US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO630

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 000630 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #19: OPENING OF THE 
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN 
 
REF: A. (A) SANTO DOMINGO 490 
 
     B. (B) SANTO DOMINGO 537 
     C. (C) SANTO DOMINGO 414 
     D. (D) SANTO DOMINGO 355 
 
1. (C) Following is number 18 in our series on the Dominican 
elections. 
 
      OPENING OF THE DOMINICAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN 
 
PRD - Mejia brings it home 
 
(U) A nationwide work stoppage January 28-29 to protest 
economic conditions and President Mejia's policies (Refs A-B) 
has only briefly interrupted the accelerating presidential 
election campaign.  President Mejia continues with 
characteristic tenacity his drive to become the ruling PRD's 
candidate for re-election.  An easy victor in a party primary 
in which he was the only serious candidate (Ref C), he now 
expects to be formally nominated by a PRD "convention of 
delegates" on January 31.  That convention will go ahead as 
scheduled, according to former president (1982-86) Salvador 
Jorge Blanco, spokesman for the organizing committee, and the 
President's legal adviser Guido Gomez Mazara. 
 
(C) Four PRD dissident candidates including Vice President 
Milagros Ortiz-Bosch and Tourism Secretary Rafael "Fello" 
Subervi plan to boycott the convention as they did the 
primary.  Subervi criticized Jorge Blanco for "dividing the 
PRD" by calling the convention.  Ortiz-Bosch denied reports 
that she had dropped out of the race (Ref A) and said she 
would stay the course.  A close adviser to Subervi told us 
the convention might remove PRD president Hatuey De Camps -- 
who fiercely opposes Mejia's re-election bid -- and elect 
President Mejia to the job.  Subervi, the PRD secretary 
general, might also be replaced. 
 
(SBU) Mainline PRD leaders, driven mainly by President 
Mejia's PPH faction, pushed ahead with a controversial 
proposed change to the election law (Ref D) as a strategem to 
bring the dissidents back into the fold.  Despite public 
demonstrations against it and the PRD failure on January 15 
to get a quorum in the House of Representatives, the 
so-called "law of the preferential presidential vote" (aka 
"law of slogans" or "ley de lemas") looks like it's on its 
way to passage.   Ortiz-Bosch and Subervi, according to our 
contacts, hope the PRD convention will leave open the door to 
nominating them as additional presidential candidates in the 
event the election bill passes into law. 
 
(C) The Senate approved the draft law on the first reading, 
January 27.  Senate President Jesus Vasquez Martinez and 
Chamber of Deputies President Alfredo Pacheco have both said 
they would seek civil society opinions before final approval. 
 Both have expressed reservations about whether the bill is 
constitutional --  Pacheco (protect) told us flatly that it 
is not -- but have indicated they will let discussion go 
forward. Once the measure is passed it will go to the Supreme 
Court for constitutional review before the President will 
sign.  Experts in civil society remain opposed to it. 
President of the Central Electoral Board (JCE) Luis Arias 
predicted that the measure, if passed, would facilitate fraud 
at the polls. 
 
And In This Corner, Leonel 
 
(U) Leonel Fernandez capitalized on his front-runner 
position, leading a "march" through low income neighborhoods 
of Santo Domingo on January 26.  Thousands of participants 
filled streets along the route with bright purple PLD flags 
and pictures of the candidate, in a timely pre-carnival 
atmosphere. Leonel grabbed headlines by accusing President 
Mejia of trying to ram through the electoral law revision to 
enable his own re-election and establish a "dictatorship" -- 
a hot-button reference to the country's long history of 
leaders who changed the election rules to keep themselves in 
power.  Fernandez supported the upcoming two-day national 
work stoppage "against the government that has so mistreated 
the people," and urged protesters to be peaceful.  He 
hammered away at his campaign theme:  "Because of the 
irresponsibility and ineptitude of the present 
government,...the Dominican Republic is in the worst crisis 
in its history." 
 
(C) A political adviser to Mejia told us police reports 
estimated the number of marchers at 40,000 - 60,000, judging 
from the number of buses that brought them into the city. 
According to the adviser, the President downplayed the event, 
commenting that if those were all the PLD followers Leonel 
could mobilize by paying "millions" for their transportation, 
food, lodging, and rum, then Hipolito and the mass-membership 
PRD could beat them handily. 
 
Elections Board Formally Invites Observers 
 
(U) Meanwhile, on January 29 the Central Electoral Board 
(JCE) announced that it had invited the UN, the OAS, IFES, 
NDI, CAPEL and regional organizations of election commissions 
to observe the presidential election process, beginning well 
in advance of May 16 if they desired.  The announcement had 
been long expected.  The timing of it did little to bolster 
the public's weak confidence in the impartiality of a JCE 
that is widely viewed as packed with judges from the ruling 
PRD. 
 
(SBU) NOTE: The Ley de Lemas: The proposal would allow up to 
five presidential candidates from the same party to compete 
in the general election on May 16; if no candidate wins an 
absolute majority, then the leading candidates of the two 
most-voted parties would enter a second round 45 days later. 
In our opinion this disposition is contrary to Article 90 of 
the Constitution, which stipulates that President and Vice 
President are elected by direct vote. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
HERTELL