US embassy cable - 00GABORONE5265

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 005265 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/05 
TAGS: SADC, PREL, MARR, MCAP, ZU 
SUBJECT: BREAKTHROUGH FOR SADC ON REFORMING POLITICAL 
ORGAN? 
 
REF: (A) GABORONE 2630, (B) PRETORIA 6497, (C) MBABANE 
1670 
 
(U)  CLASSIFIED BY POL/ECON CHIEF MICHAEL MORROW, REASON 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C)  SADC FOREIGN AND DEFENSE MINISTERS HAVE REACHED 
CONSENSUS ON REFORMING THE LONG-MORIBUND SADC ORGAN ON 
POLITICS, DEFENSE AND SECURITY, FM MERAFHE TOLD US.  THE 
ORGAN HAS BEEN LARGELY DYSFUNCTIONAL SINCE ITS CREATION 
IN 1996, DUE TO A DISPUTE OVER LINES OF AUTHORITY 
BETWEEN IT AND SADC PROPER THAT PITTED ORGAN CHAIRMAN 
ROBERT MUGABE AGAINST 1996-99 SADC CHAIRMAN NELSON 
MANDELA.  ACCORDING TO MERAFHE, THE SADC FOREIGNQ 
MINISTERS MET IN HARARE NOVEMBER 23 AND AGREED ON A 
REFORM PLAN THAT CLEARLY SUBORDINATES THE ORGAN TO THE 
SADC CHAIRMAN AND ESTABLISHES A TROIKA CHAIRMANSHIP OF 
THE ORGAN.  THIS AGREEMENT WAS ACHIEVED ONLY AFTER 
CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE WAS PUT ON ZIMBABWE, WHICH HAD 
LONG OPPOSED THE REFORM PLAN, MERAFHE SAID.  SADC HEADS 
OF STATE MUST NOW RATIFY THE PLAN, WHICH MERAFHE EXPECTS 
TO HAPPEN AT AN EXTRAORDINARY SUMMIT WITHIN THE NEXT SIX 
MONTHS.  THIS REFORM, IF RATIFIED, WOULD BE A CLEAR STEP 
FORWARD IN SADC'S EFFORTS TO DEVELOP A SOUND REGIONAL 
SECURITY ARCHITECTURE.  HOWEVER, THE ULTIMATE 
EFFECTIVENESS OF THE ORGAN WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE 
EXTENT TO WHICH SADC'S DIVERSE MEMBERS CAN DEVELOP A 
COMMON SET OF VALUES IN THEIR APPROACH TO CONFLICT 
MANAGEMENT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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SADC MINISTERS AGREE TO REFORM POLITICAL/SECURITY ORGAN 
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2. (C)  FOREIGN MINISTER MERAFHE TOLD AMBASSADOR 
NOVEMBER 24 THAT AN IMPORTANT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAD 
OCCURRED DURING HIS MEETING THE DAY BEFORE WITH A 
GROUPING OF OTHER SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
(SADC) FOREIGN AND DEFENSE MINISTERS IN HARARE.  THE 
MINISTERS PRESENT (FROM AT LEAST 10 OF THE 14 MEMBER 
STATES -- MAURITIUS, ZAMBIA, SEYCHELLES, AND POSSIBLY 
DRC WERE NOT PRESENT) REACHED CONSENSUS ON A PLAN FOR 
REFORMING THE STRUCTURE OF SADC'S ORGAN FOR POLITICS, 
DEFENSE AND SECURITY.  THE PLAN FOLLOWED THE OUTLINE OF 
THE AGREEMENT REACHED BY SADC FOREIGN AND DEFENSE 
MINISTERS IN MBABANE IN OCTOBER 1999:  THAT THE ORGAN IS 
INDEED A PART OF SADC AND SHOULD REPORT TO THE SADC 
CHAIRMAN; AND THAT THE ORGAN'S CHAIRMANSHIP (HELD BY 
MUGABE SINCE THE ORGAN'S CREATION IN 1996) SHOULD BE 
TRANSFORMED INTO AN ANNUALLY ROTATING TROIKA.  (COMMENT: 
ZIMBABWE FOREIGN MINISTER HAD SIGNED ON TO THE MBABANE 
COMMUNIQUE, BUT SUBSEQUENT BACKSLIDING THREW THE ORGAN 
REFORM ISSUE INTO QUESTION.  SEE REFTELS.  END COMMENT). 
 
3. (C)  THE HARARE CONSENSUS, PROVIDED IT HOLDS, WOULD 
OPEN THE DOOR TO CLEARING UP A PROBLEM THAT HAS 
BEDEVILED SADC FOR FOUR YEARS.  SINCE ITS INCEPTION, THE 
ORGAN HAS HAD A DYSFUNCTIONAL RELATIONSHIP WITH SADC 
ITSELF.  THE CRUX OF THE MATTER HAS BEEN SHARP 
DISAGREEMENT OVER WHETHER THE ORGAN SHOULD BE 
SUBORDINATE TO THE SADC CHAIRMAN OR AUTONOMOUS FROM IT. 
THIS DISPUTE LARGELY PITTED ORGAN CHAIRMAN ROBERT MUGABE 
AGAINST NELSON MANDELA, WHO HELD THE SADC CHAIRMANSHIP 
FROM 1996-99.  THE MOST WELL KNOW CONTROVERSY 
SURROUNDING THE ORGAN WAS THE UNRESOLVED DEBATE OVER 
WHETHER THE ORGAN (OR FOR THAT MATTER, SADC ITSELF) EVER 
FORMALLY ENDORSED THE DEPLOYMENT OF ZIMBABWEAN, NAMIBIAN 
AND ANGOLAN TROOPS (THE SO-CALLED "SADC FORCES") TO THE 
DRC IN AUGUST 1998. 
 
