US embassy cable - 04ADANA17

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADANA 0017 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
FOR APP/IZMIR 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, TU, ADANA 
SUBJECT:  REPORTS ON LOCAL ELECTIONS - 2004 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Contacts in Adana tell us 
incumbent Mayor  Durak is certainly running for 
re-election.  His party affiliation remains 
unclear, but an official close to the mayor 
asserts that AK Party will announce Durak's 
candidacy after the February Sacrifice Holiday. 
Because of mass Kurdish migration from southeast 
Turkey, candidates from the main stream political 
parties will need to attract immigrant voters in 
order to win Adana's mayoralty.  Gaziantep 
appears to be a two-horse race between CHP and AK 
Party.  According to contacts, DEHAP is still in 
the lead in the Diyarbakir mayoralty race as well 
as in smaller southeast Turkey municipal races. 
Cizre DEHAP may well opt to run a Diyarbakir 
resident on the DEHAP mayoral ticket due to 
alleged torture of local DEHAP candidates, 
according to a consulate contact there.  Still 
indecision and party internal fragmentation 
indicate these races are not automatic locks for 
DEHAP As an example, he predicted that local 
voters would not readily accept an outsider and 
so DEHAP might lose in Cizre.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
ADANA: MAYOR SEEKS THE PARTY OF CHANGE OR JUST TO 
CHANGE HIS PARTY? 
 
 
2.  (SBU) Consulate personnel spoke on January 14 
with an official close to current Adana Mayor 
Aytac Durak.  Durak is certainly running for re- 
election (with which party he will be affiliated 
is the question).  Durak's ideological stance 
remains a bit unclear.  At one time he belonged 
to DYP, but he was most recently elected on the 
ANAP's ticket. The official stated that Durak 
definitely intends to join the AK Party and run 
as their candidate. According to repeated press 
reports, Durak conducted polls in recent months 
to ask the Adana voters to which party he should 
belong.  Durak commands a strong following 
according to the official, probably at least 30% 
of the voters.  This official asserted that 
another 60% was split evenly between CHP and AK 
Party.  He predicted to consulate personnel that 
the winning ticket would be the one with Durak on 
it. 
 
 
3. (SBU) Durak may be caught in the middle now. 
Press reported both that ANAP chairman Nesrin Nas 
will not accept him as ANAP's candidate because 
he has changed parties too often and that AK 
Party Adana chairman Abdullah Dogru would not 
accept Durak as AK's candidate unless the Ankara 
party leadership appointed him. Dogru stated 
that, of course, the Adana AK Party leadership 
would respect Ankara's ultimate decision: "We 
would show respect even if Ankara appointed Fidel 
Castro."  The official close to the mayor 
maintains that AK Party will announce Durak's 
candidacy after the February Sacrifice Holiday. 
Although Durak prefers AK Party, the official 
confided that CHP wasn't out of question 
entirely. 
 
 
ALLIANCES MAY BE THE KEY 
 
 
4.  (SBU) Because of the mass migration from 
southeast Turkey to the Cukurova region, 
candidates from the mainstream political parties 
need to attract immigrant Kurdish ethnic voters 
in order to win Adana's mayoralty.  Leftist 
parties and DEHAP are reportedly exploring 
negotiations with CHP for an alliance.  Local 
observers predict that, in part because of 
national incumbency, and in part, because of the 
conservative nature of Southeast Turkey's 
population, AK Party should do well in the 
upcoming local elections.  The southeast Turkey 
immigrant bloc and the bloc in support of Durak , 
most observers believe, will be determinative. 
Since these two voting blocs, according to the 
mayoral official, will go with either CHP or AK 
party, it is shaping up to be a two-party race. 
 
 
GAZIANTEP:  TWO HORSE RACE-CHP VS AK PARTY 
 
 
5.  (SBU) Consulate personnel met with a 
prominent Gaziantep businessperson and long-time 
newspaper owner to discuss his perspective on the 
possible outcomes of local elections. Like in 
Adana, it appears to be a two-horse race between 
CHP and the AK Party. According to the business 
contact, CHP may nominate the current Gaziantep 
mayor, Celal Dogan, to run on its ticket and the 
newspaper owner believed the yet-to-be announced 
AK Party candidate could strongly challenge 
Dogan.  The reason, he said, was that many of the 
recent immigrants to Gaziantep from southeastern 
Turkey would likely vote AK Party rather than 
DEHAP, as they might have in their former 
districts farther east (Note: he estimated about 
800,000 immigrants to Gaziantep from southeast 
Turkey in recent years).  He noted that the 
Islamic political parties had provided services 
to underprivileged areas in order to secure their 
votes.  He also noted that the immigrants 
practiced a more conservative Islam and 
identified with the AK party for this reason. 
The businessman expressed concern at the prospect 
of an AK Party mayor and expressed his belief 
that, if that were the case, his newspaper would 
be subject to increased political pressure.  He 
related that most newspapers in Turkey cater to 
the incumbent party to secure economic advantage. 
 
