yet ready to 
assume this position. 
 
9.  (C) In fact, Kabiri said he was prepared to support a 
candidate for president from any of the opposition parties, if 
only there were a viable candidate.  The only person who Kabiri 
believes could measure up is Rahmatullo Zoirov, leader of the 
Social Democrat Party of Tajikistan.  But as Kabiri said he told 
Zoirov, "if only you were Tajik, you could be president." 
(Zoirov is an ethnic Uzbek.) 
 
10.  (C) Bio note:  Kabiri was open and frank in his assessments 
and commented how much he enjoyed the discussion.  Unlike most 
Tajik politicians, he relishes hard questions, and he answered 
them thoughtfully.  He spoke in Tajiki and English, and although 
he clearly preferred Tajiki, his English language skills were 
more than adequate.  He obtained his new Mercedes only two weeks 
ago.  He owns a company that imports Russian cars and cranes, 
selling many of them in Afghanistan.  One Afghan customer could 
not pay for the delivery of a crane and gave Kabiri the Mercedes 
instead.  It's likely that Kabiri will sell the car soon rather 
than risk trying to service it in Dushanbe -- the closest 
Mercedes Benz dealer is thousands of miles away. 
 
11.  (U) Kabul minimize considered. 
 
HOAGLAND