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TWISTING HARARE'S ARM 
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4. (C)  MERAFHE SINGLED OUT ZIMBABWE AS THE MAIN 
STUMBLING BLOCK AT THE HARARE MINISTERIAL.  HE SAID 
ZIMBABWE WAS RELUCTANT TO GO ALONG WITH THE REFORM PLAN 
UNTIL HE, ALONG WITH SOUTH AFRICAN FM ZUMA, "HAMMERED" 
AWAY AT ZIMBABWEAN FM MUDENGE UNTIL "HE WAS DISABUSED OF 
HIS NOTIONS."  MERAFHE (PROTECT) FURTHER NOTED THAT HE, 
ALONG WITH THE OTHER MINISTERS WHO WERE PRESENT, ARE NOW 
"QUIETLY CELEBRATING" ZIMBABWE'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE 
STRUCTURAL CHANGE. 
 
5. (C)  ACCORDING TO MERAFHE, THE SADC HEADS OF STATE 
MUST NOW RATIFY THE PLAN BEFORE IT BECOMES OPERABLE.  HE 
ANTICIPATES THIS WILL HAPPEN AT AN EXTRAORDINARY SUMMIT 
WITHIN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS.  ASKED BY THE AMBASSADOR 
ABOUT THE CHANCES OF FURTHER BACKSLIDING AT THE HEAD OF 
STATE LEVEL, MERAFHE REPLIED THAT IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY 
DIFFICULT -- AND DOWNRIGHT EMBARRASSING -- FOR ZIMBABWE 
OR ANY OTHER MEMBER STATE TO BREAK RANKS AT THIS POINT. 
 
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SADC CONSENSUS ON ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING, TOO? 
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6. (C)  WE ASKED MERAFHE ABOUT THE "OTHER HALF" OF 
SADC'S RESTRUCTURING EFFORT -- A REVIEW THAT BEGAN 15 
MONTHS AGO OF SADC'S HIGHLY DECENTRALIZED (AND WIDELY 
CRITICIZED) SYSTEM OF 21 SECTOR COORDINATING UNITS, EACH 
(WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS) FUNDED AND STAFFED BY A SINGLE 
MEMBER STATE.  HE REPORTED THAT THE ISSUE WOULD BE 
DISCUSSED BY THE SADC COUNCIL OF MINISTERS (OF WHICH 
MERAFHE IS A MEMBER) AT THEIR NOVEMBER 28 MEETING IN 
GABORONE, AND THAT HE EXPECTED A FAVORABLE AND NON- 
CONTROVERSIAL OUTCOME.  (COMMENT:  THIS TRACKS WITH WHAT 
WE ARE HEARING FROM A VARIETY OF OTHER SOURCES:  THAT 
AFTER 15 MONTHS OF STUDY AND NEGOTIATIONS, SADC HAS 
REACHED A CONSENSUS TO CONSOLIDATE THE 21 SECTOR UNITS 
INTO 4 "CLUSTERS" -- TRADE/FINANCE/INVESTMENT; 
INFRASTRUCTURE; AGRICULTURE/ENVIRONMENT; AND HUMAN 
RESOURCES -- THAT WOULD BE REGIONALLY FUNDED AND 
REGIONALLY STAFFED.  END COMMENT). 
 
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COMMENT 
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7. (C)  SHOULD THE CONSENSUS REACHED IN HARARE STICK, 
THIS CAN ONLY BE SEEN AS A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR 
SADC.  HAVING A FUNCTIONING ORGAN WOULD GIVE SADC A 
MUCH-NEEDED MECHANISM FOR ADDRESSING REGIONAL SECURITY 
ISSUES, AS WELL AS GIVE THE U.S. AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL 
PARTNERS A POINT OF CONTACT THROUGH WHICH TO ENGAGE SADC 
ON SUCH ISSUES.  AT THE SAME TIME, AT THIS POINT IT 
WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT AUTOMATICALLY TO ASSUME SADC WILL 
ACTUALLY APPROVE THESE REFORMS -- PRESIDENT MUGABE COULD 
STILL BLOCK THEM IF HE SO CHOOSES.  NOR WOULD IT BE 
PRUDENT TO OVERSELL THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF A REFORMED 
ORGAN.  MANY OBSERVERS POINT TO THE STARK DISPARITIES 
AMONG THE 14 SADC COUNTRIES REGARDING THEIR LEVEL OF 
POLITICAL MATURITY AND COMMITMENT TO HUMAN RIGHTS AND 
DEMOCRACY.  UNLESS AND UNTIL THE REGION DEVELOPS A 
GREATER DEGREE OF SHARED COMMITMENT TO THESE VALUES, THE 
ULTIMATE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE ORGAN AS A VEHICLE FOR 
DIPLOMATIC, NON-MILITARY APPROACHES TO REGIONAL SECURITY 
ISSUES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION. 
NONETHELESS, THE HARARE CONSENSUS IS A PREREQUISITE FOR 
SADC TO GET TO THAT POINT.  THIS, COUPLED WITH THE 
ENCOURAGING NEWS SUGGESTING AGREEMENT ON CONSOLIDATING 
SADC'S FAR-FLUNG AND GENERALLY WEAK DEVELOPMENTAL 
STRUCTURES, APPEARS TO BODE WELL FOR SADC'S LONG-TERM 
ASPIRATIONS TO BECOME A STRONGER ENGINE FOR REGIONAL 
INTEGRATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. 
 
 
LANGE