 
6.  (SBU) The mixed economic atmosphere in which 
the Gaziantep elections will be held is typical 
of the larger cities in southeast Turkey.  On the 
day of the meeting with this businessman, 
consulate personnel also attended the opening of 
the Gaziantep Shoe Fair.  State Minister 
Abdullatif Sener opened the fair, an impressive 
collection of regional Turkish manufacturers and 
importers.  Sener's appearance highlighted the 
importance the current government ascribes to the 
Gaziantep commercial scene and the possible gain 
of an AKP mayoralty there. In contrast, our 
business contact related how he had opened a 
bookstore in Gaziantep and quickly lost 300,000 
USD because nobody purchases any books.  He 
attributed this to a lack of both money and 
education. Most contacts agreed that the AK Party 
in Gaziantep is very wealthy and yet their 
potential new voting bloc may be those recent 
immigrants from southeast Turkey who have little 
money or education. 
 
 
AK PARTY'S PLAN--WILL IT BE MUTLU OR GUZEL (HAPPY 
OR BEAUTIFUL)? 
 
 
7.  (SBU) Another business contact in Gaziantep 
(long known to both the Embassy and the 
Consulate) also related to consulate personnel 
the AK party strategy for the upcoming mayoral 
race.  The current mayor, Celal Dogan, recently 
re-joined CHP and is considered a possible 
candidate for either the Gaziantep or Istanbul 
mayoralty.  He stands a good chance of winning in 
Istanbul, the businessman asserted, because there 
is a "large and influential population of voters 
from Gaziantep" who are currently living and 
doing business in Istanbul.  On the other hand, 
he still remains popular in Gaziantep should he 
run for re-election. 
 
 
8.  (SBU) AK party reportedly will nominate 
PETKIM official Mustafa Mutlu if CHP chooses 
Dogan to run in Istanbul, believing that he has a 
solid chance of winning without Dogan's 
competition.  If Dogan runs on the CHP ticket in 
Gaziantep, it is thought that Dr. Asim Guzel will 
be the AK party nominee.  With Dogan in the race, 
our local contact says that AK party officials 
project that their candidate is a long shot to 
win anyway and the businessman believed that it 
serves AK party interests to run their stronger 
candidates elsewhere. 
 
 
FARTHER EAST: DIYARBAKIR AND BEYOND 
 
 
9.  (SBU) A human rights contact in Diyarbakir 
with broad regional contacts told PO on January 
19 that DEHAP is still in the driver seat in the 
Diyarbakir mayoralty race. He said DEHAP, 
nevertheless, was still not decided as to whether 
to re-endorse incumbent mayor Feridun Celik. 
While he saw AKP quite active in building its 
Diyarbakir base, their chances of success were 
slim unless DEHAP waited too long to pick a 
definitive candidate to head its ticket. 
 
 
10.  (SBU)  Further afield in the Southeast, he 
saw some changes brewing.  He said AKP might win 
in Gaziantep and definitely believed that DEHAP 
would lose in Elazig and Bingol, either to 
popular local independents, ANAP or DYP 
candidates.  He also noted DEHAP and SHP might 
run joint candidates in many smaller southeast 
Turkey mayoral races.  Nevertheless, he said that 
conventional wisdom still held that most 
southeast mayoral races were DEHAP's to lose 
(Comment: DEHAP's popularity in southeast Turkey 
is ideologically-based, not personality-based or 
even performance-based.  In most cases, the DEHAP 
candidate chosen is of little interest to the 
voters. End comment). 
 
 
HOW DEHAP MIGHT LOSE SOME. 
 
 
11.  (SBU) A longtime consulate contact without 
political affiliation in Cizre explained that 
DEHAP-affiliated politicians in Cizre had been so 
either "tortured" (he did not specify how) or 
harassed by local Jandarma and TNP that Cizre 
DEHAP may well opt to run a Diyarbakir resident 
on the DEHAP mayoral ticket.  He predicted this 
approach was likely to fail since local aghas 
rarely embraced outsiders, even fellow Kurds, and 
may opt to support a local AKP candidate. 
 
 
12. (U) Comment: We will continue to try to gauge 
whether the AK bandwagon in the rest of Turkey is 
as strong in a region which has become more 
Kurdish nationalist over the past 15 years and 
where local feudal landlords and tribal leaders 
can still be swayed by the highest bidder.  End 
comment. 
REID